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April 1, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Rumors Swirl over Libyan Defections - Syria Awaits Friday Protests - Nuclear Evacuation Will Be Long Term - Showdown Nears in Ivory Coast Top of the Agenda: Rumors Swirl over Libyan Defections The recent secret visit of Mohammed Ismail (NYT), a senior aide to one of Muammar al-Qaddafi's sons, to the UK has fueled the conjecture around the beleaguered Qaddafi regime following several departures of senior figures. The reason for the visit remains unclear, and it is reported that Ismail will return to Libya. The episode comes on the heels of the purported defection (TOI) of top Libyan official Ali Abdussalam el-Treki, and the confirmed defection of foreign minister Moussa Koussa. There were also rumors that the Libyan prime minister, speaker of parliament, and oil minister had quit the government. Pro-Qaddafi and anti-regime forces are locked in hostilities (al-Jazeera) on the outskirts of Libya's eastern oil town of Brega. The two opposing factions have been fighting across a strip of land between Ajdabiya and Bin Jawad for weeks. In congressional testimony, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen acknowledged the possibility of a protracted conflict and/or stalemate (FT). Gates said that if the decision was made to arm the rebels, "there are plenty of sources for it other than the United States." The Wall Street Journal reports that rebel forces suffer from a lack of central command, poor training, and weapons deficiencies. Analysis: On his CFR blog Pressure Points, Elliott Abrams writes that during his congressional testimony, Gates overstepped his authority and undermined the president's role as commander in chief. In the New Yorker, Steve Coll advises coalition forces to refrain from arming the rebels because it falls outside of the humanitarian mission. In the Daily Beast, CFR's Leslie H. Gelb examines the tension between the White House and the Defense Department over the military strategy in Libya. Background: Read President Obama's speech to the nation on Libya on March 28, 2011. This UN Security Council resolution regarding Libya was passed on March 17, 2011. Multimedia: In this video from the Guardian, British Foreign Secretary William Hague confirms that his Libyan counterpart, Moussa Koussa, has defected to the UK, and asks, "Who will be next?" MIDDLE EAST: Syria Awaits Friday Protests In what has been dubbed "Friday of Martyrs," Syrian opposition movements are calling for mass protests against the Assad regime (al-Jazeera) to follow prayers today. Assad defied public expectations in his speech on Wednesday, failing to announce sweeping reforms, including an immediate end to the country's emergency law. Syria's unrest isn't widespread enough to lead to a government ouster, with the Assad regime enjoying solid support from the country's Alawite leadership and Sunni majority, says expert Joshua Landis. Yemen: Analysts expect massive rival demonstrations to descend on the capital of Sanaa today, following two months of political stalemate between supporters and opponents of the Saleh regime (AFP). Israel: A senior advisor for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Russian officials on a secret trip to deter Moscow (Haaretz) from supporting the EU's plan for the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. The two-state plan is expected to be proposed by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom in two weeks. PACIFIC RIM: Nuclear Evacuation Will Be Long Term Japanese authorities said the roughly seventy thousand people evacuated from the twelve-mile zone surrounding the Fukushima nuclear plant (RTT) will not be permitted to return for months. Many of the evacuees currently reside in massive temporary shelters provided by the government. As Japan struggles to control problems at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, it also must grapple with questions about nuclear power in the face of immediate and long-term energy needs. China: China launched its first onshore yuan options trading (Reuters), which analysts say will allow greater exchange rate flexibility. Such trading has long been available offshore, but the move is Beijing's "boldest attempt" to provide investors with greater tools to hedge in the currency market. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India Closes Population Gap with China According to preliminary results from its latest national census (Guardian), India added 181 million people in the last decade, and is now home to 17 percent of the world's population. China is still the most populous country, with 1.34 billion people, but India is closing the gap with 1.21 billion. Afghanistan: Six U.S. soldiers from the Army's 101st Airborne (CNN) were killed this week after fighting in the northeastern Kunar province. AFRICA: Rival Showdown Nears in Ivory Coast Forces loyal to the UN-recognized president of Ivory Coast (Bloomberg) Alassane Ouattara have launched a fresh assault to oust his rival, Laurent Gbagbo, from the presidential residence of Abidjan. UN peacekeepers claim there is a "mass exodus" from the city of four million, as civilians try to escape the violence. On his CFR blog Africa in Transition, John Campbell discusses the deteriorating violence in the Ivory Coast and the potential end to Gbagbo's illegal regime. AMERICAS: Tea Party Holds Hard Line on Budget Members of the GOP's Tea Party said they would be willing to accept a government shutdown (NYT) in order to force their demands of greater spending cuts above the $33 billion already targeted by members of both parties. Mexico: Mexico's attorney general, Arturo Chavez, resigned on Thursday, citing personal reasons (BBC). Chavez is set to be replaced by Marisela Morales, who will be the first woman to hold the position in Mexico. In this Council Special Report, David A. Shirk examines the Mexican drug war, assesses the prospects for U.S. support, and offers recommendations for reducing the potential of state failure. EUROPE: Irish Banks Approach Nationalization Following a $34 billion loss in the latest round of "stress tests," Ireland's top six banks (WSJ) are likely to become government-controlled. Officials say the banking sector will be restructured around two "pillar banks." Portugal: President Anibal Cavaco Silva announced urgent elections following the prime minister's resignation and the dissolution of parliament. The political crisis comes as the country faces bleak news of deficit woes and the increasing likelihood of a financial bailout (DeutscheWelle). EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook. Privacy Policy The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties. Council on Foreign Relations 58 East 68th Street New York, NY 10065 Tel. +1 212.434.9400 Fax: +1 212.434.9800 Learn about this and other newsletters offered by the Council on Foreign Relations. To pause your subscription, to switch between HTML and text-only versions of the newsletter, to change your email address, or to unsubscribe, click here.

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