Selasa, 05 April 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

April 5, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Violent Standoff in Ivory Coast
- Libyan Diplomats Stand Behind Qaddafi
- Karzai Orders Probe of Quran Protests
- UN Plane Crashes in DR Congo

Top of the Agenda: Violent Standoff in Ivory Coast

Fighters loyal to Ivory Coast President-elect Alassane Ouattara began another offensive on Monday, moving on central Abidjan (WSJ), while UN and French forces jointly attacked positions held by strongman Laurent Gbagbo. UN officials claimed the armed forces of disputed incumbent president Gbagbo were attacking civilians and peacekeeping personnel. The BBC reports that Ouattara's forces have surrounded Gbagbo's compound (BBC), and that he remains bunkered with his family. Gbagbo has refused to leave office even though the Ivorian election commission declared him the loser of November's run-off vote, and the UN certified the result. Gbagbo's soldiers proposed a ceasefire (al-Jazeera) in the face of the overwhelming offensive, though gunfire could still be heard around the presidential residence. Diplomats appointed by Ouattara claim that Gbagbo is in the process of negotiating a surrender. French military officials (Reuters) say they will intervene in Ivory Coast only as long as the UN asks for their contribution.

Analysis:

Conflict in Ivory Coast is nearing a head, with internationally recognized presidential winner Ouattara poised to triumph. But CFR's Jendayi Frazer notes that inaction by the UN Security Council is "hypocrisy," particularly in light of its stance on Libya.

This editorial from the Guardian argues that responsibility to protect loomed large in the debate about intervening in Libya, but was curiously absent from Ivory Coast.

MIDDLE EAST: Libyan Diplomats Stand Behind Qaddafi

Libyan Information Minister Moussa Ibrahim said his country is ready to discuss reforms such as elections or referendums, but that the resignation of leader Muammar al-Qaddafi (DeutscheWelle) is "non-negotiable."

France, Britain, and other NATO nations are now heading the Libya mission, but strains among members could be amplified if NATO tries to increase support for the rebels and the coalition still hasn't clarified its objectives, says CFR's Charles Kupchan.

Yemen: In another round of violence, Yemeni security forces opened fire on anti-government protestors (al-Jazeera) in the city of Taiz, just one day after fifteen were killed in similar demonstrations.

PACIFIC RIM: Japan Faces Major Reconstruction

The scale of destruction to Japan's economy from the earthquake, tsunami, and Fukushima nuclear crisis is becoming apparent, with some communities facing a reconstruction effort (Asahi) comparable to that following World War II.

China: Britain, the United States, and the EU have joined the international outcry over the detention of Chinese artist Ai Weiwei (Guardian) and the renewed crackdown on Chinese dissidents and activists.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Karzai Orders Probe of Quran Protests

Afghan President Hamid Karzai ordered a probe to investigate the protests (BBC) that began April 1 in reaction to a Florida pastor's burning of the Quran, leading to the killing of dozens of people, including seven UN staff.

Karzai fanned the flames sparked by the Quran burning, which underscores a clash of juridical cultures, writes C. Christine Fair on ForeignPolicy.com.

Kazakhstan: Western observers criticized President Nursultan A. Nazarbayev's landslide victory (NYT) on April 4, saying they witnessed coercive measures, ballot-box stuffing, and opposition candidates who openly supported the incumbent.

AFRICA: UN Plane Crashes in DR Congo

A United Nations plane crashed (NYT) as it was landing in Kinshasa, Congo, killing thirty-two of the thirty-three people aboard. Officials said the cause of the crash was not yet known, but the plane was landing in inclement weather.

AMERICAS: Human Rights Activists Call for Police Investigation

Human rights activists have called for an investigation of the police role in the disappearance of four civilian men in the violent northern border city of Ciudad Juarez, raising questions about the controversial new security chief (LAT).

In a new Council Special Report, expert David Shirk says the United States should help Mexico address its pressing crime problems through nontraditional methods that lead to stronger political institutions and a robust civil society.

Haiti: Preliminary results show singer Michel "Sweet Micky" Martelly as the winner of Haiti's presidential run-off election (BBC), beating former first lady Mirlande Manigat.

EUROPE: Portugal Downgraded by Moody's

Moody's Investors Service downgraded its rating on Portuguese debt (NYT), to Baa1 from A3, warning that the country's next government would have to turn to its European partners for aid "as a matter of urgency."

France: After a two-year search, French authorities announced they found the wreckage of Flight AF477 (Guardian), which crashed over the Atlantic traveling from Rio to Paris, killing 228 passengers.

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