Kamis, 07 April 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

April 7, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Gbagbo Refuses to Stand Down
- Gulf Council Seeks to Broker Saleh Exit
- Pakistan Rejects White House Report
- Shutdown Looms in Budget Battle

Top of the Agenda: Gbagbo Refuses to Stand Down

Ivorian strongman and disputed presidential incumbent Laurent Gbagbo (BBC) refused to capitulate to a coalition of French, UN, and Ivorian opposition forces despite his men being reduced to under a thousand. Gbagbo remains bunkered with two hundred soldiers at the presidential residence in the city of Abidjan. On Wednesday, Gbagbo's defenders were able to repel an onslaught led by fighters supporting the internationally recognized Ivorian president Alassane Ouattara (al-Jazeera). Spokesmen say a second attack on the Gbagbo compound is being organized.

In the battle for control of Abidjan, French military forces (Reuters) staged a rescue of the Japanese ambassador and his staff after armed men broke into the official residence. French airstrikes also neutralized attacks from Gbagbo's men on the French embassy. African Union officials claim that several African countries have offered to host Gbagbo's exile (CNN), although none were specified. The Red Cross chartered aircraft to deliver supplies, but emphasized the humanitarian crisis is deteriorating. The International Criminal Court (NYT) says it will launch an investigation into "alleged crimes committed there by different parties to the conflict."

Analysis:

This article from the Irish Times suggests France may face an international backlash if it emerges that Ouattara's forces carried out a massacre.

CFR's Jendayi Frazer says the transfer of power would send an important message to Africa: "There's a lot at stake in a resolution of this crisis that allows for the elected president to govern."

In this article for ForeignPolicy.com, Elizabeth Dickenson ponders whether the ICC will investigate crimes against humanity in the Ivory Coast.

Background:

This timeline from al-Jazeera provides the West African nation's key events from its 1960 independence until the disputed 2010 vote.

Multimedia:

In this video from CNN, Mona Sadek from the Red Cross discusses the failing humanitarian situation in the Ivory Coast.

MIDDLE EAST: Gulf Council Seeks to Broker Saleh Exit

The six-member Gulf Cooperation Council is set to broker an agreement between the Saleh regime (Bloomberg) and Yemeni opposition groups that would involve the president's withdrawal from power. Daily anti-government protests continued across Yemen, with new clashes in Taiz that left one dead.

Libya: Rebels in the eastern city of Ajdabiya (BBC) say their forces were struck accidentally by NATO fire, killing thirteen. Rebel forces began fleeing the city on Wednesday after a heavy assault from regime forces.

In testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, CFR President Richard N. Haass spoke to the U.S. approach in the ongoing civil war in Libya, and offered recommendations for policy going forward.

Bahrain: Aid group Doctors Without Borders (al-Jazeera) denounced Bahraini armed forces for targeting health facilities and "paralyzing" the nation's hospitals. The island kingdom remains under a state of emergency, following a March 16 crackdown on anti-government protests in the capital of Manama.

PACIFIC RIM: Japan May Expand Fukushima Evacuation Zone

Japanese authorities said they are considering an expansion of the current twelve-mile evacuation zone around the stricken Fukushima nuclear plant (WSJ), citing the dangers of inhabitants facing prolonged exposure to lower levels of radiation.

On her CFR blog Asia Unbound, Sheila A. Smith discusses the efforts of the international aid community in providing support to disaster-stricken Japan.

China: Chinese police are investigating renowned Chinese artist Ai Weiwei (Guardian) on suspicion of "economic crimes." Ai's relatives denounced the charges as absurd. International human right groups claim the case is part of a wider crackdown to detail scores of activists and dissidents.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Rejects White House Report

Pakistan's army officials rejected the White House report (ANI) that claims the country's efforts at defeating the insurgency are inadequate and failing. Major General Athar Abbas said the report misinterprets the situation on the ground, particularly in Mohmand, a part of northwest Pakistan's tribal areas.

India: A hunger strike undertaken by Anna Hazare, a seventy-three-year-old follower of Gandhi, is putting pressure on the Indian government to toughen its anti-corruption laws (AFP). Hundreds of people joined the fasting in a show of support, while others led rallies and vigils.

AFRICA: Three Kenyans Appear at The Hague

Three Kenyan officials appeared before the International Criminal Court (Reuters) in connection with the violent unrest that followed 2007's disputed elections, which killed 1,200 people. The charges include crimes against humanity, murder, forcible transfer, and persecution.

AMERICAS: Shutdown Looms in Budget Battle

Following a late-night meeting with Democratic and Republican leaders to discuss a budget compromise (WashPost), President Obama said it would be "inexcusable" to allow a government shutdown to take effect. Lawmakers said some progress was made, but no deal was worked out.

The mounting budget battle in Washington and looming federal debt limit raises concerns about the ability of U.S. lawmakers to tackle the country's enormous deficit and debt, writes CFR's James Lindsay.

Mexico: Mexican authorities found at least fifty-nine bodies in mass graves (al-Jazeera) in the northern state of Tamaulipas. The site is where suspected members of the Zetas drug gang massacred scores of migrants last summer.

EUROPE: Portugal Calls for EU Bailout

The Portuguese government filed an application with the European Commission requesting a financial bailout (CNN). It would be the third nation to receive aid after Greece and Ireland.

Italy: Italian authorities will grant "humanitarian" permits (AFP) to thousands of Tunisian migrants, which will allow them to travel around Europe. Officials say more than twenty-five thousand, mostly Tunisian, migrants have landed in Italy so far this year--mainly on the island of Lampedusa.

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