Senin, 14 Februari 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 14, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Thousands Return to Tahrir for New Protests
- Iran Opposition Plans Protests
- China Trade Surplus Declines
- Algeria to End Emergency Law

Top of the Agenda: Thousands Return to Tahrir Square for New Protests

Despite Egyptian soldiers clearing out Tahrir Square (Haaretz), thousands of people surged back into Cairo's central square on Monday, including police marching in an "unusual show of solidarity" with protestors. In addition, protestors from the banking, transport, and tourism industries (BBC) demonstrated to demand better pay and working conditions. Most of the activists withdrew from the square on Sunday after embracing an announcement by the new ruling military council that it would dissolve parliament and suspend the constitution following the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. Experts explain that the Egyptian junta (CNN) now has to tackle the economic troubles that fed the revolt, including massive youth unemployment and economic underdevelopment. The weeks of unrest essentially shut down Egypt's economy.

The military has set a rapid pace for transition to civilian rule, including elections in six months and the immediate convening of a jury to submit constitutional amendments (NYT) in ten days. Following the events in Egypt, similar opposition protests are spreading across the region (WSJ) including in Yemen, Bahrain, Algeria, Iran, and Palestine.

Analysis:

The military leadership now running Egypt emerged from two weeks of anti-government protests with its reputation intact, but it has yet to prove commitment to the reforms demanded by the public, writes CFR's Steven Cook.

This issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa.

Events in Egypt highlight the need for the U.S. government to drop double standards on governance and human rights issues when dealing with friendly dictatorships, writes CFR's Mark Lagon.

Background:

Following more than two weeks of protests, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak stepped down as president, ending three decades in power. Explore this BBC News timeline of key events leading up to this moment.

Read a collection of Foreign Affairs articles on Egypt, including essays by Anwar el-Sadat, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, and Fouad Ajami.

MIDDLE EAST: Iran Opposition Plans Protests

Iranian police deployed across Tehran (al-Jazeera) in expectation of activist rallies supporting the unrest in Egypt. Authorities said they fear a repeat of the protests that flared after 2009's controversial election.

Continued unrest in Egypt is stirring tensions between Iran's hardliners and opposition movement and stoking concerns that an Iran-friendly Egyptian regime could upset the regional balance of power.

PACIFIC RIM: China Trade Surplus Declines

China's trade surplus (FT) dropped last month to its lowest level since April 2010. Analysts cited a rise in commodity prices that pushed import numbers close to new highs.

In an op-ed, CFR's Evan A. Feigenbaum says structural changes are afoot in the United States and China that will obstruct efforts by the two nations to form complementary policies.

Japan: According to the Japanese government, the country's economy slipped to the third largest in the world (CNN), overtaken by China. Japan's economy was valued at $5.5 trillion dollars in 2010, while China was at $5.9 trillion.

In this op-ed for Wall Street Journal Asia, David S. Abraham asks whether Japan's prime minister can reopen the world's third largest economy to competition.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Bodyguard Indicted in Taseer Murder

A Pakistani court charged Mumtaz Qadri, the bodyguard of liberal politician Salman Taseer, with murder and terrorism. In prior statements, Qadri confessed to killing Taseer because of his support of blasphemy law reform (AFP).

India: Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna faces criticism from the country's main opposition for reading the wrong speech at the UN (BBC). Krishna read about three minutes of a speech written for the Portuguese foreign minister before being corrected.

AFRICA: Algeria to End Emergency Law

After demonstrations across the country calling for a change of government, the Algerian foreign minister said the country will end its nineteen-year emergency law (al-Jazeera).

South Africa: A South African businessman, Brian Roach, was arrested in Johannesburg on terrorism charges after he threatened to spread foot-and-mouth disease (Guardian) in the United States and the UK. Police believe Roach was motivated by the plight of white farmers.

AMERICAS: White House Projects Deficit to Top $1.65 Trillion

The White House projects that the federal deficit will rise to $1.65 trillion in fiscal year 2011, the highest amount ever. The new estimate is part of the president's proposed budget (WSJ) for fiscal year 2012, which will be released today.

Colombia: Colombia's FARC rebels (Reuters) released another hostage, bringing the total to four in the past week. The recent releases have prompted rumors of possible talks between the government and leftist faction.

EUROPE: Italian Offer to Police Tunisia Coastline Denied

Tunisia rejected an offer from Rome to deploy Italian police within the North African country. According to local authorities, some five thousand refugees have arrived on the Italian island of Lampedusa (DeutscheWelle) since last week--many of whom are Tunisians seeking asylum in the wake of the recent political unrest.

Italy: Thousands of protestors marched in demonstrations across Italy to voice their opposition to Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who is in the midst of a sex scandal. Analysts suggest the activism captures the frustration of Italians angered at the role of women (NYT) in Berlusconi's Italy.

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