Jumat, 25 Februari 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 25, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- UN and NATO to Meet on Libya
- Iraq 'Day of Rage' Protests Turn Violent
- U.S. Military to Investigate 'Psy-Ops' team
- Voters Head to Polls in Ireland

Top of the Agenda: UN and NATO to Meet on Libya

Momentum gathered for a collective international response (NYT) to the violent unrest in Libya, as the UN Security Council prepared to draft a proposal for sanctions against the nation's leadership and NATO called an emergency session in Brussels. French and British leaders called for an arms embargo and a war crimes investigation (WSJ). UN human rights officials reported mass killings of thousands of Libyans and recommended urgent action to end the crackdown. Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi (Guardian) has used aircraft, tanks, and foreign mercenaries in eight days of violent unrest--the bloodiest of the revolutions to roil the Arab region. Anti-Qaddafi forces and defectors (al-Jazeera) from the Libyan army have gained control over several cities in the east. Al-Jazeera reports that military commanders in the country's west, where Qaddafi still largely has control, may also defect.

Analysis:

BBC Middle East analyst Dr. Omar Ashour looks at several possible scenarios for Libya's future as well as the political obligations of the West.

On his blog Pressure Points, CFR's Elliott Abrams calls for a greater assertion of U.S. might in Libya, citing China's example. “We too should be moving ships and planes, and visibly taking the steps that show our own power,” he writes.

It's unclear whether Qaddafi's regime will survive after a failed, but brutal, crackdown on protesters in Libya. But if Qaddafi goes, CFR's Robert Danin says Libya lacks the elements needed for a smooth and peaceful transition of power.

Multimedia:

In this CFR podcast, Robert McMahon and James Lindsay note the ways in which the international community has roundly condemned Qaddafi's effort to cling to power, but no one knows what might replace his regime.

In this podcast from the Economist, the University of Exeter's Tim Niblock explains the historical background of the crisis in Libya and what the future might hold.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraq 'Day of Rage' Protests Turn Violent

Iraqi security forces killed five people in an attempt to break up anti-government protests (Canadian Press) in the country's north.

The U.S. troop surge in Iraq helped decrease violence and set the stage for the eventual U.S. withdrawal, writes Emma Sky in this article for Foreign Affairs.

View CFR's interactive timeline of the Iraq War.

Yemen: Thousands of anti-government protestors, mostly students, mobbed the streets outside Sanaa University (CNN) calling for an end to President Ali Abdullah Saleh's regime. Saleh loyalists plan to hold counter-demonstrations in support of the government.

PACIFIC RIM: Seoul Charges Somali Pirates

South Korean prosecutors pressed six charges, including maritime robbery and attempted murder, against the five pirates (Yonhap) arrested for hijacking a Korean freighter in the Arabian Sea last month. Seoul's naval operation killed eight other pirates and saved all twenty-one crew members.

Japan: In its third such move in as many years, Toyota announced it will recall 2.17 million cars due to continuing gas pedal issues (NYDailyNews).

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India Budgets $12 Billion for Railway

India's railway minister unveiled the government's plan for the highest-ever annual investment of $12.71 billion for rail upgrades (WSJ) for 2011-2012.

Afghanistan: According to the BBC, Afghan investigators claim NATO forces killed sixty-five civilians, including fifty women and children, in an operation in the Kunar Province (BBC) last week. NATO denies the allegations, suggesting pro-Taliban villagers are creating propaganda.

There are clear indications of direct U.S. talks with the Taliban to end violence in Afghanistan, says expert Steve Coll. But the process is fraught with challenges posed by all parties to the conflict, he says.

AFRICA: Civil War Fears in Ivory Coast

Analysts say Ivory Coast is moving closer to all out civil war (VOA) as a ceasefire ends in the western countryside and fighting continues to rage in capital Abidjan.

AMERICAS: U.S. Military to Investigate 'Psy-Ops' team

The top U.S. commander in Afghanistan said the military intends to launch an investigation into whether Lt. Gen. William Caldwell inappropriately used a psychological operations team (WashPost) to manipulate visiting U.S. senators into providing more funding for the war. The initial allegations stemmed from a Rolling Stone article.

United States: Aerospace giant Boeing (al-Jazeera) beat out European rivals for a $30 billion contract for 179 new U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft. The new planes will replace fifty-year-old KC-135 Stratotankers.

EUROPE: Voters Head to Polls in Ireland

Irish voters go to the polls in an election that analysts say will be dominated by economic woes and a widely hated bailout. The government's removal would make it the first to fall victim to the EU debt crisis (AFP).

Brussels: EU ministers denied Italian requests for financial aid, which Rome sought to soften the impact of immigrants fleeing the turmoil in North Africa. Italian officials said as many as 1.5 million refugees (DeutscheWelle) could flee Libya.

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