Senin, 28 Februari 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 28, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- World Mobilizes Against Libyan Regime
- Oman Protestors Rally for Third Day
- China Pushes Back on Protestors
- Gates Cautions Against Future Land Wars

Top of the Agenda: World Mobilizes Against Libyan Regime

Following UN sanctions announced over the weekend, Western countries continue to mobilize against Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi. France announced the dispatch of two planes loaded with aid destined for Benghazi (BBC). The European Union is also set to announce sanctions, including equipment bans, travel restrictions, and asset freezes. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to begin crisis negotiations in Geneva where the UN Human Rights Council (al-Jazeera) is gathering. Qaddafi forces are centered in and around Tripoli (Guardian), while rebels control vast swaths of the country's east. Despite their advances, opposition forces have been unable to crack the regime's hold on the capital. In remarks to the press, Qaddafi officials blamed Islamic radicals (NYT) for conspiring to overthrow the regime and supporting chaos.

The chief economist for the International Energy Agency suggested Libya's crisis and the resulting hike in oil prices (WSJ) could threaten the European economic recovery. Oil has been trading at its highest prices in over two years.

Analysis:

Though the turmoil in the Arab world has "excited" most Palestinians, expert Rashid Khalidi says U.S.-led negotiations for a two-state solution has foundered and the U.S. block of a UN resolution on settlements could mean the negotiation process is "seeing its last days."

In this article for Foreign Affairs, Robert H. Pelletreau argues this is a threshold moment for the entire Middle East. It is still unclear how far revolution will spread and what will come of it, but the president's deft handling of the crisis has strengthened his foreign policy record.

While Qaddafi's regime is still surviving the Libyan unrest, CFR's Robert Danin says that if Qaddafi goes, the country lacks the elements needed for a smooth and peaceful transition of power.

MIDDLE EAST: Oman Protestors Rally for Third Day

Anti-government protestors took to the streets for a third consecutive day, clashing with police in the industrial town of Sohar (al-Jazeera). At least one person was killed and twenty injured.

Tunisia: Tunisia's interim prime minister, Mohammed Ghannouchi, stepped down following renewed unrest (al-Jazeera) that has left at least five dead since Friday. Ghannouchi had previously said he would remain in office until elections could be organized this summer.

Israel: Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Syrian President Bashar Assad is ready to consider a peace deal, and would find a willing partner in Israel (Haaretz).

PACIFIC RIM: China Pushes Back on Protestors

China deployed its security forces in Beijing following online activists' calls for a "Jasmine Revolution" (WSJ) for the second Sunday in a row. China has detained dozens of political activists and tightened Internet controls for fear of the kind of unrest roiling the Mideast and North Africa.

Read CFR's Elizabeth Economy testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on the roots of protests in China and tactics used by the Chinese government in response.

South Korea: The United States and South Korea are set to initiate the first of two joint military drills (CNN). North Korea said the exercises are preparation for an invasion and vowed to counter to any provocation.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India Seeks Agriculture Reform

In an attempt to relieve heavy food price inflation (FT), India announced it will overhaul its struggling farm sector. The nation's finance minister called for greater investment in agriculture in order to increase productivity and expand storage facilities.

Afghanistan: Four NATO servicemen (AP) were killed in attacks across Afghanistan, as commanders expect violence to increase with the warming weather. NATO troops are trying to improve security in the country's south and east so the Afghan government and international community can strengthen governance and development work.

There are clear indications of direct U.S. talks with the Taliban to end violence in Afghanistan, says expert Steve Coll. But the process is fraught with challenges posed by all parties to the conflict, he says.

AFRICA: Ivory Coast Closer to Civil War

Belarus delivered three attack helicopters to forces led by Laurent Gbagbo, violating an international arms embargo and pushing the Ivory Coast to the brink of civil war (BBC).

AMERICAS: Gates Cautions Against Future Land Wars

In a speech at West Point, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates (LATimes) advised against future large land wars like those in Afghanistan and Iraq. Analysts say his comments could be a judgment on the military's missions over the last ten years and a projection that future conflicts would look much different.

In this op-ed for Foreign Policy, Michael Zenko discusses the future of war and where the public and experts stand on the issue.

Mexico: At least twenty-eight people were killed in suspected drug-related violence (CanadianPress) in northern Mexico over the weekend. More than thirty-five thousand people have died due to such violence since 2006.

EUROPE: French Foreign Minister Resigns

French Foreign Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said she will leave her post after only three months following controversy associated with her statements that France could help Tunisia (DeutscheWelle) quash anti-government protests during the "Jasmine Revolution."

Italy: After a ten-month break, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi and several executives from his company Mediaset (FT) are back on trial to face tax fraud charges. Berlusconi denies the charges and accuses the legal system of abuse and trying to remove him from power.

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