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February 8, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Protestors and Mubarak Locked in Test of Wills - UK Foreign Secretary to Tour Mideast - North and South Korea Open Talks - U.S.-Pakistan Diplomatic Freeze over Murder Suspect Top of the Agenda: Protestors and Mubarak Locked in Test of Wills Tens of thousands of peaceful protestors surged back into Egypt's central square on Tuesday to break a stalemate with the government of President Hosni Mubarak and bring an immediate end to his thirty-year regime (WashPost). In an effort to appease the opposition, newly appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman announced the creation of two committees to oversee constitutional changes that would open presidential eligibility rules and impose term limits--a move some observers see as the first concrete steps to reform (Haaretz). Since the protests began over three weeks ago, Mubarak has appointed a vice president for the first time, reshuffled his cabinet, and stated that he will not seek another term as president (CNN) in September. However, some experts suggest Mubarak is relying on classic stalling tactics in dealing with dissidents. Leading opposition groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, stand firm in their demands for Mubarak's immediate ouster and remain skeptical of the regime's efforts at negotiations (Guardian) and its call for “normalcy.” Analysts say the government is unable to remove the protestors forcefully, so its strategy is to diminish the movement's status. In recent comments, U.S. President Barack Obama implied that positive steps (BBC) are being made: "Egypt has to negotiate a path, and I think they're making progress." The protests in Egypt have inspired Iran's opposition (NYT) to challenge the hard-line leadership to permit peaceful protests. Analysis: As Egypt's opposition movement urges new protests, the Egyptian army has emerged as a key player in questions about a replacement government for President Mubarak, says expert Bruce K. Rutherford. By playing the role of both arsonist and firefighter, the Egyptian government has forced protestors fleeing the regime to seek refuge with the regime, possibly ensuring its survival, writes Joshua Stacher in Foreign Affairs. This issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa. Background: The anti-government protests in Egypt will likely mean a greater political role for the Muslim Brotherhood, analysts say. But this Backgrounder notes the divide in views over whether the Islamist group will choose a path of moderation or extremism. This CFR Contingency Planning Memo discusses political instability in Egypt and assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take. Read a collection of Foreign Affairs articles on Egypt, including essays by Anwar el-Sadat, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, and Fouad Ajami. MIDDLE EAST: UK Foreign Secretary to Tour Mideast, North Africa British Foreign Secretary William Hague will meet with Tunisia's new interim government in the first leg of a three-day, five-nation trip to the Middle East and North Africa to advocate greater political openness for the region (UKPA). In this op-ed for ForeignPolicy.com, CFR Fellow Stephen Sestanovich discusses the three changes coming to President Barack Obama's approach to the Middle East. PACIFIC RIM: North and South Korea Open Talks In their first dialogue since Pyongyang shelled a South Korean island, military officers from the two countries held preliminary talks (Yonhap) to lay the foundation for a higher-level summit. Seoul remained firm in demanding an apology for the North's aggressions last year. Myanmar: Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi urged the international community to reevaluate the economic sanctions (BBC) imposed on the regime following military junta abuses. Suu Kyi was released from house arrest in November after Myanmar's first election in twenty years. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: U.S.-Pakistan Diplomatic Freeze over Murder Suspect The United States suspended bilateral relations with Pakistan until Islamabad releases Raymond Davis, an employee in the U.S. consulate in Lahore who was arrested for shooting two Pakistani men last month (Dawn). Pakistan's stability is of great consequence to regional and international security. Examine the roots of its challenges, what it means for the region and the world, and explore some plausible futures for the country in CFR's Crisis Guide: Pakistan. Pakistan: U.S. agencies have failed to record progress from billions of dollars in aid given to Pakistan (AP) over the past few years, including $4 billion since 2009. The government report claims staffing problems in the U.S. embassy in Islamabad have hindered effective oversight. AFRICA: Bashir Endorses Sudan Independence Vote Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir formally supported the final outcome of Sudan's referendum on independence (SudanTribune). Almost 99 percent of voters opted to secede from the north. Ivory Coast: Armed militia loyal to incumbent Laurent Gbagbo killed at least six civilians in an Abidjan neighborhood where Alassane Ouattara, the UN-certified winner of the November 2010 presidential election, garners wide support. The UN estimates that at least 260 people have been killed in post-election violence (Reuters). AMERICAS: U.S. Seeks Brazil Support Against Yuan In a visit to Brazil on Monday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner sought Brazil's support in urging China to allow its currency to appreciate. Many large exporting nations argue that China's currency interventions lead to artificially low prices for the country's exports and result in unfair competition in global trade (WSJ). Haiti: The Haitian government issued a new passport to former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide (BBC), allowing him to return from a seven-year exile in South Africa. Amid ongoing protests, current Haitian President Rene Preval announced he will remain in office an extra three months until Haiti's presidential runoff is complete. One year after Haiti's earthquake, a contested presidential election, the return of Baby Doc Duvalier, and problems with redevelopment hobble the country's efforts to rebuild, says Haitian philanthropist Jacques-Philippe Piverger. EUROPE: Islamists Claim Responsibility for Russia Airport Attack Doku Umarov, the leader of Russia's Islamist movement (Guardian), took responsibility for the bombings at Moscow's Domodedovo airport that killed thirty-six people. Umarov promised more bloodshed unless Russia withdraws from the Caucasus. UK: WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange returned to court for a second day of an extradition trial (NYT) to decide whether he will be removed to Sweden to face charges of sexual misconduct. EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook. Privacy Policy The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties. 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