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February 1, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Millions Called to March Against Mubarak - South and North Korea Agree to Talks - Judge Rebuffs Healthcare Reform - Irish PM Cowen Will Step Down Top of the Agenda: Millions Called to March Against Mubarak In what is expected to be the largest anti-Mubarak demonstration yet, hundreds of thousands of Egyptian protestors will hold a massive rally in central Cairo (WSJ), as well as smaller events across the country. The BBC reports that crowds are already "much bigger than on the previous seven days of protests," and organizers hope the throngs will surge to over one million. Military and civilian checkpoints have been set up to keep weapons out, and the atmosphere is peaceful (CNN). Activist leaders, including Mohamed ElBaradei, have called on Mubarak to resign by Friday. The mass gathering comes a day after the military emboldened the opposition movement by stating it would not use force against the protestors. According to a Western diplomat, the decision is believed to be part "choreographed maneuvers by the most senior people around Mr. Mubarak" to prepare for his eventual departure (NYT). In an effort to mitigate the unrest, Mubarak forced his cabinet to resign and offered one of his trusted advisors as a channel for negotiating with the opposition, but leaders of the opposition have stated he must leave the country before any dialogue can start. Despite the vehement demands for his ouster, Mubarak does not intend to announce his resignation (Haaretz). Analysis: This issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa. The United States should be quietly pressing for President Mubarak to step aside and allow for a transfer of authority in Egypt--either a constitutional reform process or a caretaker government, says CFR President Richard N. Haass. In this op-ed for the New York Times, Senator John Kerry discusses how the United States should prepare for a post-Mubarak Egypt. Foreign Affairs provides a collection of Egypt essays from their archives. Background: This CFR Contingency Planning Memo discusses political instability in Egypt and assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take. MIDDLE EAST: U.S. Calls for Halt to Iran Executions U.S. diplomats are urging Tehran to suspend executions following the hanging of a Dutch-Iranian woman (CNN) on charges of drug smuggling, which the International Campaign for Human Rights said were only an excuse to execute Zahra Bahrami. CFR presents an interactive timeline exploring the history of U.S.-Iran relations. PACIFIC RIM: South and North Korea Agree to Talks For the first time since Pyongyang shelled a South Korean border island last November, the two countries have agreed to hold working-level military talks (Yonhap) on February 8. The meeting is aimed at working out logistics for higher-level military talks, possibly at the level of defense ministers. This CFR Task Force Report identifies three elements of an internationally coordinated response to the threat posed by North Korea: denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and an attempt to resolve rather than simply manage the nuclear issue; regional cohesion, enabled by close U.S.-South Korea relations; and China's cooperation and active engagement. Australia: Northern Australia is preparing for the arrival of Cyclone Yasi (SkyNews), which could be one of the largest cyclones to ever hit the country. At over three hundred miles wide, it is likely to hit the coast of Queensland late on Wednesday. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Court Blocks U.S. Diplomat Release The Lahore High Court ruled that the government must not hand over a U.S. official suspected of shooting two Pakistani men (FT). The U.S. embassy demanded that Raymond Davis be released, citing diplomatic immunity. Pakistan's stability is of great consequence to regional and international security. Examine the roots of its challenges, what it means for the region and the world, and some plausible futures for the country in this CFR's Crisis Guide: Pakistan. Afghanistan: According to Mahmoud Karzai, President Hamid Karzai's brother and a leading shareholder in Kabul Bank (Guardian), there is an additional $375 million that accountants are trying to retrieve from businessmen who may have squandered the funds on poor investments--over twice the amount originally suspected. AFRICA: African Union Backs Delay to Hague Trial The African Union supported Kenya's appeal to delay the International Criminal Court trial (BBC) of those accused of organizing the post-election violence in 2007 that left 1,200 dead.The AU also supports deferring prosecution of Sudan President Omar al-Bashir over alleged war crimes committed in Darfur. Sudan: A Chinese spokesman called the referendum in Sudan (AFP), in which nearly 99 percent of south Sudan voted to separate from the north, an "important step towards implementation of the comprehensive peace agreement." China has been an influential supporter of Sudan's Bashir. CFR Fellow Joshua Kurlantzick discusses the reasons behind China's changing approach to foreign policy--and the ramifications of this change. AMERICAS: Judge Rebuffs Healthcare Reform A U.S. federal judge in Florida ruled unconstitutional a central part of the Obama healthcare reforms--the so-called "individual mandate" that requires Americans to buy health insurance. The decision continues the fight over whether the Obama administration has the authority to carry out the law designed to expand insurance to thirty-two million Americans (WSJ). Haiti: The Haitian government agreed to allow exiled former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide to apply for a passport (AP), though officials say he has yet to apply for one. Aristide has expressed his desire to return, a decision that, analysts say, could further destabilize the political deadlock in the ongoing presidential election. EUROPE: Irish PM Cowen Will Step Down Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen announced he will step down after twenty-three years as an MP and vowed not to contest a general election expected for February 25. Observers note that Cowen's government is likely to be the first eurozone government (FT) to lose power as a direct consequence of the currency-bloc's debt crisis. Belarus: In reaction to the brutal crackdown on protestors (DeutscheWelle) following the recent presidential election, European diplomats reinstated an asset freeze and visa ban on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and other top officials. The United States said it would also impose financial and travel restrictions on the country. EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook. Privacy Policy The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties. Council on Foreign Relations 58 East 68th Street New York, NY 10065 Tel. +1 212.434.9400 Fax: +1 212.434.9800 Learn about this and other newsletters offered by the Council on Foreign Relations. To pause your subscription, to switch between HTML and text-only versions of the newsletter, to change your email address, or to unsubscribe, click here.

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