Jumat, 04 Februari 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 4, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- A Prayer for Mubarak's Departure
- Algerians to Continue Protests
- World Food Prices at Record High
- Haiti Moves Forward With Runoff

Top of the Agenda: In Egypt, a Prayer for Mubarak's Departure

Egyptians protestors gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square for Friday prayers (al-Jazeera) and then resumed protests, which organizers have dubbed a "Day of Departure" for President Hosni Mubarak. As Egypt's uprising entered its eleventh day following a government crackdown, tens of thousands of Egyptians entered the square with baskets of bread, food and water, which seemed to indicate preparations for a long siege.

The Obama administration and Egyptian officials are reported to have discussed a proposal for Mubarak to step down immediately and cede power to a transitional government (NYT) headed by Vice President Omar Suleiman with the support of the Egyptian military. The White House, meanwhile, is officially denying press reports (WashPost) that it is negotiating a specific proposal. It is also unclear whether Mubarak will go along with such a plan. In an interview, he said he would like to retire but feared chaos (ABC) if he left early.

Analysis:

Former secretary of state James A. Baker says the crucial U.S. alliance with a politically stunted Egyptian regime poses major difficulties for the Obama administration as it tries to balance U.S. values with national interests.

Whatever change follows Egypt's political turbulence, any new government will have to confront the country's rampant unemployment, cronyism, and other factors impeding growth and development, in addition to constitutional reform, says CFR's Isobel Coleman.

This issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa.

Background:

This Backgrounder notes the divide in views over whether Muslim Brotherhood, likely to have a greater political role following the protests, will choose a path of moderation or extremism.

This CFR Contingency Planning Memo discusses political instability in Egypt and assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take.

Read a collection of Foreign Affairs articles on Egypt, including essays by Anwar el-Sadat, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, and Fouad Ajami.

MIDDLE EAST: Algerians to Continue Protests

Algerian opposition groups plan to continue protests next week despite promises from the president to heed some of their demands and allow more political freedoms (Reuters).

CFR's Ray Takeyh says in a New York Times op-ed that the protests engulfing the Middle East have challenged a central premise of many Arab regimes, namely that in exchange for political passivity, the leaders would provide stability and economic opportunities.

Iran: The wave of uprisings in Arab countries signifies an "Islamic awakening" (Reuters) similar to the 1979 Iranian revolution, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said.

PACIFIC RIM: Australia Budgets Cuts Needed to Pay for Storm Cleanup

Australia's government is preparing to make more budget cuts (ABC) to pay for its share of the damage caused by Cyclone Yasi in Queensland and has sent thousands of workers to help the recovery from one of state's worst storms.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Former PM Sein Named Burma's President

Thein Sein, who once served as prime minister for the outgoing military junta in Myanmar, has been named president and new head of state for the incoming civilian-led government. (Reuters)

India: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said corruption was tarnishing India's image overseas (AFP) following the arrest of his former telecom minister over an alleged $40 billion mobile phone license scam--the latest in a slew of government scandals.

AFRICA: Sudan Army Clashes with Soldiers

At least six people were killed when government troops fought southern soldiers in the Sudanese army who refused orders to move to northern Sudan out of fear they would be disarmed (Bloomberg), just days after referendum results show that the South will secede.

Uganda: The country will accept bids from international oil companies to build a 140-mile pipeline (UPI) from Lake Alberta to Kampala.

AMERICAS: Haiti Moves Forward With Runoff

A former Haitian first lady will face off against a pop singer in a March runoff election to determine the earthquake-devastated country's next president, following a long-awaited ruling on whether to eliminate government-backed candidate Jude Célestin (WSJ).

One year after Haiti's earthquake, a contested presidential election, the return of Baby Doc Duvalier, and problems with redevelopment hobble the country's efforts to rebuild, says Haitian philanthropist Jacques-Philippe Piverger in a CFR interview.

United States: An alleged member of the Taliban imprisoned at the Guantanamo Bay since 2002 has died from an apparent heart attack after exercising (USAToday).

EUROPE: EU Leaders Comment on Egypt

With Europe criticized for saying too little too late, leaders of Britain, Germany, and Italy warned Cairo against further bloodshed (AFP) and called for a quick transition to democracy.

TRANSNATIONAL: World Food Prices Reach Record High

World food prices, which are contributing to unrest in the Middle East, have reached historic highs (al-Jazeera), according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization.

With global food prices again soaring to record levels, experts say policies are needed to bolster agriculture production and reduce trade barriers, particularly by the United States, according to this CFR Analysis Brief.

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