Jumat, 11 Februari 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 11, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Frustrated Egyptians Gather for Fresh Protests
- Iran Commemorates Revolution
- Pakistan Extends Detention of U.S. Suspect
- Swedish PM May Jeopardize Assange 'Fair Trial'

Top of the Agenda: Frustrated Egyptians Gather for Fresh Protests

Pro-democracy organizers are calling on "millions" of Egyptians across the country to protest President Hosni Mubarak's refusal to leave office (al-Jazeera). Massive crowds congregated in Cairo's central square for what, some suggest, could be the largest protests so far. The military has made statements that it would end the country's thirty-year emergency law (BBC) "as soon as the current circumstances end." Army leaders also supported the transfer of Mubarak's authority to Vice President Omar Suleiman, and guaranteed a free and fair presidential election, constitutional changes, and "protection of the nation." Experts say Mubarak's Thursday address (WSJ) shocked Egyptians and confused the diplomatic community, as he gave a vague pledge to hand power to his vice president while overseeing the transition to a new government in September. Opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei warned of potential violent unrest (CNN) following the president's decision to remain at the helm, and suggested the army must "save the country now."

Analysis:

Mubarak's refusal to step down in response to expanding protests further complicates the country's political crisis and the role of policymakers managing the U.S. response, say CFR's Richard N. Haass and Steven A. Cook.

This issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa.

Egypt's various reform factions share a belief in an orderly transition to representative government but have wildly divergent political ideologies. In Foreign Affairs, Khairi Abaza asks: How will these groups coexist in the post-Mubarak era?

Background:

The anti-government protests in Egypt will likely mean a greater political role for the Muslim Brotherhood, analysts say. But this Backgrounder notes the divide in views over whether the Islamist group will choose a path of moderation or extremism.

This CFR Contingency Planning Memo discusses political instability in Egypt and assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take.

Read a collection of Foreign Affairs articles on Egypt, including essays by Anwar el-Sadat, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, and Fouad Ajami.

MIDDLE EAST: Iran Commemorates Revolution

Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators rallied in Tehran to mark the thirty-second anniversary of Iran's Islamic Revolution in a gathering the regime advertised as an opportunity to show solidarity with "Islamic" protesters in Egypt. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad framed the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt as an "Islamic awakening" similar to Iran's revolution (Reuters).

Continued unrest in Egypt is stirring tensions between Iran's hardliners and opposition movement and stoking concerns that an Iran-friendly Egyptian regime could upset the regional balance of power.

PACIFIC RIM: Prominent Chinese Activist Under House Arrest

Human rights groups report that Chen Guangcheng, one of China's most well-known activists who famously exposed cases of forced abortions, and his wife are under house arrest and have been beaten by authorities (Independent).

Thailand: Hundreds of anti-government protestors called for the resignation of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, criticizing his handling of a long-running border disagreement with Cambodia (CNN) that has led to recent violence.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Extends Detention of U.S. Suspect

Pakistani police concluded that Raymond Davis, a U.S. embassy worker who killed two men in Lahore, was not acting in self defense. A judge ordered that Davis be held for another two weeks, and instructed the government to determine whether he has diplomatic immunity (Guardian).

High food prices, lack of jobs, and widespread corruption are as rampant in Pakistan as they are in Egypt. Analysts warn against a return to military rule in search of stability and recommend greater economic reforms.

AFRICA: Clashes in South Sudan Kill Scores

Over one hundred people were killed in violence between Sudanese rebel soldiers and south Sudan's army (BBC). The bloodshed erupted in the southern state of Jonglei as the region prepares for independence from the north after last month's referendum.

AMERICAS: Venezuelan Lawmakers Trade Punches

A fist fight broke out between legislators from the socialist party of President Hugo Chavez and a rival parliamentary party. This parliamentary session marks the first time the two factions have worked so closely since the opposition boycotted the 2005 elections that consolidated the power of Chavez allies (al-Jazeera).

Chavez took office in 1999 on a populist platform. But as he moves to enact his "socialist revolution," critics say the country increasingly resembles an authoritarian state. This interactive timeline offers a visual account of modern Venezuelan politics and Chavez's rise to power.

United States: The Conservative Political Action Conference opened in Washington, DC, on Thursday. The annual event is a rite of passage for Republican White House contenders (WashPost) vying for national media attention.

EUROPE: Swedish PM May Jeopardize Assange 'Fair Trial'

In London, attorneys for WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange cited inflammatory statements by Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt as creating a "toxic atmosphere" incapable of producing a fair trial. Assange is wanted in Sweden on sexual misconduct charges associated with two WikiLeaks volunteers (Reuters).

Germany: German Chancellor Angela Merkel is expected to push for the head of Germany's national bank, Axel Weber, to resign following his "surprise" decision not to pursue the presidency of the European Central Bank. Experts suggest Weber's move weakened the Merkel's strategy to restore German confidence in the euro (WSJ).

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