Kamis, 03 Februari 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 3, 2011

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Cairo Clashes Enter Second Day
- Dueling Protests in Yemeni Capital
- Haiti Awaits Election Results
- Leaders to Unveil Debt Crisis Strategy

Top of the Agenda: Cairo Clashes Enter Second Day

The violence in Egypt's capital continued for a second day, as gunfire targeting protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square (FT) brought the death toll to six. The bloodshed marks a tenth day of protests and an extension of Wednesday's heated standoff between anti-government protesters and allies of President Hosni Mubarak. According to reports, the army initially made little effort to prevent the pro-Mubarak faction from marching on opposing activists, but eventually it intervened with rounds of warning fire. Some opposition supporters claim the pro-government camp was paid (BBC) by the regime and allowed into the square by the military. In a joint statement (WSJ), leaders from the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain denounced the violence and urged for a transition to begin immediately. Egypt's newly appointed prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, apologized for the attacks on protestors (CNN) and said Mubarak has asked him to investigate the security chaos.

There have been reports that some opposition groups have accepted an invitation to hold negotiations (Haaretz) with Shafiq, but the Muslim Brotherhood--which is officially banned--and opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei rejected the gesture. In an al-Jazeera broadcast, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood said, "We demand that this regime is overthrown and we demand the formation of a national unity government (Reuters) for all the factions."

Analysis:

Former secretary of state James A. Baker says the crucial U.S. alliance with a politically stunted Egyptian regime poses major difficulties for the Obama administration as it tries to balance U.S. values with national interests.

Whatever change follows Egypt's political turbulence, any new government will have to confront the country's rampant unemployment, cronyism, and other factors impeding growth and development, in addition to constitutional reform, says CFR's Isobel Coleman.

This issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa.

Background:

This CFR Contingency Planning Memo discusses political instability in Egypt and assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take.

Read a collection of Foreign Affairs articles on Egypt, including essays by Anwar el-Sadat, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, and Fouad Ajami.

MIDDLE EAST: Dueling Protests in Yemeni Capital

Thousands of anti-government protestors gathered in Sanaa to demand the immediate removal of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has stated he will leave office in 2013. A similar number of his supporters also rallied, calling for reforms but believing only Saleh can bring stability to Yemen (BBC).

PACIFIC RIM: Queensland Assesses Cyclone Damage

Residents of Queensland began to assess the impact of Cyclone Yasi, the largest storm to hit the region in living memory. The category five storm caused far less destruction than was expected because it landed away from major population centers (Guardian).

Indonesia: Prosecutors charged Abu Bakar Bashir, a top Muslim cleric and founder of the radical Jemaah Islamiyah movement (NYT), with coordinating and financing a terrorist group in the northern province of Aceh. If convicted, Bashir could face the death penalty.

Read CFR's profile of Southeast Asian terror group Jemaah Islamiyah, the group allegedly responsible for the 2002 Bali bombings.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Lawmaker Withdraws Pakistan Blasphemy Opposition

Sherry Rehman, a member of the ruling Pakistan People's Party, formally withdrew her bill opposing the country's controversial blasphemy laws (AFP) and accused the prime minister of sabotaging efforts at reform. The decision comes weeks after the murder of Salman Taseer, a politician backing similar reforms.

Pakistan's stability is of great consequence to regional and international security. Examine the roots of its challenges, what it means for the region and the world, and explore some plausible futures for the country in CFR's Crisis Guide: Pakistan.

India: Former Indian telecom minister A Raja and two other officials were brought into custody, facing charges of underselling mobile phone licenses (TimesofIndia), which cost the country billions of dollars in lost revenue.

AFRICA: Sudan Arrests Journalists Ahead of Protest

Ahead of continuing anti-government demonstrations (Reuters), Sudan arrested ten journalists from the Communist Party newspaper. The government has directed riot police to disband more than a dozen rallies in the north this week, where activists are protesting high prices and limits on freedom.

Uganda: Ugandan police arrested a suspect in last week's killing of David Kato, a prominent gay rights activist (AP). Police said the murder had nothing to do with Kato's sexual orientation, though activists maintain the two are linked.

AMERICAS: Haiti Awaits Election Results

International security forces prepared for potential unrest as Haitians waited early into the morning for the presidential poll results (AFP) set to determine who will qualify for the election run-off.

One year after Haiti's earthquake, a contested presidential election, the return of Baby Doc Duvalier, and problems with redevelopment hobble the country's efforts to rebuild, says Haitian philanthropist Jacques-Philippe Piverger.

United States: The U.S. Senate rejected the repeal of President Barack Obama's healthcare overhaul (WashPost). In recent court cases, two federal judges have ruled a central provision of the law unconstitutional, and many people expect a final decision to fall on the Supreme Court.

EUROPE: Leaders to Unveil Debt Crisis Strategy

In Brussels on Friday, European leaders are expected to announce a broad outline of the strategy for solving the eurozone debt crisis (WSJ).

For all the success of German reunification, it left behind fateful seeds that became the current eurozone crisis. To overcome the downturn, Europe should retrofit the EU with stronger political institutions, writes Mary Elise Sarotte in Foreign Affairs.

Russia: Moscow's former mayor (FT), Yuri Luzhkov, vowed to remain in Russia and battle his critics, after President Dmitry Medvedev's government leveled new corruption allegations against him.

EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR

Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook.

Privacy Policy
The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties.

Council on Foreign Relations
58 East 68th Street
New York, NY 10065
Tel. +1 212.434.9400
Fax: +1 212.434.9800

Learn about this and other newsletters offered by the Council on Foreign Relations.

To pause your subscription, to switch between HTML and text-only versions of the newsletter, to change your email address, or to unsubscribe, click here.


Email list management powered by http://MailerMailer.com