Selasa, 01 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 1, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Qaddafi Forces Mount Counter Attack
- Iran Opposition Leaders Jailed
- U.S. Will Not Redeploy Nukes to Korea
- Brazil Lacks Funds for Fighter Jets

Top of the Agenda: Qaddafi Forces Mount Counter Attack

The battle for Libya's future continued as mercenaries and military forces faithful to the nation's beleaguered leader, Muammar al-Qaddafi, staged counter strikes against several rebel-held cities. According to al-Jazeera, fighter jets are reported to have bombed rebel targets in Ajdabiya and Az Zawiyah. Some opposition leaders dismissed the attacks as acts of desperation (NYT), while others were concerned about Qaddafi's continued possession of powerful weapons. According to the UN, the death toll (CNN) from the political violence has topped a thousand.

The United States repositioned navy and air force assets (Guardian) around Libya, and British Prime Minister David Cameron requested contingency planning for a “no-fly” zone. However, according to AP, Russia's foreign minister discarded the notion of such a tactic, and said the UN should focus on the sanctions already approved. The U.S. Treasury says it has frozen $30 billion in Libyan assets (BBC)- the largest amount it has ever seized. The U.S. Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, called Qaddafi “delusional” following an interview in which he denied the existence of any protests in Tripoli.

Analysis:

In this article for Foreign Affairs, Frederic Wehrey writes, for decades, the outsized personality of Muammar al-Qaddafi has obscured the many rivalries among Libya's domestic groups, from the tribes to the military. With the Qaddafi era coming to a likely end, how will these actors now vie for supremacy?

In this piece for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Marina and David Ottaway suggest that unlike in Tunisia and Egypt, the departure of Qaddafi from Libya will create a political vacuum that could lead to the complete collapse of the Libyan state.

In this op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, CFR's Elliott Abrams discusses the historical context of Washington's relationship with the Qaddafi regime.

In this opinion piece for the Financial Times, Gareth Evans argues that a no-fly zone will help stop Qaddafi's carnage.

Background:

The world's attention has been focused on a handful of countries - Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, and Libya - since the first popular protests broke out in December. But nearly a dozen countries in the region have seen political unrest, and the protest movement shows no signs of stopping. Al-Jazeera provides a summary of the demonstrations so far, and links to their coverage.

In this article for the Brookings Institution, Daniel Kaufmann writes that for years, the international community and experts got Libya wrong, partly as a result of a Faustian bargain between the West and Qaddafi.

Multimedia:

In this C-SPAN video, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addresses the UN Human Rights Council on the crisis in Libya and status of its government.

MIDDLE EAST: Iran Opposition Leaders Jailed

Iran arrested opposition leaders (WSJ) Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, removing them to a Tehran prison and under the custody of Revolutionary Guards. The move comes the day before planned nationwide anti-regime protests.

In contrast to other Mideast states, economic pressures are less likely to topple Iran's regime, says expert Suzanne Maloney in a CFR interview. Stronger repressive forces and the impact of international sanctions may strengthen the government, she argues.

Yemen: Throngs of protestors mobbed the streets of central Sanaa (AFP) for a massive anti-government demonstration calling for the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. In comments to the media, Saleh blamed Israel and the United States for instigating the revolt.

In this op-ed for the International Herald Tribune, CFR's Charles A. Kupchan discusses the natural U.S. anxiety over the process of reformation taking place in the Mideast. He warns that the regimes that emerge from the chaos may well be much tougher customers than the autocracies they replace.

PACIFIC RIM: U.S. Will Not Redeploy Nukes to Korea

The Obama administration says “tactical nuclear weapons are unnecessary for the defense of South Korea and we have no plan or intention to return them.” The United States is eager to cool tensions between the Koreas (FT) after the North sank a South Korean warship and shelled one of its islands last year.

This CFR Task Force Report identifies three elements of an internationally coordinated response to the threat posed by North Korea: first, denuclearization of the Korean peninsula; second, regional cohesion; and third, China's cooperation and active engagement.

China: In comments posted on a government website, China's minister for the environment warned that increasing pollution and demand for resources will threaten the nation's economic growth. He also suggested environment protection be a key plank of the China's new Five Year Plan (ANI).

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Death Sentences for India Train Arsonists

An Indian court issued death sentences to eleven people for their role in 2002 train arson (CNN) that killed more than fifty Hindu pilgrims. The train fire led to days of rioting in which over a thousand people, mostly Muslims, were killed.

Pakistan: Pakistan raised the price of oil (AP) nearly ten percent in response to spikes in the international market following unrest in North Africa and the Mideast. Analysts say the decision could undermine stability of the U.S.-allied civilian government.

AFRICA: UN Team Attacked in Ivory Coast

A group of UN experts were attacked in the capital of Yamoussoukro while investigating reports that Belarus had provided attack helicopters for supporters of Laurent Gbagbo (BBC). UN officials warn the country is at risk of civil war.

AMERICAS: Brazil Lacks Funds for Fighter Jets

Brazil's finance minister confirmed speculation that, due to budget cuts, the country will be unable to purchase thirty-six fighter bombers (MercoPress) it had planned to acquire.

Venezuela: President Hugo Chavez (al-Jazeera) urged the international community to seek a peaceful solution to the unrest against Libyan autocrat Muammar al-Qaddafi. Chavez is Qaddafi's primary ally in Latin America.

EUROPE: Spain Arrests Four ETA Members

Spanish police captured four suspected members of the armed Basque independence group ETA (AP) accused of violent attacks in 2009, including the murder of an anti-terrorism officer and the bombing a Civil Guard barracks.

Luxembourg: The European Court of Justice ruled that insurers and pension plans cannot differentiate contracts based on gender. The verdict will force changes in the current practice across Europe of basing insurance rates (Telegraph) on statistics about differing life expectancies or driving records of the sexes.

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