March 31, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Qaddafi's Foreign Minister Defects to UK - Assad Addresses Syrian People - Seawater Radiation Spike Persists near Fukushima - Compromise Nears in Budget Cuts Top of the Agenda: Qaddafi's Foreign Minister Defects to UK Libya's foreign minister Moussa Koussa resigned his office and fled to the United Kingdom in what analysts describe as a major diplomatic setback for the Qaddafi regime (WSJ). U.S. officials said the defection signals the growing rift within the regime's inner circle and hope the development encourages more departures and expands the rebellion. Experts say Koussa was under mounting pressure from U.S. intelligence (FT), including the threat of unilateral sanctions and asset freezes. The British government has not offered Koussa immunity from prosecution (al-Jazeera). The New York Times reports the CIA has been on the ground in Libya for weeks, helping target U.S. airstrikes and making contact with rebel groups. UK officials also acknowledged the presence of MI6 and special forces assuming similar roles. Experts say the covert operatives are gathering much-needed intelligence on rebel forces (WashPost) in order to inform a coalition decision on whether to provide direct military aid to these groups. U.S. congressional leaders said they received a picture of "mixed progress" in a closed-door briefing with U.S. Secretaries Hillary Clinton and Robert Gates. NATO officially assumed command over all air operations in Libya (UKPA) from the United States. Analysis: On his CFR blog Pressure Points, Elliott Abrams discusses the implications of the Koussa's defection. In the Washington Post, Fareed Zakaria writes that the United States is taking on broader ownership of the Libyan conflict and warns of mission creep. On his CFR blog The Water's Edge, James M. Lindsay continues his discussion of whether Operation Odyssey Dawn is constitutional. Background: Read a "Vision of a Democratic Libya" (PDF) put forth by Libyan opposition group the Interim National Council. Read President Obama's speech to the nation on Libya on March 28, 2011. This UN Security Council resolution regarding Libya was passed on March 17, 2011. Multimedia: This interactive feature from the Guardian looks at the military assets in Libya and traces the rebel advance, and retreat, as they struggle against pro-Qaddafi forces. This video from the Wall Street Journal suggests that until Qaddafi is deposed, it will be difficult to outline exactly what might happen. MIDDLE EAST: Syria's Assad Gives Defiant Speech In his address to the Syrian people (FT), President Bashar al-Assad failed to announce new reforms and suggested the weeks of unrest around his regime was the work of outside conspirators. Assad made no assurances that he would lift the country's long-standing emergency rule. Syria's unrest isn't widespread enough to lead to a government ouster, with the Assad regime enjoying solid support from the country's Alawite leadership and Sunni majority, says expert Joshua Landis. Egypt: The Egyptian military announced that the country's first presidential elections (AP) since Mubarak's fall will take place in November, allowing nascent political groups time to organize. Some fear the rapid timetable will disproportionately advantage groups with established organizations. PACIFIC RIM: Seawater Radiation Spike Persists near Fukushima Japanese authorities continue to measure rising levels of radiation in the seawater off Japan's stricken Fukushima nuclear plant (CNN). Officials have yet to discover the cause of the spike, but claim the contamination does not pose health risks to humans eating seafood. In this op-ed for the Beijing Times, CFR's Sheila A. Smith discusses the immense challenges Japan will face as it begins the process of recovery. China: At a meeting of the G20 in Nanjing (WSJ), China faced renewed pressure from Western nations to let its currency rise at greater speed. The United States has blamed the huge trade imbalance on an artificially weak yuan. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Islamist Leader Eludes Assassination The head of one of Pakistan's leading Islamist parties, cleric Fazl-ur-Rehman, narrowly avoided a probable assassination attempt (Reuters), when a bomb exploded near his vehicle in the northwest country. Nine others were killed in the attack. Pakistan's stability is of great consequence to regional and international security. Examine the roots of its challenges, what it means for the region and the world, and explore some plausible futures for the country in CFR's Crisis Guide: Pakistan. India: Experts claim the World Cup cricket match (BBC) between Pakistan and India was a significant boon to the diplomatic relations between the two nations. Over one billion people worldwide are believed to have watched the match. AFRICA: Ouattara Captures Important Port City Soldiers supporting Alassane Ouattara (AFP) seized control of San Pedro, the world's largest cocoa exporting port. Over the past week, Ouattara's forces have swept south from northern strongholds, successfully wresting control of towns held by opponent Laurent Gbagbo. AMERICAS: Compromise Nears in U.S. Budget Cuts U.S. lawmakers entered negotiations to slash $33 billion from federal spending (WashPost), a number that both parties compromised on, but the contents of which still remains to be fleshed out. On her CFR blog Latin America's Moment, Shannon K. O'Neil examines whether the showdown over the U.S. budget will affect the Inter-American Development Bank. Guatemala: In a joint operation, U.S. and Guatemalan law enforcement (RTT) captured Juan Ortiz Lopez, the Central American nation's most wanted drug lord, in the city of Quetzaltenango. EUROPE: Kosovo President Resigns after Court Ruling Kosovo President Behgjet Pacolli resigned following a ruling by the nation's highest court declaring his election invalid. Opposition candidates boycotted the election, citing Pacolli's close ties to Russia, which opposes Kosovo's independence (DeutscheWelle). Ireland: In what commentators have deemed Ireland's "Black Thursday," (Guardian) the major Irish banks are set to reveal the extent of their tremendous, multibillion-dollar financial losses. The report is expected to say that banks need an additional $42 billion to remain solvent. EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook. 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