March 30, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - White House Debates Arming Rebels - Assad to Address Syrian People - Cricket Unites India and Pakistan Leaders - Obama to Give Speech on Domestic Energy Top of the Agenda: White House Debates Arming Rebels Members of the Obama administration are debating whether to supply arms to rebels (NYT) battling Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime in Libya, with some fearful that such action will drag the United States further into the conflict. There is also uncertainty as to whether some of the rebel groups may have links to al-Qaeda. In prior statements, President Barack Obama said he has not ruled out the possibility of providing weapons to rebel forces (BBC). Meeting in London, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UK Foreign Secretary William Hague both suggested the UN resolution on intervention in Libya could permit the supply of weapons. However, experts on international law claim the UN's current arms embargo (Guardian) on Libya includes all combatants in the conflict, and that the arms provision would require a change in terms. Experts claim the rebel's recent retreat from Bin Jawad and Ras Lanuf underscores their difficulty in overcoming Qaddafi's heavily armed forces (WSJ), and the question of whether the coalition will need to equip the rebellion for it to succeed. The rebels are expected to encounter increased resistance the farther west they move toward Sirte, possibly facing pro-Qaddafi civilians (FT) who have joined the fight on his behalf. Such a development could also thwart the allied air strikes integral to the rebel advance. Analysis: Obama has staked a proper middle course on military intervention in Libya, boosted enormously by burden sharing with coalition allies, says CFR's Stewart Patrick. In this op-ed for the International Herald Tribune, CFR's Ray Takeyh says that, despite the headlines on Libya, the most important event in the Middle East last week was the plebiscite in Egypt establishing the basis for genuine democratic order. Though Obama is on solid legal ground in the Libya intervention, congressional support for it could erode if operations continue for months, says CFR's Matthew Waxman. Background: Read a "Vision of a Democratic Libya" (PDF) put forth by Libyan opposition group the Interim National Council. Read President Obama's speech on Libya on March 28, 2011. The UN Security Council resolution regarding Libya was passed on March 17, 2011. MIDDLE EAST: Assad to Address Syrian People President Bashar al-Assad is expected to address the nation following two weeks of unprecedented dissent in which more than sixty have died. Observers anticipate Assad (al-Jazeera) will clarify a number of reforms announced last week, including an eventual end to emergency rule. Syria's unrest isn't widespread enough to lead to a government ouster, with the Assad regime enjoying solid support from the country's Alawite leadership and Sunni majority, says expert Joshua Landis. Iraq: In a highly organized attack, Iraqi insurgents (WashPost) wearing police uniforms and driving military trucks stormed a provincial government headquarters in Tikrit and killed fifty-three people. PACIFIC RIM: Japan to Decommission Stricken Reactors Plant operators at the Fukushima nuclear plant (BBC) announced they will scrap reactors one through four after failing to bring them under control. The future of reactors five and six will be determined later. Japanese officials are considering whether to cover the reactor buildings with a special material to prevent the spread of radiation. Indonesia: Umar Patek, an alleged planner of the 2002 Bali night club bombings (AFP) that killed more than two hundred people, was arrested in Pakistan, according to Indonesia officials. Patek is a suspected member of the Southeast Asian terror network Jemaah Islamiyah. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Cricket Unites India and Pakistan Leaders The prime ministers of India and Pakistan (AP) met in Mohali, India, to watch the World Cup cricket semifinal between their two nations in what analysts describe as a significant gesture of solidarity following years of political strife. Myanmar: Former prime minister Thein Sein was sworn in as the country's new president, signaling an end to the military junta (CNN) that governed the nation for decades. Critics allege the military has overhauled Myanmar's constitution in an effort to tighten the regime's grip. On his CFR blog Asia Unbound, Joshua Kurlantzick discusses the potential political and strategic implications of Myanmar's earthquake last Thursday. AFRICA: Gbagbo Calls for Ceasefire Following a successful offensive by forces of Alassane Ouattara, including the capture of two more towns, disputed incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo called for a ceasefire and mediation in the Ivory Coast (AP). AMERICAS: Obama to Give Speech on Domestic Energy In a speech at Georgetown University, President Obama is expected to call on oil companies to increase domestic energy production (FT), as well as urge the responsible development of natural gas, advancements in biofuels, and improved efficiency. This report from CFR explores the important issues at the intersection of oil, gas, and national security, and identifies areas for future research. Haiti: Election results from Haiti's presidential runoff (MiamiHerald) will be delayed several days due to the volume and verification of the vote. Foreign observers claim that some fraud is evident. EUROPE: Investigation Launched into 'Fake Bomb' Flight UK authorities began an investigation into a "fake bomb" (BBC) that was smuggled onto a UPS cargo plan and flown from London to Istanbul without detection. In October 2010, a bomb disguised as an ink cartridge was found on a UPS cargo plane, which authorities discovered was timed to detonate over the U.S. Eastern seaboard. The Netherlands: A Dutch court ordered the resumption of the race hate trial of anti-Islam lawmaker Geert Wilders (DeutscheWelle), who faces five charges including inciting hatred. Wilders said his remarks are part of lawful political debate, while his opponents claim they lead to discrimination against Muslims. EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook. Privacy Policy The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties. 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