Selasa, 08 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 8, 2011

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Libya Sliding to Civil War
- Prison Riots Add to Yemen Tensions
- Locke to Be Nominated Ambassador to China
- Obama Extends Life of Gitmo System

Top of the Agenda: Libya Sliding to Civil War

The regime of Libyan autocrat Muammar al-Qaddafi stepped up its counteroffensive against rebel forces in the country's east and west, battering the oil port of Ras Lanuf with renewed airstrikes (NYT) and continuing ground assaults on Zawiyah and other cities closer to Tripoli. The counterattack comes amid mixed reports regarding attempts by Qaddafi to negotiate a stand down (al-Jazeera) and safe passage from Libya for him and his family. Libyan state television denied these accounts. According to the BBC, opposition leaders expressed no interest in negotiations without a ceasefire, and they say Qaddafi is attempting to divide the rebellion with such gestures.

Rebels continue to press the international community to institute a no-fly zone (CBS) and neutralize a major tactical advantage of the regime. There are some signs of momentum building for such a move, including an endorsement from the Gulf Cooperation Council (National) and a meeting of NATO military planners (Guardian) to discuss the options for a no-fly zone. However, leading members of the Obama administration remain divided over the issue.

Analysis:

In the Wall Street Journal, CFR President Richard N. Haass says a no-fly zone would prove ineffective in Libya and that "intervening militarily in Libya would be a potentially costly distraction" for a U.S. military already overextended in Iraq and Afghanistan.

This article from the Brookings Institution says that the same countries experiencing pro-democracy protests and rebellions in the Middle East have also seen development successes in recent years.

This CFR issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa.

In the New Yorker, Wendell Steavenson notes that Qaddafi's defiance is a reminder that revolutions can be bloody and uncertain, and that what comes later is even harder to divine.

Background:

This CFR Report says the United States must improve its responsiveness to mass atrocities and, absent action by the UN, make clear its willingness to act unilaterally.

Multimedia:

In this video from the TED2011, Wadah Khanfar, the head of al-Jazeera, shares an optimistic view of what's happening in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and beyond as the democratic revolution led by tech-empowered young people sweeps the Arab world.

In this NPR podcast, participants discuss the language that media outlets use to describe the events in Libya: How did "protestors" suddenly became "rebels" and why? And how does the word "rebel" change the way readers perceive the conflict there?

This photo essay from the Diplomat asks if the unrest in the Arab world could travel further still, leading Asia analysts give their take on the prospects for a Jasmine Revolution in seven Asian nations.

MIDDLE EAST: Prison Riots Add to Yemen Tensions

After several days of rioting (al-Jazeera) within compound walls, prisoners in one of Yemen's largest detention facilities were fired on by security forces using tear gas and live ammunition. Detainees express solidarity with the anti-regime protests, adding further tension to the weeks-long political crisis.

Iran: Political moderate Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani lost the presidency of Iran's Assembly of Experts (WSJ), the nation's most powerful clerical committee, to a hard-line adversary, which analysts see as another indicator of the regime pushing out those seen as opposition sympathizers.

This article for Foreign Affairs looks at how the Israeli defense establishment would respond if Iran went nuclear.

PACIFIC RIM: Obama to Nominate Ambassador to China

According to U.S. officials, President Barack Obama is set to name U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke as his nominee for chief emissary in Beijing. Locke is a Chinese American who has long managed trade negotiations with China (BBC).

China's new five-year work plan has a familiar list of growth and energy targets, an emphasis on technology investments, and concerns about resource constraints and corruption, says CFR's Elizabeth Economy.

Japan: Japan is on schedule to test its first stealth prototype aircraft (CP) in 2014, according to senior defense officials. Tokyo's decision to develop the fighter came after a U.S. congressional export ban on the F-22 Raptor, and China's rapid militarization in the region.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Car Bomb Blasts East Pakistan

At least twenty people were killed in a car bomb explosion (al-Jazeera) outside a gas station in Faisalabad, a center for Pakistan's textile industry.

Bangladesh: The Bangladesh High Court ruled against micro-finance pioneer Muhammad Yunus (FT), rejecting his claim that he was fired illegally from Bangladesh Bank, the financial sector regulator. Analysts suggest the decision is a ploy by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to discredit a potential political adversary.

AFRICA: Somali Conflict Threatens Horn of Africa

A UN advisor claims that the ongoing violence in Somalia (VOA) is threatening to spread terrorist activities to Kenya and other surrounding countries. Suspects in the July 2010 attacks in Uganda have been linked to Somalia's hard-line Islamic group al-Shabaab.

View recent political developments in the region with this CFR interactive map of the Horn of Africa.

AMERICAS: Obama Extends Life of Gitmo System

President Barack Obama issued an executive order that will establish an official system of indefinite detention for inmates at the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay (WashPost). The government will also begin new military commission trials for detainees after a two-year ban.

Colombia: According to local reports, leftist FARC guerillas (LATimes) kidnapped twenty-three oil workers for the Canada-based Talisman Energy near the town of Puerto Principe.

EUROPE: Serbia and Kosovo Hold Historic Talks

In their first direct talks since Pristina declared independence in 2008, Serbia and Kosovo meet to discuss bilateral issues like air traffic control and land registers. Observers do not expect any progress on the sovereignty dispute (RFE/RL).

Brussels: John Bruton, a former EU ambassador to the United States, claims that the ECB ignored "irresponsible lending" practices (EUObserver) of German, French, British, and Belgian banks. Bruton also argued that curbing spending will not get at the heart of the eurozone crisis, but that efforts should focus on banking supervision.

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