Kamis, 03 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Airstrikes Continue over Libyan Towns
- Egypt Military Appoints New PM
- Militia Clashes with South Sudan Army
- Obama Set to Meet Calderon

Top of the Agenda: Airstrikes Continue Over Libyan Towns

Libyan airstrikes (WSJ) hit the rebel-held oil port of Marsa el-Brega, as pro-regime forces and rebels battled for control over the strategic oil installation. In their first major counteroffensive against pro-Qaddafi forces, rebel soldiers were able to regain control of the city of Brega after a ferocious battle on Wednesday. The Libyan opposition asked the United States and its allies to impose a no-fly zone (FT) and bomb forces supporting the regime, but there appears to be international opposition to such a proposal.

The International Criminal Court at The Hague is scheduled to announce a summary of alleged war crimes (CNN) since the anti-government protests started last month. According to news reports, Amr Moussa, the head of the Arab League, said a peace proposal by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (NYT) was "under consideration" but gave no specific details. The UN estimates 80,000 to 90,000 refugees have fled to neighboring Tunisia since the uprising began and thousands more are still waiting to leave. Britain, France, Spain, and other countries are conducting emergency airlifts (BBC) to evacuate those gathered at the border.

Analysis:

In this op-ed for the New York Times, CFR's Steven Simon ponders whether the United States should act militarily against the Qaddafi regime.

Violence by Qaddafi's government has resulted in at least three hundred civilian deaths and the attempted flight of Libyans and migrant workers, says Human Rights Watch's Tom Malinowski. The U.S. and NATO should consider preparing military options against the regime and ensure delivery of relief aid, he says.

In this article for The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Lt. Col. Jason Hanover and Jeffrey White detail the risks and the chances for success inherent in three main options for outside military intervention in Libya.

MIDDLE EAST: Egypt's Military Appoints New PM

Egypt's military rulers announced that Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, selected to serve by Hosni Mubarak (FT) just days before revolution began, has been removed and will be replaced by former transport minister Essam Sharaf.

Yemen: According to government officials, Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh will respond "positively" to an opposition plan (Reuters) for him to relinquish power and reform politics by the end of 2011.

PACIFIC RIM: Amid Rallies, China Targets Journalists

A Chinese newspaper accused foreign journalists covering the recent anti-government rallies of fabricating news. The remarks come a day after police warned journalists on that they could lose permission to work in China unless they obey new restrictions on covering protests (AFP).

Phillipines: The military dispatched two warplanes to the South China Sea region after a local ship searching for oil claimed it was pestered by two Chinese patrol boats (CP). The Chinese vessels left later without an altercation.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Court Rules No Immunity for Davis

A Pakistani court in Lahore ruled that Raymond Davis (al-Jazeera), a CIA contractor undergoing trial over the fatal shooting of two men, does not have diplomatic immunity.

A CFR Crisis Guide examines the roots of Pakistan's challenges, what they could mean for the region and the world.

India: PJ Thomas, the head of India's anti-corruption agency, was forced to resign by the Supreme Court on charges of corruption (BBC) involving palm oil imports, the latest in a series of corruption scandals plaguing the government of Manmohan Singh.

A spate of high-profile scams has weakened India's government and raised concerns among foreign investors. Businesses and civil society say the country needs more effective anti-corruption laws.

AFRICA: Militia Clashes with South Sudan Army

For the second time in three weeks, rebel fighters battled with south Sudan's army in clashes killing nearly one hundred people in the southern state of Jonglei. Analysts fear the violence could reignite fears for the stability of the oil-producing region (Reuters) in the countdown to its independence.

AMERICAS: Obama Set to Meet Calderon

President Barack Obama is scheduled to meet with Mexican President Felipe Calderon (CNN) at the White House as part of a two-day visit. Analysts suggest the two leaders will discuss a number of issues including crime, immigration, and commerce.

A Council Special Report argues that the United States can help Mexico fight corruption and its drug war by strengthening its economy, political institutions, and civil society.

Venezuela: President Hugo Chavez proposed an international "committee of peace" to mediate a resolution to the crisis in Libya (Guardian), although analysts claim the plan lacks detail.

EUROPE: German Officials Say Gunman Motivated by Islam

German prosecutors said that Islamic radicalism may have motivated Manfred Füllhardt to fire on an U.S. military bus at the Frankfurt airport (NYT), killing two American airmen and wounding two others.

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