Senin, 27 Desember 2010

From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 27, 2010

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- UN Maps Show Afghan Security Worsens

- Pakistan Bombing Halts Food Aid

- Russian Oil Tycoon Found Guilty

- Ivory Coast General Strike Called

Top of the Agenda: UN Maps Show Afghan Security Worsens

The Wall Street Journal reports that internal United Nations maps show deterioration in Afghan security during this year's fighting season; the article also notes that there were no security improvements in southern Afghanistan, the focus of current coalition military offensives. Two confidential UN maps obtained by The Wall Street Journal, one showing the situation at the start of this year's fighting season in March and the other towards its end in October, highlight a particular decline in parts of the north and east (AFP) .

The latest reports counter the Obama administration's optimistic assessments of military progress since the surge of additional U.S. forces began a year ago. A White House review of the Afghan War strategy released earlier this month said the current approach has helped to reduce overall Taliban influence and said progress was most evident “in the gains Afghan and coalition forces are making in clearing the Taliban heartland of Kandahar and Helmand provinces.” The New York Times notes that the Haqqani network—the deadliest group of Taliban fighters in Afghanistan--has not and that American-led commandos, who have escalated raids against the militant group's bomb makers and logisticians, have stymied Taliban momentum.

Meanwhile, at least three people were killed and many more injured after a car bomb exploded (al-Jazeera) near a crowded bank in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar.

Analysis:

CFR President Richard N. Haass says current policy in Afghanistan is diverting scarce military resources (WSJ) when threats like Iran and North Korea loom and says the return of al-Qaeda can be prevented with far fewer troops.

In a new Foreign Affairs article, CFR's Robert Blackwill looks at a plan B for Afghanistan. He argues a de facto partition of Afghanistan, in which Washington pursues nation building in the north and counterterrorism in the south, offers an acceptable fallback.

In this interview, CFR Senior Fellow Stephen Biddle says the Taliban must be convinced of a firm U.S. commitment in Afghanistan before it will negotiate a settlement, and any deal will have to also involve the Pakistani, U.S., and Afghan governments.

SOUTH ASIA: Pakistan Bombing Halts Food Aid

The UN World Food Program has temporarily suspended food distribution (TheNation) in a Pakistani tribal district where a suicide attack on Saturday killed 45 people. A female bomber blew herself up near a large crowd receiving food aid in Khar, a town in the northwestern Bajaur agency close to the Afghan border. The Pakistan Taliban is reported to have claimed responsibility for the attack.

This CFR's Crisis Guide on Pakistan looks at the country's numerable challenges and explores some future prospects.

PACIFIC RIM: China Raises Interest Rates

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao voiced confidence that his government can contain rising prices (Xinhua) seeking to reassure the public about inflation after the central bank raised interest rates for the second time in ten weeks. The rate increase announced Saturday, in which China's central bank increased benchmark lending and deposit rates by a quarter percentage point, followed a series of other steps targeting inflation (WSJ), including price controls on certain commodities and several increases in the reserve-requirement ratio, or the share of deposits that banks must keep on reserve instead of lending.

South Korea: South Korean President Lee Myung-bak called for the country to unite in the face of military aggression (Yonhap) from North Korea. The Korean peninsula has been tense since Pyongyang shelled the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong last month, killing four people.

In this blog post on CFR's Asia Unbound, Evan Feigenbaum looks at why North Korea did not respond to South Korea's latest military drills. he says this time the conflict was unlikely because North Korea did not need to strike, having already achieved many of its objectives.

MIDDLE EAST: Deadly Bombings in Iraq

At least seventeen people, including several police officers, were killed Monday when a pair of explosions hit a government compound (Reuters) in Ramadi, capital of Anbar province. The bombings mark the first major attack since Nouri al-Maliki was confirmed for a second term as prime minister on December 21 and his new government, in which he retains Iraq's three security portfolios, received parliament's stamp of approval.

AFRICA: Ivory Coast General Strike Called

Political parties loyal to Ivory Coast presidential claimant Alassane Ouattara have called a general strike (CNN) across the country from Monday to force the incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo to cede power. Gbagbo has refused to step aside following November's disputed election, which he insists was rigged. Ouattara has been recognized internationally as the victor. Meanwhile, the UN Refugee Agency says at least 14,000 people have already fled (allAfrica) to neighboring Liberia as a result of violence and political chaos.

Nigeria: United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned Christmas Eve bombings (Bloomberg) in the central Nigerian city of Jos that killed at least 32 people and injured more than 50. The government yesterday imposed a ten-hour curfew in Jos, where sectarian violence between Christians and Muslims this year has killed as many as 500 people.

AMERICAS: White House Says No End Soon for Guantanamo

The White House admitted Sunday it would be unable to shut Guantanamo Bay in the near future (MiamiHerald), even as it acknowledged the controversial detention center is an al Qaeda “recruiting tool.'' Nearly a year has passed since President Barack Obama's self-imposed deadline to close the camp.

This CFR Backgrounder looks at a string of legal and security issues--from how to charge inmates, to how to safely release those no longer deemed a threat--that make the closure of Guantanamo difficult.

Haiti: Haiti's Prime Minister Jean-Max Bellerive has criticized the international  community (BBC) channeling aid money through outside agencies, which has prevented Haiti from playing a bigger role in its own reconstruction following last January's earthquake. Nearly one year on, more than one million Haitians still live in camps.

EUROPE: Russian Oil Tycoon Found Guilty

A Moscow court has declared former Yukos oil company chief Mikhail Khodorkovsky and his business partner Platon Lebedev guilty of embezzling property (RiaNovosti) and money laundering. Already imprisoned since 2003 for fraud and tax evasion, Khodorkovsky and Lebedev could remain in prison until 2017. They were found guilty of stealing 218 million tons of oil (RFE/RL) in this second trial, which has drawn international attention.

UK: Nine men have been charged with conspiracy to cause explosions (BBC) in the UK and with other terrorism offences. They are among twelve men arrested a week ago in raids by counterterrorism police and will appear in court today. Three men were released without charge.

 

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