Rabu, 29 Desember 2010

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 29, 2010

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Executive Summary

- South Korea Calls for Six-Party Talks
- Suicide Bombers Kill Iraq Police Commander
- India Tightens Sanctions on Iran
- Ggagbo Defies Ultimatum to Step Down

Top of the Agenda: South Korea Calls for Six-Party Talks

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak says six-party talks are the best route to denuclearization of North Korea (Yonhap). He also called on Pyongyang to acknowledge previous commitments and abandon its nuclear program within one year. Talks between the six-party nations—U.S., Japan, South Korea, Russia, China, and North Korea—have been stalled for two years, and North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong Island last month, killing South Korean civilians, intensified tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Reaching a viable rapprochement (WashPost) for the peninsula is likely to be a primary topic of discussion when President Obama hosts a summit with Chinese President Hu Jintao in January.

Despite its call for increased diplomacy, Seoul officially defines North Korea as an "enemy" (BusinessWeek) and has promised to strengthen its military and respond more harshly to any future attacks. In a defense ministry report, South Korea says it will seek a more active military deterrence including the "early fortification" (Xinhua) of islands deemed vulnerable to the North's aggression.

Analysis:

This CFR Report from Paul B. Stares, Director of the Center for Preventive Action, suggests further provocations by North Korea as well as other dangerous military interactions on or around the Korean peninsula remain a serious risk and carry the danger of unintended escalation.

Leon V. Sigal, Director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project, calls for the United States and South Korea to support a peace process and political and economic engagement with North Korea.

This article by CFR Fellow Josh Kurlantzick featured in the New Republic examines the links between North Korea and a potential nuclear and missile program in Burma.

Background:

This CFR Special Report discusses the challenges posed by North Korea and its controversial nuclear program.

MIDDLE EAST: Suicide Bombers Kill Iraq Police Commander

Three suicide bombers (al-Jazeera) attacked police headquarters in Mosul, killing at least four including a unit commander known for pursuing al-Qaeda. Military officials say the city is the last significant urban stronghold of al-Qaeda in Iraq.

Iraq's coalition government is a promising resolution to nine months of political wrangling after national elections, says expert Joost Hiltermann in this CFR interview, but questions loom about how effective Baghdad's power-sharing agreement will be.

Kuwait: Members of the Kuwaiti opposition filed a motion of "no co-operation (BBC)" against the prime minister, Sheik Nasser Al Mohammed Al Sabah, in an effort to remove him from office after opposition lawmakers said he suppressed freedoms during recent protests. If passed, the issue is referred to the emir for a final decision.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India Tightens Sanctions on Iran

The Reserve Bank of India restricted lenders from transacting business with Iran via the Asia Clearing Union (WSJ), a major trade-finance clearinghouse set up by the UN to encourage trade in South Asia. The decision adds strength to new sanctions placed on the Iranian regime by the UN, U.S. and the European Union.

China: A top U.S. naval commander declared a new Chinese anti-ship missile (FT) operational. Experts believe the development has the potential to significantly alter the balance of military power in the Pacific.

AFRICA: Gbagbo Defies Ultimatum to Step Down

The disputed incumbent president of Ivory Coast (Reuters), Laurent Gbagbo, refused to step down following an ultimatum from three West African presidents that included a threat of military action. Leaders of the regional delegation Ecowas will meet again in Nigeria to discuss the crisis with Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan.

Tanzania: Leaders of the opposition group Civic United Front (The Citizen) staged demonstrations protesting the government's refusal to overhaul its constitution. Despite an official clampdown that included many arrests, demonstrators presented a draft constitution to the Ministry of Justice.

PACIFIC RIM: Record Floods Inundate Northeast Australia

The worst flooding in decades forced the evacuations of thousands of Queensland residents (BBC) as the government declared three towns disaster zones. Estimated damage is expected to top AU$1 billion.

AMERICAS: Mexican Prison Guards Charged in Jailbreak

Forty-one prison guards are charged with facilitating the escape of 153 inmates (AP) from a Nuevo Laredo prison in northern Mexico. The prisoners were being held for crimes including robbery and drug-smuggling.

EUROPE: Four Arrested in Danish Terror Plot

Danish police arrested four men suspected of plotting to attack a newspaper which published satirical cartoons (BBC) of the Prophet Mohammad.

Germany: The future president of the German Airport Association called for security checks based on age, sex and ethnicity for "high-risk passengers," sparking a debate about passenger profiling (DeutscheWelle).

National security experts advise using a passenger screening system that relies more on intelligence, behavioral profiling, and empowering passengers. This CFR backgrounder looks at the ongoing debate over airport security and issues of privacy and security.

 

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