Selasa, 21 Desember 2010

From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 21, 2010

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- START Ratification Gains Support
- Iraq's Parliament to Vote on Cabinet
- Islamists Suspected in Kenya Bombing
- Venezuela Passes Internet Law

Top of the Agenda: START Ratification Gains Support

Ratification of the New START treaty, a nuclear arms reduction agreement with Russia, was reportedly within reach ahead of an expected Tuesday's congressional vote (NYT). Nine Republican senators have publicly said they would vote for the treaty or are leaning toward (The Hill) doing so, making it likely the Senate would reach the sixty-seven votes needed for ratification. Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, also appealed to the Senate (WashPost) to ratify the treaty.

Still, the treaty remains the subject of much partisan debate. More than seventy Republican amendments have been filed aimed altering the treaty text and preamble. But in Senate floor action over the weekend, treaty backers garnered more than enough votes to defeat Republican amendments. Russian officials have warned against such amendments, saying the treaty cannot be reopened (Moscow Times) and subject to new negotiations. Current Senate negotiations on amendments are focused on the resolution (Politico) of ratification—such as reiterating a commitment to missile defense—which would not alter the language of the treaty itself. Such language could strengthen the treaty's position with some GOP holdouts.

Analysis:

In a New York Times blog, Robert Wright looks at why there is divergence between the Republican Party's foreign policy brain trust (including six former secretaries of state who back the treaty) and its top lawmakers.

In this transcript, CFR's Kay King, Micah Zenko, and James Lindsay discuss the congressional politics of New START ratification and the potential foreign policy implications associated with its success and/or failure.

In a recent CFR roundup, four experts assess the strengths and weaknesses of the New START agreement.

Background:

Text of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) signed in April.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraq's Parliament to Vote on Cabinet

After nine months of post-election wrangling, Iraq's parliament is scheduled to consider Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's cabinet nominees (Bloomberg)—announce yesterday.

Israel: Israeli frorces conducted air strikes (BBC) targeting tunnels, a Hamas training center, and a weapons factory in the Gaza Strip.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: NATO: No Expanded Raids into Pakistan

NATO officials in Afghanistan denied a report by the New York Times that U.S. forces are pushing to expand raids into tribal areas of neighboring Pakistan (AP) where Islamist militants are known to find refuge. This new CFR interactive Crisis Guide discusses how U.S. cross-border raids affect Pakistan's internal stability.

India: Cementing their "special and privileged" ties, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed thirty pacts during a summit in New Dehli (The Hindu), including ones on civil nuclear cooperation and defense.

PACIFIC RIM: Korean Peninsula Tensions Ease

Beijing, in a rare move, has called on Pyongyang to allow international inspections of its nuclear facilities (FT) amid indications that recent conflict on the Korean peninsula might be easing. North Korea announced Monday it would not "retaliate" against South Korea (WashPost) for conducting military exercises. CFR's Scott Snyder said more effort should go into China-U.S. cooperation on the Korean peninsula and strengthening South Korean defenses. This CFR Contingency Planning Memo by Paul Stares looks at military escalation on the peninsula.

AFRICA: Islamists Suspected in Kenya Bombing

Three people were killed and thirty-nine injured after a bomb exploded at a bus station (Guardian) in the Kenyan capital of Nairobi. Most of the victims were Ugandans traveling home for Christmas and the incident followed warnings by security services in Uganda of al-Qaeda plans for attacks.

Ivory Coast: The UN refugee agency says more than 6,000 people have fled (AP) to Liberia and Guinea following post-election violence.

AMERICAS: Venezuela Passes Internet Law

Venezuela's Parliament approved a law tightening internet rules (BBC), which backers say will protect against online crimes but which critics charge is aimed at curtailing freedom of speech. In this new CFR Expert Brief, Joel Hirst argues President Hugo Chavez is pushing through a series of laws that will effectively quell legal means to opposition, a move that Washington must challenge.

United States: The Federal Communications Commission could pass a controversial set of rules, including one to prevent broadband providers from blocking access to sites (NYT) and applications.

EUROPE: Snowfall Continues EU Travel Woes

More heavy snow has compounded transport problems for travelers in Europe (BBC), as hundreds sleep in airports because of cancelled flights during the beginning of the holiday season.

Belarus: Officials jailed 600 people for up to two weeks in a crackdown following protests against the re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko (AFP) for a fourth term, in which he won nearly 80 percent of the votes.

TRANSNATIONAL: UN Members Argue over Protection for Gays

A dispute has broken out among UN member states over whether homosexuals should be given the same protections as other minorities (Guardian) in condemning unjustified killings.

 

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