Kamis, 23 Desember 2010

From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 23, 2010

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- South Korea Completes Military Drills

- Pakistan Rejects U.S. Troops in Tribal Areas

- Tensions Mount Between Israel and Hamas

- Medvedev Hails START Ratification

Editor's Note: A previous version of this newsletter had broken text links due to a technical error. Please use this corrected version.

Top of the Agenda: South Korea Completes Military Drills

South Korea's military finished a massive live-fire exercise (ABCNews) it described as the biggest drill in the country's history. The drills, the third this week, were conducted near the border with North Korea (FT), sparking charges of provocation from Pyongyang; they were seen as part of South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak's effort to present a stronger image following public anger at North Korea's attack on Yeonpyeong island last month, killing four civilians. "In the case of another surprise attack, the country must launch a merciless counterattack," Lee said (CNN).

The two Koreas have been drawn into escalating hostilities by North Korea's apparent efforts to redraw the maritime boundary (WSJ) near Yeonpyeong and four other islands controlled by South Korea in the Yellow Sea. Though the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Sunday, U.S. disagreements with Russia and China (Reuters) over the crisis on the Korean Peninsula are so profound it is unlikely they can be resolved, says Susan Rice, U.S. envoy to the United Nations. China criticized South Korea (KoreaTimes) for the exercises and praised North Korea's restraint, though North Korea's armed forces minister says Pyongyang is “ready for a sacred war” (BBC) including the use of nuclear weapons.

Analysis

An effective policy response to the crisis on the Korean Peninsula must strengthen South Korean defenses and close the U.S. gap with China on how to deal with North Korea, says CFR's Scott Snyder.

Korea expert Leon Sigal calls for the United States and South Korea to support a peace process and political and economic engagement with North Korea.

South Korea needs to do better (Chosunilbo) in working with Russia and China diplomatically to confront North Korea, says this editorial.

After Chinese President Hu Jintao's visit to Washington next month, North Korea will likely “refocus on South Korea, judging its military to be vulnerable,” writes CFR's Evan A. Feigenbaum.

CFR's Paul Stares looks at the risks for unintended escalation on the peninsula in this new Contingency Planning Memo.

Background

This CFR Crisis Guide: The Korean Peninsula explores the military, economic and nuclear dimensions of the persistent tensions between Pyongyang and Seoul.

MIDDLE EAST: Tensions Mount Between Israel and Hamas

A senior Israeli army officer says that as long as Hamas remains in control of the Gaza Strip (BBC), another war is "a question of when, not if.”

Prime Minister Salam Fayyad has now initiated a third, pragmatic stage of Palestinian nationalism (ForeignAffairs) by building institutions and counting down to statehood. Fayyad's vision is a promising one, and Israel should help him achieve it, writes CFR's Robert Danin.

IRAQ: The country's Christian congregations canceled or toned down Christmas celebrations (NYT) in the wake of several attacks, including a bloody siege on a Catholic church in Baghdad in late October, and recent threats against the country's dwindling Christian minority.

PACIFIC RIM: U.S. Accuses China on Wind Power Subsidies

U.S. authorities say China is illegally subsidizing the production of wind power equipment (BBC) and has asked the World Trade Organization (WTO) for talks.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Rejects U.S. Troops in Tribal Areas

Pakistan says that it will not accept any ground operation by the U.S. troops in its tribal regions bordering Afghanistan (Xinhua). The comments follow reports the Obama administration is considering an expansion of Special Operations into Pakistani regions bordering Afghanistan.

Two senior policemen, including the former Rawalpindi police chief, were arrested for failing to provide adequate security for former Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto (Hindu) in Rawalpindi, where she was assassinated on December 27, 2007.

AFRICA: U.S. Discusses More Ivory Coast Peacekeepers

The United States is talking with France and West African states about bolstering the UN peacekeeping force in Ivory Coast (VOA) as President Laurent Gbagbo continues to resist calls to step down in favor of the internationally recognized winner of last month's election, Alassane Ouattara. The State Department's ordering of all non-essential embassy employees to leave Ivory Coast is a sign of serious concern over increased bloodshed, writes CFR's John Campbell.

SUDAN: More than 7 million ballot papers arrived in southern Sudan's capital, Juba, marking one of the final steps of preparation for a highly contentious referendum Jan. 9 that would allow Sudan's southern region (McClatchy-Tribune) to secede.

AMERICAS: Medvedev Welcomes New START Ratification

President Dmitry Medvedev welcomed the U.S. Senate's vote (AP) to ratify a landmark U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control treaty, but Russian legislators said they need to study a resolution accompanying the document before following suit. An AP analysis says the Senate's vote to ratify the New START agreement is more important for its diplomatic implications than for the limits on weapons and could help gain Russian cooperation with a U.S. plan to protect Europe with an anti-missile shield.

Support of the U.S. national security establishment was crucial in gaining Senate ratification of New START, but follow-on arms control agreements with Russia face a tough road, says CFR's Stephen Sestanovich.

President Barack Obama signed legislation that declares an end to the nation's "don't ask, don't tell" (SFGate) policy on gay and lesbian members of the military.

EUROPE: Greece Passes Austerity Measures

Greece's government passed a 2011 austerity budget (WSJ), a precondition for further aid from bailout funds provided by Greece's international lenders of last resort to avoid a debt default.

“What the euro needs is more Germanys," writes the FT column Lex, but what it gets are "small, open, peripheral European economies, not obviously in need of cheap credit, dangerously vulnerable to euro-induced bubbles.”

Note: The Daily News Brief will resume publication Monday, Dec. 27.

 

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