Rabu, 22 Desember 2010

From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 22, 2010

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Senate Vote Likely on New START Treaty
- U.S. Imposes New Iran Sanctions
- S. Korea Launches New Military Drills
- Afghans Say Tehran Blocking Fuel Inflows

Top of the Agenda: Senate Vote Likely on New START Treaty

The U.S. Senate has voted to end debate on a new arms control treaty with Russia (NYT), clearing the way for is expected to be final approval today. Eleven Republican senators and all Democratic senators supported the new treaty known as START in what would be a bipartisan victory for U.S. President Barack Obama following Republican resistance. Senate approval could clear the way for future talks with Russia and further arms reductions beyond the limits set by START, which requires both sides to reduce stockpiles so that neither deploys more than 1,550 strategic warheads. Obama pledged to focus additional talks (WSJ) on curbing thousands of smaller, tactical nuclear weapons, conventional forces and the countries' remaining strategic arsenal. Although those issues are likely to face stronger pushback from Russia and the United States, START's ratification could also lend new momentum to nuclear non-proliferation efforts (NPR) for countries like Iran and North Korea.

Analysis:

This CFR analysis brief examines the roots of continued partisan debate about the scope of the new START treaty.

In this Brookings paper, Steven Pifer says future arms reductions talks with Russia will be more difficult to negotiate, since Russia relies on tactical nuclear weapons to balance conventional imbalances with NATO and China.

In this recent Council Special Report, CFR's Micah Zenko argues for further scaling back of U.S. and Russian nuclear arms to bolster the international nonproliferation regime.

Background:

Read the text of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) signed in April.

MIDDLE EAST: U.S. Imposes New Iran Sanctions

The Obama administration imposed new sanctions on Iran (NYT) aimed at three companies linked to the Revolutionary Guard Corps and shipping lines just weeks after lackluster diplomatic talks with Iran in Geneva.

In this interview, Robin Wright says although talks between Iran and the P5+1 ended with plans to meet in Istanbul next month, the differences between the two sides suggest a long road ahead dotted with meetings that don't go very far.

Israel: Israel announced it will deploy tanks (AP) equipped with a missile-defense system along the Gaza Strip border in response to Palestinian militants' sophisticated, tank-piercing missile.

PACIFIC RIM: S. Korea Launches New Military Drills

South Korea launched a new round of military drills (Yonhap) in the Sea of Japan and scheduled an exercise thirty miles from the North-South demilitarized zone, despite North Korea's recent warnings of retaliation.

South Korea's exercises on Yeonpyeong are a response to last month's North Korean attack and growing public anger, says CFR's Scott Snyder, who urges greater China-U.S. cooperation on the Korean peninsula and strengthening South Korean defenses.

Japan: Japan's government cut its growth forecast (Bloomberg) for 2011 from 3.1 percent to 1.5 percent, amid an export-threatening 11 percent surge in the yen's value against the U.S. dollar.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Afghans Say Tehran Blocking Fuel Inflows

Afghan officials say Iran is blocking nearly two thousand fuel tankers (WSJ) from entering Afghanistan, apparently due to concerns the fuel is going to NATO forces fighting the Taliban.

In the Wall Street Journal, Richard N. Haass says the current policy in Afghanistan is diverting scarce military resources when threats like Iran and North Korea loom--and the return of al Qaeda can be prevented with far fewer troops.

Pakistan: Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao promised to help Pakistan fight against extremism (al-Jazeera) during a state visit, days after the United States said Pakistan needs to step up its efforts in fighting militants along the Afghan border.

AFRICA: U.S. Sanctions Against Cote d’Ivoire’s Gbagbo

The United States imposed sanctions (allAfrica) on Cote d'Ivoire President Laurent Gbagbo, to pressure him to step down and recognize Alassane Ouattara as the winner of the country's November run-off.

Sudan: The UN is preparing for significant violence, disrupted food supply, and mass migration (CSMonitor) in the run-up to Sudan's January 9 referendum on southern independence.

This CFR backgrounder examines Sudan's fractured internal politics.

AMERICAS: U.S. Population Growth Slows

The U.S. population growth has risen at its slowest pace over the past decade (BBC) since the Great Depression, according to new data by the U.S. census bureau. The United States' nearly 10 percent growth rate is nearly double other developed countries like France and England.

EUROPE: China to Help Tackle Euro Crisis

China vowed to help stabilize the European financial crisis by continuing to buy distressed European sovereign debt (FT) and stepping up its eurozone bond purchases if needed.

Belarus: Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to crack down on political dissidents (WSJ) following his landslide re-election.

 

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