December 16, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Afghan War Review Has Drawdown on Track - Security Council Removes Iraq Restrictions - United States Sues BP over Spill - Swedish Attack Sparks Fears of Wider Extremism Top of the Agenda: Afghan War Review Has Drawdown on Track A White House review of President Barack Obama's Afghan war strategy (WashPost) confirmed that a July drawdown of U.S. troops is on track despite uneven progress. The president mandated the year-end review following his announcement of a thirty thousand troop surge in December 2009. Details released from the report suggest headway in clearing the Taliban from Kandahar and Helmand provinces, though other challenges remain. The report summary makes clear that the pace of withdrawal will be based on changing conditions on the ground (BusinessWeek). Ambiguity about the drawdown is generating pressure from military commanders and Republicans who would like a measured reduction as well as Democrats who expect a prompt withdrawal (NYT). Leading up to the review, administration officials tried to downplay its significance as a strategic turning point. The summary indicates that old difficulties continue to plague the war effort including Afghan corruption and the persistence of terrorist safe havens in Pakistani border regions (WSJ). Observers suggest there is still disagreement within the Obama administration on questions like the overall scope of the war and how much to pressure the Pakistani government. The White House said these issues would be addressed in meetings of the National Security Council, and that these meetings would dictate the rate of withdrawal. Analysis: Andrew Exum of Foreign Policy outlines five "ways to win" in Afghanistan and reverse the deterioration of conditions in America's longest war. Washington Post op-ed columnist George Will compares Taliban resistance to the 1968 North Vietnamese Tet Offensive. CFR President Richard N. Haass says that as the United States moves away from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is an opportunity to reorient U.S. foreign policy. This CFR Task Force Report examines the U.S. strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Background: This Pakistan Crisis Guide from CFR offers a range of expert perspectives on Pakistan's history and future prospects. MIDDLE EAST: Security Council Removes Iraq Restrictions The UN Security Council voted to end a legacy of restrictions (WashPost) from the era of Saddam Hussein. The UN resolutions passed will permit the development of a civilian nuclear program, officially end the controversial "oil-for-food" program, and return control of most of the country's oil assets starting in July 2011. Egypt: Arab foreign ministers ruled out further Arab-Israeli negotiations (al-Jazeera) in the absence of a "serious offer" from the United States for resolving the conflict. PACIFIC RIM: South Korea to Hold Live-Fire Drill South Korea will hold its first live-fire exercises (Yonhap) since North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong Island last month, killing two marines and two civilians. North Korea says the attack was in response to the last live-fire exercises held on the island. The upcoming exercises will be observed by the U.S.-led UN Command. This CFR interview with Leon V. Sigal, director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project, calls for the United States and South Korea to support a peace process and political and economic engagement with North Korea. Australia: The death of twenty-eight asylum-seekers in a shipwreck off Christmas Island has sparked a public debate on Australia's border policy (CNN). Prime Minister Julia Gillard defended her government's stance, which some critics allege encourages the influx of refugees. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Chinese and India Boost Trade Cooperation On the first day of the historic trade conference (FT), China and India solidified some fifty agreements valued at over $16 billion. CFR Senior Fellow for International Economics Jagdish Bhagwati testifies before the Indian Parliament about the impact of economic reforms made in the early 1990s, and the way forward. AFRICA: ICC Names Six Kenyans The International Criminal Court accused six Kenyan politicians of ethnic-based "crimes against humanity" in its probe of the post-election violence in 2007 and 2008. Kenya will be The Hague's fourth African case where the charges mainly include genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity (al-Jazeera). Ivory Coast: Alassane Ouattara, the internationally recognized winner of last month's election, urged supporters to take control of state television and the seat of government in the capital of Abidjan via peaceful action (DailyNation). The Laurent Gbagbo government is condemned by the UN, EU, and African Union. AMERICAS: United States Sues BP over Spill The United States will prosecute British Petroleum for violating federal safety laws on its Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in the Gulf of Mexico. Though shares of BP stock dipped slightly as a result, forecasters do not see any fundamental market reevaluation of BP's future liability (BBC). This CFR slideshow provides a chronology of ten major instances in which multinational corporations were involved in industrial incidents, and their legal and regulatory aftermath. EUROPE: Swedish Attack Sparks Fears of Wider Extremism In a government-commissioned threat assessment (WSJ), Swedish police identified some two hundred Islamic extremists prone to embrace violence within their borders. Belgium: Leading into the EU Summit (DeutscheWelle), the stability of the euro remains a focal point of member nations, but there is wide disagreement remains about how best to stabilize it. Some in the liberal faction of the European Parliament recommend establishing common euro bonds and mutual coordination of European economic and budgetary policy.

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