Jumat, 11 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 11, 2011

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Titanic Quake, Tsunami Pummel Japan
- 'Day of Rage' Planned for Saudi Arabia
- Radicalization Hearings Begin in Congress
- French Police Arrest ETA Leader

Top of the Agenda: Titanic Quake, Tsunami Pummel Japan

The largest earthquake to strike Japan on record (WSJ), an 8.9 on the Richter scale, hit the country on Friday afternoon, generating a thirty-foot tsunami that inundated northern coastlines and set off warning systems in fifty-three countries. Japanese authorities set the death toll at sixty, with dozens still missing. The quake struck just two hundred and fifty miles from Tokyo (BBC), sparking fires in several parts of the city and shutting down public transport. Coastal regions in the Philippines, Hawaii, and other Pacific islands were evacuated ahead of the tsunami's expected arrival. Officials say damage estimates and long-term projections of the effects on business are premature at this point. Much of the infrastructure vital to Japan's export-driven economy (NYT)--including factories, airports, and seaports--has closed temporarily. Some analysts note that the majority of industrial Japan was spared, and that following the1995 Kobe quake, many firms diversified supply chains.

The historic earthquake also caused alarm at Japanese nuclear facilities, with the IAEA receiving reports of several power plant shutdowns, including a fire at the Onagawa plant, which has been extinguished. Asian markets (DailyFinance) fell on news of the crisis.

Analysis:

Speaking to Bloomberg television, Nouriel Roubini, the economist who predicted the global financial crisis, says the earthquake is the "worst thing" at the "worst time" for the Japanese economy.

In this op-ed for Wall Street Journal Asia in February, CFR's David S. Abraham asked whether Japan's prime minister can reopen the world's third largest economy to competition.

Multimedia:

This video from the Wall Street Journal discusses the implications of the earthquake and tsunami for a country already coping with slow economic growth and political instability.

MIDDLE EAST: 'Day of Rage' Planned for Saudi Arabia

Activist leaders plan to hold "Day of Rage" demonstrations (Reuters) advocating political reform in the Saudi Arabia. If the protests take place, which are banned under the regime, it could establish a significant precedent for pro-democracy activism.

Libya: In a major counterattack, forces of the Libyan regime (BBC) established significant gains against rebels in Zawiya and Ras Lanuf. President Obama's top intelligence adviser James Clapper predicted Qaddafi forces would defeat the rebels without international intervention.

In his CFR blog, Michael Levi writes that "Libyan Oil Isn't Coming Back Soon."

PACIFIC RIM: WikiLeaks Cables Implicate Indonesian President

U.S. diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks claim Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono abused his authority to protect political allies and spy on rivals. The government denies the allegations (al-Jazeera) as "baseless."

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Gates Warns Against Hasty Troop Withdrawals

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates cautioned European countries contributing troops to Afghanistan that a precipitous exit from the country would threaten security gains. Analysts say the announcement indicates the White House is lowering expectations of major troop reductions in July (Guardian).

Afghanistan: A U.S-led Special Forces raid accidentally killed a cousin of Afghan President Hamid Karzai (WSJ), further aggravating tensions between Kabul and Washington. The death comes shortly after an errant U.S. airstrike in eastern Afghanistan killed nine Afghan children.

AFRICA: Charles Taylor War Crimes Trial to Close

After more than three years, the war crimes trial (France24) of former Liberian president Charles Taylor is nearing completion. Taylor is the first African ex-ruler to be tried at The Hague--he faces eleven charges related to inciting violence against civilians in Sierra Leone.

On his CFR blog Africa in Transition, John Campbell notes the suspected relationships between some of Africa's controversial strongmen including Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, Ivory Coast's Laurent Gbagbo, and Libya's Qaddafi.

Ivory Coast: The UN claims that the increasing attacks on its peacekeeping personnel in the Ivory Coast constitute war crimes (AP). The UN blames the bloodshed on disputed incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo who clings to power months after the international community declared victory for his rival.

AMERICAS: Radicalization Hearings Begin in Congress

Chairman of the Homeland Security Committee Peter King (R-NY) began hearings into the "radicalization" of American Muslims (BBC). King claims that mosques are breeding radicals, while critics argue the hearings are counterproductive.

Mexico: Julian Leyzaola, a former police chief renowned for taking on drug cartels in Tijuana, has been named the new chief of Ciudad Juarez (CNN). Ongoing drug wars were blamed for more than three thousand deaths in Juarez in 2010.

In this special report from CFR, David A. Shirk analyzes the drug war in Mexico, explores Mexico's capacities and limitations, and examines the factors that have undermined effective state performance.

EUROPE: French Police Arrest ETA Leader

French authorities arrested Alejandro Zobaran Arriola, who they believe to be the new military chief of the Basque separatist group ETA (RFI). Arriola has been wanted internationally since 2007, and is believed to lead groups targeting Spanish buildings for terrorist attacks.

Brussels: Leaders from the seventeen eurozone nations (UPI) are scheduled to meet on measures to introduce greater discipline into the economic bloc. Discussion will likely focus on issues like raising the retirement age, imposing public debt caps, and tying wage increases to productivity.

EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR

Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook.

Privacy Policy
The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties.

Council on Foreign Relations
58 East 68th Street
New York, NY 10065
Tel. +1 212.434.9400
Fax: +1 212.434.9800

Learn about this and other newsletters offered by the Council on Foreign Relations.

To pause your subscription, to switch between HTML and text-only versions of the newsletter, to change your email address, or to unsubscribe, click here.


Email list management powered by http://MailerMailer.com