March 9, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Qaddafi Slams Threat of No-Fly Zone - Shiites Rally Against Bahrain Monarchy - Japan Names Matsumoto New FM - Florida Vies for Primary Preeminence Top of the Agenda: Qaddafi Slams Threat of No-Fly Zone As the international community ponders the imposition of a no-fly zone (BBC) over Libya, the country's longtime dictator, Muammar al-Qaddafi, chided the notion and warned that his people were prepared to take up arms in retaliation. The no-fly zone debate (NYT) continues in world capitals, with Britain and France pushing for a resolution on the matter in the UN, and the United States expressing the difficulties of imposing such a ban. The White House said it continues to pursue planning for the "full spectrum" of possibilities with its allies and NATO. The international community is also considering the use of naval assets to deliver humanitarian aid and a potential arms blockade (WashPost). All proponents of military intervention in Libya agree that some form of international backing is necessary. U.S. officials claimed that fighting in many parts of Libya has reached a stalemate (WSJ). Qaddafi loyalists appear to have halted the rebel advance from the city of Zawiya, near Tripoli. Rebels continue to hold to the oil-refinery town of Ras Lanuf, while regime forces are tightening their grip on Bin Jawad. Analysis: In the Financial Times, CFR President Richard N. Haass writes on "how to read the second Arab awakening." On his CFR blog The Water's Edge, James M. Lindsay wonders if Libya will hurt Obama's 2012 reelection campaign. At STRATFOR, George Friedman examines the potential complications with imposing a "no-fly" zone and how such a strategy could backfire. ForeignPolicy.com interviews Benjamin Barber, the longtime advisor to Saif al-Qaddafi, son of Libya's autocrat. The international community saw him as the best hope for a freer, more democratic Libya. Did they get him wrong? Background: This CFR Report says the United States must improve its responsiveness to mass atrocities and, absent action by the UN, make clear its willingness to act unilaterally. This report from the Center for Naval Analyses investigates Libya's role in Sudan, the Horn of Africa, and the Sahel under Qaddafi (PDF). Multimedia: This interactive map from the Guardian details the progression of the Libyan revolt and highlights cities of strategic interest. This video from the Economist looks at oil and the Arab uprisings, and suggests the world can cope without Libya's oil--but another supply shock could spark an oil crisis. MIDDLE EAST: Shiites Rally Against Bahrain Monarchy Three Bahraini Shiite groups declared their intention to end the Sunni monarchy (al-Jazeera) and establish a democratic republic. As protests enter the twenty-third day, other groups have called for reforms but stopped short of demanding total regime change. Egypt: Muslims and Coptic Christians (Reuters) clashed in religious violence that left at least ten dead in Cairo. The bloodshed was triggered when Christians held demonstrations protesting the burning of their church. The January bombing of a Coptic Church in Egypt underscores deep sectarian tensions and reflects the need for a more open and tolerant society, says CFR's Steven Cook. PACIFIC RIM: Japan Names Matsumoto New FM Prime Minister Naoto Kan appointed Takeaki Matsumoto as the country's foreign minister (Bloomberg) following the abrupt, scandal-ridden resignation of Seiji Maehara. Matsumoto assumes office amid plunging support for Kan due to finance scandals, persistent deflation, and budgetary gridlock. China: Chinese lawmakers are debating whether to end the country's longstanding one-child policy (Guardian) in the next five years, citing a growing imbalance in age demographics. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Bomb Kills Thirty-Six at Pakistan Funeral In the northwestern city of Peshawar, a suicide bomber attacked the funeral of a pro-government tribal elder, killing at least thirty-six. Pakistani Taliban (Agencies) claimed responsibility. Pakistan's stability is of great consequence to regional and international security. Examine the roots of its challenges, what it means for the region and the world, and some plausible futures for the country in CFR's Crisis Guide: Pakistan. Afghanistan: The UN reported 2010 as the deadliest year in the war in Afghanistan (BBC). Assassinations and the killing of women and children rose dramatically, while the number killed by government and NATO troops declined sharply, representing 16 percent of deaths. This CFR timeline examines the events that precipitated the U.S. war in Afghanistan, as well as the history of the conflict. AFRICA: ICC Summons Top Kenyan Officials The International Criminal Court summoned six Kenyans--including the deputy prime minister and the president's top adviser--who are accused of crimes against humanity (Guardian) related to the violence surrounding the disputed 2007 election in which thirteen thousand people were killed. AMERICAS: Florida Vies for Primary Preeminence Florida is ignoring the presidential primary schedule (AP) set by the national parties, and plans to host its primary on January 31, 2012, more than one month ahead of the first day allowed by primary rules. Mexico: Marisol Valles, Mexico's youngest police chief, is seeking asylum (WSJ) in the United States following threats against her life. Experts say it is possible to receive asylum in cases where a government is unable to provide protection from private individuals, such as a drug gang. In this CFR Special Report, David A. Shirk analyzes the drug war in Mexico, explores Mexico's capacities and limitations, assesses the prospects for U.S. support to strengthen state institutions, and offers recommendations for reducing the potential of state failure. EUROPE: Judge Postpones Chirac Corruption Trial A French court delayed the corruption trial of former president Jacques Chirac (Reuters) for three months while it requests counsel on a technical challenge. Chirac faces charges related to the misuse of public funds. Russia: Russia expects to make $9.5 billion in arms sales (RIANovosti) in 2011, up from $8.6 billion in 2010. EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook. Privacy Policy The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties. 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