Senin, 07 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 7, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Qaddafi Pushes Back in East Libya
- Bahrain Protestors Call for U.S. Help
- Japan PM Kan Clings to Power
- U.S. Defense Secretary in Kabul for Talks

Top of the Agenda: Qaddafi Pushes Back in East Libya

As the revolution seeking to depose Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi enters its third week, forces loyal to the regime are mounting a counteroffensive in the country's east (BBC), retaking the city of Bin Jawad and advancing toward the oil port of Ras Lanuf. Clashes between rebels and pro-Qaddafi forces (al-Jazeera) were also reported in other cities, including Az Zawiyah and Misurata. An attack by pro-regime forces thwarted the rebel march toward Sirte, Qaddafi's hometown and a symbolic stronghold.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon appointed a special envoy to Libya to consult with officials on the spiraling violence and continuing human rights abuses (WSJ). According to the UN, nearly two hundred thousand refugees have fled the violence, a number that is expected to double. In contrast to events in Egypt and Tunisia, some analysts predict a prolonged conflict (CNN) in which Qaddafi will fight to the death.

Analysis:

Oil price shocks spurred by Mideast events are unlikely to derail the U.S. economic recovery, says CFR Distinguished Visiting Fellow Michael Spence. But bigger shifts in the global economy will hit U.S. unemployment, income inequality, and capital costs, he says.

This article from the New Republic suggests four options for U.S. military intervention in Libya.

Just as it fostered networks of people committed to free and democratic ideas during the Cold War, the United States could do more to develop and support networks of moderate Muslims who are too often silenced by violent radical Islamists, says this report from the RAND Corporation.

Background:

This CFR Report says the United States must improve its responsiveness to mass atrocities and, absent action by the UN, make clear its willingness to act unilaterally.

Multimedia:

Follow how the rebellion is unfolding in Libya with this interactive map from the New York Times.

Fighting has continued between the Libyan army and anti-government forces to gain control of the east of the country. These images from the Guardian show scenes of the conflict from Bin Jawad.

MIDDLE EAST: Bahrain Protestors Call for U.S. Help

Hundreds of activists from Bahrain's Shiite majority (AP) demonstrated outside the U.S. Embassy, demanding greater U.S. support for their cause, which they contend is unequal to U.S. efforts in Egypt and Libya. The opposition movement is organizing daily protests to demand a constitutional monarchy and an end to corruption.

Egypt: Egypt is scheduled to swear in candidates for a new cabinet that will guide the nation as it transitions to a democratic system. According to reports, the group includes ministers who supported the revolution and will be able to institute reformers' demands (Bloomberg).

PACIFIC RIM: Japan PM Kan Clings to Power

Following the abrupt resignation of his foreign minister over a political funding scandal (Reuters), Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan refused calls to step aside for new elections. Experts question whether Kan will be able to break the political gridlock in a government struggling with a huge public debt and a fractured parliament.

China: Beijing's spending on so-called internal security surpassed national defense allocations for the first time in 2010. Analysts suggest the "reprioritized" budget reflects China's growing concern about public unrest, including the Mideast inspired "Jasmine Revolution" (FT) unfolding in parts of the country.

On the CFR blog Asia Unbound, Evan A. Feigenbaum argues the civil unrest in China should not be compared to Egypt, and suggests the challenges to China's political and social stability are real but decidedly longer term.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Gates in Kabul for Talks

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates landed in Kabul for meetings with Hamid Karzai just one day after the Afghan president dismissed an U.S. apology for a number of recent accidental civilian killings (al-Jazeera).

Pakistan: Marc Grossman, the new U.S. special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan (AP), is in Islamabad for his first meetings since he took over the position previously held by the late Richard Holbrooke.

Increasing distrust between the CIA and Pakistan's ISI over the Raymond Davis case could threaten efforts to fight militancy along the Afghan border. Experts Daniel Markey and Shuja Nawaz discuss policy options to restore the relationship.

AFRICA: Crisis Escalates in Ivory Coast

Forces loyal to disputed incumbent Laurent Gbagbo looted the Abidjan homes of ministers appointed by rival Alassane Ouattara. The action is the most recent step in the country's political crisis as it teeters on the brink of civil war (BBC).

This CFR Global Governance Monitor illustrates how the international community is doing in addressing some of the most daunting threats.

AMERICAS: Brazil and South Africa Boost Status

According to an annual BBC poll that gauges a nation's international public image (BBC), Brazil and South Africa had the largest improvements from last year. Polling officials say the "big story" this year is the rising status of so-called middle powers.

United States: The naval warship USS Bulkeley rescued a Japanese-owned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean after four suspected pirates climbed aboard. The Bulkeley is part of the Combined Maritime Forces' CTF-151 counter-piracy mission (CNN), a naval partnership of twenty-five member nations.

EUROPE: Chirac Corruption Trial Opens

The corruption trial involving former French president Jacques Chirac (Euronews) begins today. Chirac, who denies all charges, faces allegations of creating phony jobs for allies in order to help finance his political party.

Greece: Moody's further downgraded its credit rating of Greece from Ba1 to B1 with a negative outlook, just five tiers from the lowest rating. The rating agency cited uncertain financial support for the country after 2013, when the current bailout package expires (Guardian), and suggested it is likely to default on its obligations.

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