Kamis, 10 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 10, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- NATO to Meet on Libya Crisis
- Yemen Edges to Parliamentary Democracy
- Dalai Lama to Pass on Power
- Wisconsin Senate Advances Anti-Union Bill

Top of the Agenda: NATO to Meet on Libya Crisis

NATO defense ministers are scheduled to discuss the international community's response to the ongoing political violence in Libya (CNN). Analysts expect negotiations over a potential no-fly zone to be a top priority. The talks come as anti-government fighters and forces loyal to Muammar al-Qaddafi are locked in fierce battles in several cities including Ras Lanuf, Brega, Bin Jawad, and Az Zawiyah. Reports indicate that pro-regime forces have intensified their counterattacks (al-Jazeera) over the last few days. U.S. officials claim a significant factor in the regime's power is the established brigades of elite soldiers known as a "regime protection force" (WSJ)--designed to protect against a coup by the conscript forces of the regular army.

The French government officially recognized the Libyan National Council (Reuters), an opposition body fighting to overthrow the Qaddafi regime, as the legitimate representative of Libya's people. It is the first country to make such a move. The unrest in North Africa has also raised fears in Europe of new waves of illegal immigration (NYT).

Analysis:

In this article for CNN, CFR's James M. Lindsay discusses "Seven Ugly Options for the U.S. in Libya."

This report from the National Security Network discusses the challenges to U.S. interests in the Arab region, and the prospect of deeper changes that can create more legitimate governments and advance American security interests in the long term.

This CFR Analysis Brief looks at how the widening Mideast unrest--which could soon involve Saudi Arabia--continues to shake oil markets and has policymakers scrambling to quell markets and shield the global economic recovery.

Background:

This CFR Report says the United States must improve its responsiveness to mass atrocities and, absent action by the UN, make clear its willingness to act unilaterally.

Multimedia:

This CFR interactive timeline tracks the relationship between oil dependency and U.S. foreign policy.

In this CFR video, Senior Fellow Michael Levi says the main cause of volatility in oil markets hasn't been the physical impact on oil production. So long as oil prices do not remain high over time, he doesn't expect economic growth to be impacted.

Explore the tumultuous life and reign of Qaddafi in this interactive timeline from the New York Times.

In this podcast from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jessica Tuchman Mathews discusses the politics associated with military intervention in Libya.

MIDDLE EAST: Yemen Edges to Parliamentary Democracy

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh announced he will put a new constitution to a referendum this year and move the country to a "parliamentary system" (al-Jazeera). Saleh made the pledge in a speech to thousands of people at a political demonstration in the capital Sanaa, just one day after two were killed in the unrest.

Jordan: Jordan's largest opposition party, the Islamic Action Front (CP), threatened to boycott a political reform dialogue announced by King Abdullah II, claiming the government is not serious about change. Recent protests in Jordan have not threatened the monarchy but are calling for the king to relinquish some powers.

PACIFIC RIM: Bashir Trial to Proceed

An Indonesian judge declared that prosecutors can move on with their case against radical Indonesian cleric Abu Bakar Bashir (CNN) who has been charged with seven counts of terrorism. This will be Bashir's third trial, following his prosecution in the 2002 bombings in Bali and the 2003 hotel attack in Jakarta.

Japan: The U.S. State Department fired its Japanese policy chief (Guardian), Kevin Maher, after he characterized people in Okinawa as "lazy" and manipulative in a speech to American students in December.

On her CFR blog Asia Unbound, Sheila A. Smith writes that the abrupt resignation of Japan's Foreign Minister, Seiji Maehara, has left the Kan cabinet reeling. Opposition party leaders' calls for Kan's resignation or for a general election suggest that Japan's ruling party may be fatally wounded.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Dalai Lama to Pass on Power

The Dalai Lama (LATimes) announced he will hand over political power to the elected prime minister of the self-proclaimed Tibetan government in exile. Analysts suggest the spiritual leader's move is intended to prevent a political void following his death and ensure an effective response to Chinese crackdowns.

Pakistan: One day after a lethal suicide attack targeted his group, the leader of a powerful anti-Taliban militia (BBC) in northwest Pakistan said he will quit collaboration with the government, citing a lack of support. Experts say the decision could mean the militia will stop fighting the Taliban in the region.

There are clear indications of direct U.S. talks with the Taliban to end violence in Afghanistan, says expert Steve Coll. But the process is fraught with challenges posed by all parties to the conflict, he says.

AFRICA: Morocco Monarchy Vows Reforms

Morocco's King Mohammed VI pledged extensive reforms, including new powers for a democratically elected prime minister and a free judiciary. The king's speech was the first from the monarchy (AFP) since thousands of people starting demonstrating in several cities on February 20 demanding political reform and limits on his powers.

Americas: Wisconsin Senate Advances Anti-Union Bill

After weeks of political wrangling, Wisconsin Republicans used a procedural maneuver to push through a bill ending collective bargaining for public workers (AP). Within hours, thousands of protestors crowded the capital in Madison.

United States: Hearings begin in Congress today on the issue of homegrown Islamic terrorism (NYT). Representative Peter King (R-NY) is leading the hearings, and has received wide criticism over the witnesses he has chosen and fear that the inquest will incite even further radicalization.

Violent acts by homegrown militant extremists in the U.S. have declined, but "lone wolf" attacks are on the rise. The post-9/11 legal and political landscape poses new challenges to law enforcement authorities seeking to prevent such attacks.

EUROPE: Moody's Downgrades Spain

The credit rating agency Moody's downgraded Spain's sovereign debt (FT), agitating financial markets already unsettled by the turmoil in Libya and debt crises in other eurozone economies.

Germany: German commuters faced major delays due to an ongoing strike by train workers (DeutscheWelle). Only a skeleton service remained on the tracks, and analysts claim more strikes could be on the way.

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