Rabu, 02 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 2, 2011

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Libyan Forces Trade Blows
- Iran Protests Met with Tear Gas
- Pakistani Reformer Killed in Ambush
- Tensions Ahead of U.S.-Mexico Summit

Top of the Agenda: Libyan Forces Trade Blows

The pitched battle between pro-Qaddafi forces and rebels continued to rage Wednesday as soldiers loyal to the regime mount­ed an offensive into Libya's east and recaptured the oil refinery city of Brega (WSJ). Air strikes were also reported near the rebel-held city of Ajdabiya, home to a strategic arms depot. Meanwhile, the Libyan autocrat appeared on television (al-Jazeera) blaming al-Qaeda for instigating the unrest and stating that he would fight "to the last man and the last woman."

The UN passed a resolution accusing Libya of gross human rights violations and suspending it from its Human Rights Council (BBC). The international community had floated the idea of establishing a no-fly zone over Libya, however, Britain and the United States played down the tactic and stressed a more cautious tack. U.S Defense Secretary Robert Gates suggested the time is inopportune for U.S. military intervention (NYT) despite the movement of American war ships into the Suez Canal.

Analysis:

The Qaddafi government's violence has resulted in at least three hundred civilian deaths and the attempted flight of Libyans and migrant workers, says Human Rights Watch's Tom Malinowski. The U.S. and NATO should consider preparing military options against the regime and ensure delivery of relief aid, he says.

In Foreign Affairs, Frederic Wehrey writes that for decades, the outsized personality of Qaddafi has obscured the rivalries among Libya's domestic groups, from the tribes to the military. With this era coming to a likely end, how will these actors now vie for supremacy?

Writing for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Lt. Col. Jason Hanover and Jeffrey White detail the risks and the chances for success in three main options for outside military intervention in Libya.

In the New Yorker, James Surowiecki addresses the dangerous state of Mideast economies, and argues, "The autocracies of the Arab world have been as economically destructive as they've been politically repressive."

Multimedia:

The LA Times "Framework" blog offers striking images of the conflict in Libya from both sides.

In this exclusive video interview for CFR, Reza Aslan, author of No God but God, discusses how the uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa influence the balance of power in the region, and whether they are benefiting Iran.

MIDDLE EAST: Iran Protests Met with Tear Gas

In Tehran, Iran's security forces (CNN) fired tear gas in an attempt to disperse anti-government protestors calling for the release of opposition leaders Mir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karrubi. Iranian authorities deny they have detained the two men.

In contrast to other Mideast states, economic pressures are less likely to topple Iran's regime, says expert Suzanne Maloney. Stronger repressive forces and the impact of international sanctions may strengthen the government, she argues.

Israel: As part of interim peace agreement (Haaretz), Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is considering establishing a Palestinian state with temporary borders. This marks a change in his previous strategy of reaching a final-status agreement within a year.

PACIFIC RIM: China Increases Journalists Restrictions

The Wall Street Journal reports that Chinese authorities tightened limitations on journalists' access to areas of Shanghai and Beijing where protestors have been active. In recent days, international journalists have been beaten and detained by Chinese police.

Korea: South Korean activists known as the Fighters for Free North Korea announced they will ship two hundred thousand propaganda leaflets into the North, along with USB drives containing video of the Arab uprisings (AP).

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistani Reformer Killed in Ambush

Pakistani Minorities Minister Shahbaz Bhatti was murdered in his car by gunmen in Islamabad. Bhatti, the only Christian cabinet member and an outspoken critic of the country's blasphemy laws (BBC), had predicted his death in prior statements.

India: India's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, criticized the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (FT) for a lack of "grand vision in the country's leadership." Ambani called for more "disruptive" policies that would involve more people in the nation's prosperity.

A spate of high-profile scams has weakened India's government and raised concerns among foreign investors. Businesses and civil society say the country needs more effective anti-corruption laws.

AFRICA: UN Fears Refugees Trapped in Ivory Coast

Church officials in capital Abidjan (UNNews) told the UN High Commissioner for Refugees that some sixty families, mainly women and children, were trapped in a church and prevented from leaving by armed men.

AMERICAS: Tensions Ahead of U.S-Mexico Summit

As Mexican President Felipe Calderon prepares for an official visit to Washington (AP) on Thursday, several areas of friction aggravate relations between the two nations including the ongoing drug war, immigration problems, and the recent murder of a U.S. official.

Calderon's visit to Washington offers a chance at easing tensions over the cross-border drug trade, and far more than security issues are at stake, says CFR's Shannon O'Neil.

United States: The Senate is scheduled to vote on bill that will extend funding for the federal government (CNN) through March 18. The bill would cut spending by $4 billion--most legislative observers expect the measure to pass.

EUROPE: New Defense Minister for Germany

A day after the high-profile resignation of Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg due to a plagiarism scandal, Germany's interior minister Thomas de Maiziere will step into to fill the vacancy at the Defense Ministry (DeutscheWelle).

The Netherlands: Dutch voters will decide whether the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Mark Rutte can obtain a majority in the national parliament's upper house. Analysts claim the vote is an important test for a coalition that has vowed broad austerity measures (AP) in the aftermath of the global economic crisis.

EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR

Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook.

Privacy Policy
The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties.

Council on Foreign Relations
58 East 68th Street
New York, NY 10065
Tel. +1 212.434.9400
Fax: +1 212.434.9800

Learn about this and other newsletters offered by the Council on Foreign Relations.

To pause your subscription, to switch between HTML and text-only versions of the newsletter, to change your email address, or to unsubscribe, click here.


Email list management powered by http://MailerMailer.com