Jumat, 04 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 4, 2011

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- From Prayers to Protests in Libya
- Iraqis Protest for Second Friday
- China Steps up Military Spending
- U.S.-Mexico Trucking Deal Reached

Top of the Agenda: From Prayers to Protests in Libya

Libyan protestors swarmed into the streets of Tripoli following Friday prayers (NYT), flouting the regime's attempt to lockdown the city. The demonstrations soon petered out as Muammar al-Qaddafi's forces sprayed the crowd with tear gas and what witnesses say was live ammunition. In recent days, militia and mercenaries loyal to Qaddafi have patrolled the streets of Tripoli (BBC) in civilian cars and detained and killed people at will, according to reports.

Opposition forces said Libyan air strikes (al-Jazeera) hit near a military base on the outskirts of Ajdabiya, and other clashes are reported in Ras Lanuf, an eastern oil port, and Az-Zawiyah, thirty miles west of Tripoli. Government war planes also dropped bombs for the second consecutive day on the rebel-held city of Brega. A senior army officer in Benghazi, Libya's second largest city and headquarters for the opposition, told the Financial Times that three or four brigades of Qaddafi's men were marching east toward Brega and marshaling near Ras Lanuf.

U.S. President Barack Obama said publicly that the Libyan dictator must relinquish power, and he ordered the U.S. military to reposition forces near the embattled nation. Administration officials indicated the scenarios under consideration were humanitarian rather than military (WSJ). The International Criminal Court (AllAfrica) is preparing to investigate the Qaddafi regime for crimes against humanity related to his tactics of violent repression.

Analysis:

The Arab world's new revolutionary fervor marks a convergence of values the United States should welcome even if it means rethinking the balance of interests and ideals, says Middle East expert Richard Murphy.

The Economist investigates fissures in the Libyan opposition movement, tribal politics, and the potential seeds of civil war.

On his CFR blog The Water's Edge, James Lindsay asks: "What if Qaddafi Hangs On?"

In this analysis from the World Policy Institute, Frank Spring discusses al-Qaeda as a "complete non-factor" in the change cascading through the Maghreb.

Multimedia:

This interactive map and timeline from the Wall Street Journal tracks events in the countries facing unrest in North Africa and the Middle East.

In this video from PBS Newshour, Jeffrey Brown talks to Libyan-born poet Khaled Mattawa about life under the Qaddafi regime and the recent crisis in his homeland.

On STRATFOR, Mark Schroeder examines political and economic ties between Libya and other African states, and how Qaddafi's ousting may affect them.

In a country-by-country look, the New York Times posts the latest reports from correspondents along with social media updates on the protest movements in the Arab world.

MIDDLE EAST: Iraqis Protest for Second Friday

Hundreds of protestors streamed into Baghdad's central square demanding better pay, improved services, and an end to corruption. Security forces are heavily dispersed in anticipation of the nationwide demonstrations (AP), as at least fourteen were killed in similar events last Friday.

Yemen: In the north, soldiers opened fire on Yemeni activists (al-Jazeera) calling for an end to President Ali Abdullah Saleh's rule, killing at least two. A proposal put forth by opposition groups requests an end to Saleh's regime, constitutional and electoral reforms, and the right to peaceful protest.

PACIFIC RIM: China Steps up Military Spending

China will increase its defense spending by 12.7 percent (FT). Beijing's brisk military modernization campaign is worrying neighbors in the region, who view its posture as increasingly aggressive.

On her CFR blog Asia Unbound, Elizabeth Economy explains "why China is more like the Middle East than we think."

South Korea: Hackers targeted the websites of the president's office and several other major institutions with so-called denial-of-service cyberattacks (Yonhap), which overload servers and block access.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan PM Lauds Slain Minister

In offering his condolences to those mourning the death of Shahbaz Bhatti (AP), an outspoken critic of harsh blasphemy laws, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani said Bhatti was a great leader and vowed to do his "utmost" to find those responsible.

India: In the state of Orissa, a top manager at an Indian steel factory (BBC) was burned to death in his jeep by a group of workers. The factory had recently announced the suspension of some twenty-five workers, and observers say the atmosphere was toxic amid rumors of layoffs.

AFRICA: Ivory Coast on Brink of Civil War

Six female protestors demanding the removal of contested incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo were shot dead by members of his militia. Some analysts fear the post-election violence has reached a tipping point in its slide to civil war (LATimes).

UN peacekeeping is a crucial U.S. partner in maintaining stability, but the Obama administration must take a more vigorous role in promoting it or risk losing support in Congress, write CFR's Micah Zenko and Rebecca Friedman.

AMERICAS: U.S.-Mexico Trucking Deal Reached

U.S. President Barack Obama and Mexican President Felipe Calderon reached a deal that would remove most constraints on trucking across the U.S.-Mexico border (SanDiegoUnionTribune). Cross-border trucking has been possible since the passage of NAFTA, but the implementation has been impeded by legal challenges from unions and lawmakers.

Improving bilateral relations is a priority for Calderon's visit to Washington. This Council Special Report argues that the United States can help Mexico fight corruption and its drug wars by strengthening its economy, political institutions, and civil society.

Haiti: Mirlande Manigat, who faces Michel Martelly in the March 20 presidential run-off, told reporters she hopes former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide (Reuters) will wait to return from exile until after the election, as the left-wing populist's homecoming would only add to national tension.

EUROPE: Potential Rate Hike for Eurozone

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet told reporters that increasing interest rates at the next ECB meeting was likely. The unexpected announcement surprised the markets, possibly signaling that concerns of economic overheating (WSJ) may be surpassing worries of the bloc's financial vulnerabilities.

UK: Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks (DeutscheWelle), appealed a UK ruling requiring his extradition to Sweden to face allegations of sex crimes, although the appeal may take months to be heard.

TRANSNATIONAL: World Food Prices Hit Twenty-Year High

The UN says food costs (AP) have reached their highest point since the organization began keeping records twenty years ago. Higher prices have thrust an estimated forty-four million people into extreme poverty worldwide.

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