Kamis, 17 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 17, 2011

View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Emergency Cooling Continues in Japan
- U.S. Would Back No-Fly Zone
- Pakistan Protests Davis Release
- Humanitarian Crisis in Ivory Coast

Top of the Agenda: Emergency Cooling Continues in Japan

Japanese authorities are ramping up attempts to cool overheating fuel at the beleaguered Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. In an effort to avert a nuclear meltdown, military helicopters dumped tons of seawater aimed at cooling ponds (BBC) situated above the reactors, which store fuel rods. According to experts (LAT), the ponds are critically short of water, and may be dry--increasing the chance of radioactive release. Tokyo Electric Power, the plant's operator, said the water dump failed to decrease radiation levels at the facility, and added that cooling down the number three reactor (CNN) was their top concern. Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa stressed the situation's urgency, saying the decision to address the crisis from the air and ground was made despite concerns about exposing workers to high levels of radiation.

The nuclear drama continues as the official death toll from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami (FT) climbed to 5,178 with more than nine thousand still missing. Millions of people have lost power and at least 344,000 are being housed in emergency shelters. In response to the nuclear disaster, China placed a moratorium on approval for new nuclear projects. China (SkyNews) is building around twenty-eight nuclear plants, roughly 40 percent of the global nuclear projects under construction. The U.S. State Department advised all U.S. citizens to consider leaving Japan (Politico), saying it will help evacuate private citizens who want to leave but have been unable to do so commercially.

Analysis:

Despite turbulence in financial markets, Japan's multiple disasters will likely not have a major global economic impact, and reconstruction will provide a boost to the Japanese economy in the long term, says CFR's Sebastian Mallaby.

An extraordinary series of events caused Japan's nuclear crisis, but it appears backup safety systems were flawed, says nuclear expert Charles Ferguson. He expects the disaster to slow some nuclear projects elsewhere but not cause a wholesale stoppage.

This article from the Economist discusses Japan's catastrophes and ponders whether the country will be able to endure the three-pronged disaster.

Background:

This interactive Nuclear Energy Guide from CFR explores the past, present, and future of nuclear power, focusing on its unique benefits and risks.

Multimedia:

In this CFR Media Conference Call, Sheila Smith and Michael Levi discuss Japan's earthquake and its political, economic, and energy implications.

MIDDLE EAST: U.S. Would Back No-Fly Zone

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice suggested the United States would support harsher measures in the Security Council against the al-Qaddafi regime, “steps that include, but perhaps go beyond, a no-fly zone” (FT). Experts say the shift marks a major change in White House policy in the last twenty-four hours.

In this CFR online debate, Micah Zenko and Elliott Abrams discuss the question of U.S. military intervention in Libya.

Bahrain: Security forces detained at least six opposition activists (CNBC) in an expanding effort to clamp down on anti-government dissent aimed at overthrowing the regime. The arrests come a day after the Bahraini military cleared central Manama of protest camps, a move that left three police and three protestors dead.

On his CFR blog Pressure Points, Elliott Abrams examines the deteriorating situation in Bahrain and asks, “What comes next?”

Tunisia: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrived in Tunisia (AFP) to show support for the country's transition to democracy and meet with interim President Foued Mebazaa. Tunis is the final stop of Clinton's three-leg tour that also included Paris and Cairo.

PACIFIC RIM: Monk's Death Sparks Demonstrations

A young monk from a Tibetan Buddhist monastery in southwestern China set himself on fire to protest Chinese rule of Tibetan regions (AFP). Witnesses say hundreds of monks and civilians then protested near the monastery.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Protests Davis Release

Following the controversial release of U.S. contractor Raymond Davis (al-Jazeera), Pakistani citizens held protests in Peshawar. U.S. officials deny paying compensation to secure Davis's release, while the Pakistani government has not commented.

India: A diplomatic cable made public by WikiLeaks indicates that India's ruling Congress party bribed MPs ahead of a vote over a controversial nuclear deal (BBC) with the United States. According to analysts, if the government lost the vote, India could have faced early elections, and the nuclear deal would have been jeopardized.

AFRICA: Humanitarian Crisis in Ivory Coast

Doctors Without Borders says increasing violence has led to only one hospital functioning normally in Abidjan's Abobo district (ReliefWeb), home to approximately two million residents. International sanctions have also led to shortages in medicines and medical supplies.

On his CFR blog Africa in Transition, John Campbell writes on how the international community's attention is far from the conflict in Cote d'Ivoire, which nevertheless continues its downward spiral.

AMERICAS: Aristide Homecoming Expected in Days

Following seven years of exile in South Africa, former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide (MiamiHerald) is expected to return to Haiti in days. The homecoming happens amid diplomatic pressure from the international community to prevent Aristide from upsetting the political situation in Haiti with the presidential and legislative runoff elections.

Mexico: The Mexican government confirmed reports that the United States has been flying unarmed drones (BBC) over its territory since February in an effort to gather intelligence on drug cartels. The flights were requested by the Mexican government and are monitored by the Mexican Air Force.

EUROPE: Europol Busts Child Pornography Ring

European authorities arrested 184 alleged members of a worldwide online pedophile ring (DeutscheWelle) and rescued 230 child victims of abuse. Officials say the probe started three years ago and targeted an online network based in the Netherlands that, at its height, had nearly seventy thousand members.

Germany: German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced the government would accelerate its transition to renewable energy (RFE/RL) in light of the nuclear crisis in Japan.

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