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January 19, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Tunisian 'Unity' Government in Jeopardy - Saudi FM Abandons Lebanon Mediation - Court Asks for Delay to Afghan Parliament - Charges Brought Against Former Haitian Dictator Top of the Agenda: Tunisian 'Unity' Government in Jeopardy Tunisia's main opposition party, Democratic Forum for Labor and Unity, refused to rejoin the nation's floundering "unity" government (al-Jazeera) and called for ousted president Ben Ali's former ruling party to be disbanded. Four of the group's members resigned on Tuesday, citing frustration that remnants of the old administration (NYT) were still present in the new government. Hundreds of protestors took to the streets in Tunis and Sidi Bouzid to support opposition demands. Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi is fighting to persuade the nation that the interim government can lead the transition to democracy (Guardian), vowing to hold free and fair elections in six months. In response to the unrest in Tunisia, Arab leaders are expected to commit a proposed $2 million to reinforce struggling Arab economies (al-Jazeera). The pledge was made ahead of Wednesday's Arab economic summit, where leaders called for "Tunisian national unity" (Reuters). In speaking with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, U.S. President Barack Obama also expressed the "U.S. desire for calm in Tunisia" (Reuters). Analysis: In the LA Times, Jeffrey Fleishman argues that al-Jazeera's rapid-paced, visceral coverage of the Tunisian upheaval has riveted viewers across the Middle East, where many see it as a big voice in a landscape of burgeoning Arab dissent. On his blog "From the Potomac to the Euphrates," CFR's Stephen A. Cook discusses the politics surrounding the crisis in Tunisia. In this article for the Global Post, Mohamad Bazzi argues that U.S. silence on Tunisia proves it favors stability over democracy in Arab world. MIDDLE EAST: Saudi FM Abandons Lebanon Mediation Describing the atmosphere in Lebanon (Ahram) as "dangerous," Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal signaled the end of Saudi efforts at political mediation. Fears of renewed sectarian violence have risen since a UN tribunal submitted its indictment on Monday into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri. In this op-ed for The National, CFR Senior Fellow Mohamad Bazzi says the people of Lebanon are once again staring into a political abyss. Israel: In his first visit to the West Bank, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated his country's endorsement of an independent Palestinian state (al-Jazeera) with a capital in East Jerusalem. Medvedev stressed there would be "no progress" without an Israeli decision on settlement building. With this compelling Crisis Guide, CFR offers an in-depth, multimedia look at the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its geopolitical repercussions. PACIFIC RIM: Flooding Forces More Evacuations in Australia Officials advised residents of Kerang, in the southeastern state of Victoria, to evacuate amid fears of impending flood waters (BBC). The natural disaster has struck at least fifty-eight towns across Victoria, and residents have been warned of more heavy rain to come. Vietnam: In the wake of the country's Communist national congress (FT), economic analysts have little hope for new Vietnamese policies that will address the longstanding problems of macro-economic instability, growing inequality, waste, and corruption. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Court Asks for Delay to Afghan Parliament A special court appointed by President Hamid Karzai recommended delaying inauguration of the country's parliament so it could complete its inquiry into the potentially fraudulent elections (NYT). Many international observers and human rights activists have questioned the legality of the special court. This Independent Task Force report assesses U.S. objectives, strategy, and policy options in Pakistan and Afghanistan. It supports a long-term partnership with Pakistan, and calls for a new approach to Afghan political reform, reconciliation, and regional diplomacy. India: The home secretaries for Bangladesh and India are scheduled to begin talks in Dhaka on security-related issues, including border violence (BBC). Human rights groups claim that more than nine hundred civilians have been killed by Indian border guards in the last decade, which has fueled public outrage in Bangladesh. AFRICA: UN Security Council Lauds Referendum In a formal statement, the UN Security Council praised the "peaceful" end to Sudan's referendum and urged both sides to adhere to the results due in early February. Officials repeated ongoing concerns over oil-rich Abyei (UNNews), a disputed border region where the referendum was delayed amid continued violence. AMERICAS: Charges Brought Against Former Haitian Dictator Nearly twenty-five years after being forced from power, former Haitian dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier is facing charges of corruption and embezzlement in Port-au-Prince (WashPost). Brazil: In one of the nation's worst natural disasters, the death toll from flooding in Rio de Janeiro's Serrana region (Reuters) topped seven hundred on Tuesday. President Dilma Rousseff met with World Bank officials to work out the details on a $485 million emergency relief loan. EUROPE: Irish PM Survives 'No Confidence' Vote Amid growing national discontent over his handling of the economic crisis (IrishTimes), Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen won a critical vote of no confidence on Tuesday. New elections are scheduled to take place over the next few weeks. UK: Four employees of a London-based European reconstruction bank (Guardian) are under investigation for violating the bank's code of conduct and other alleged criminal activities. The workers are Russian representatives at the bank, which was established to aid countries emerging from post-communism. TRANSNATIONAL: Maritime Piracy Hits Record High in 2010 According to the International Maritime Bureau (Bloomberg), pirates hijacked a total of fifty-three vessels and held some 1,181 crew hostage in 2010--both new records. Most attacks were concentrated in the Indian Ocean, off the coast of Somalia and Nigeria, but also occurred off of Indonesia and Bangladesh.

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