January 14, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Tunisian President Vows to End Reign - UN Report on Lebanon Assassination 'Imminent' - Taliban to End Ban on Girls' Education - Eurozone Inflation Hits Two-Year High Top of the Agenda: Tunisian President Vows to End Reign In an effort to pacify nationwide unrest (CNN), Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali announced on national radio that he will not seek reelection after twenty-three years in office. Despite the concession, violent protests continue to rage and have claimed the lives of at least twenty-three (al-Jazeera). Observers cite high unemployment and fierce police crackdown as origins of the political turmoil (WSJ). Thousands of demonstrators swarmed the Interior Ministry on Friday morning, calling for the president's immediate resignation. One of President Ben Ali's most outspoken opponents has requested the formation of a coalition government (NYT). The public clashes in Tunisia coincide with a high-profile speech (WashPost) made by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton emphasizing the need for political reform in the Arab world. Analysis: In this op-ed for The Huffington Post, Isobel Coleman and Charles Landow discuss how lack of good governance in Africa condemns millions to poverty and fails to unleash the continent's great potential. This article for ForeignPolicy.com questions the media's limited coverage of the Tunisian crisis, and asks, "Where are the democracy promoters in Tunisia?" MIDDLE EAST: UN Report on Lebanon Assassination 'Imminent' According to a prosecutor associated with the inquiry, the findings of a UN special report on the 2005 assassination (Reuters) of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri are "imminent." Analysts expect indictments to fall on members of Hezbollah and fear an outbreak of political violence. The UN tribunal's findings could link Hezbollah and Syria to the death of Hariri. Lebanon expert Michael Young says all sides, including Saudi Arabia and the U.S., are scrambling to deal with the impact of the findings. Following the dissolution of the Lebanese government (al-Jazeera), President Michel Suleiman has asked Saad al-Hariri to stay on as a caretaker prime minister and help form a new coalition. PACIFIC RIM: Gates Pushes Solidarity with Korea In meetings with South Korean leader Lee Myung-bak, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates reaffirmed solidarity against North Korean aggression (NYT) and said the United States was concerned that "North Korea's continued belligerence and repeated provocations" had raised tensions on the peninsula. With tensions on the Korean peninsula continuing to arouse U.S. concern, expert Leon Sigal calls for the United States and South Korea to support a peace process and political and economic engagement with North Korea. China: In an effort to raise the global profile of its currency, China will begin allowing domestic companies to move yuan offshore (CNN) to launch businesses overseas and fund acquisitions. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Taliban to End Ban on Girls' Education The Taliban is ready to end its opposition to the education of women (BBC), due to a government-supported campaign that struck pacts between local officials and militants across the country. The Taliban needs to be convinced of a firm U.S. commitment in Afghanistan before it will negotiate a settlement, says CFR's Stephen Biddle, and any deal will have to also involve the Pakistani, U.S., and Afghan governments. Pakistan: Ten people were gunned down in Karachi, raising the death toll to nineteen in the last forty-eight hours. Police have characterized the violence as politically or ethnically motivated (AP). AFRICA: Goodluck Jonathan Secures Nigerian Primary Incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan won an overwhelming victory in the Nigerian party primaries (BBC), continuing his streak of electoral success since the end of military rule in 1999. However, opponents have criticized many of his past victories as fraudulent. Americas: Brazil Floods Kill Hundreds Flooding in southeastern Brazil (BBC) has killed at least five hundred people and left thousands more homeless. In the country's worst natural disaster in decades, President Dilma Rousseff said the state would care for the victims but expressed anger at illegal construction, which added to the crisis. United States: The U.S. House will begin debate on repealing the healthcare bill next week (WashPost). The repeal was scheduled for this week, but was postponed after the shooting in Tucson. Europe: Eurozone Inflation Hits Two-Year High Eurozone inflation hit a twenty-six month high (WSJ), driven in large part by higher fuel, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices. Despite the increase, economists don't believe the European Central Bank will raise interest rates. Italy: Italy's top court ruled out immunity status for Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi (DeutscheWelle), who faces charges of corruption, tax fraud, false accounting, and illegally financing political parties.

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