Rabu, 26 Januari 2011

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

January 26, 2011

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Executive Summary

- Obama Calls for New Spending and Cuts
- Lebanon Return to Calm after Protests
- Chinese Leader Urges Public Criticism
- World Economic Forum Opens in Davos

Top of the Agenda: Obama Calls for New Spending and Cuts

In his State of the Union address, U.S. President Barack Obama outlined a plan for investment (NYT) in critical areas like education, high-speed rail, and clean-energy technology, as well as streamlining the tax code to help the United States meet the challenge of globalization and that from emerging economies such as China and India. "We need to out-innovate, out-educate, and out-build the rest of the world," he said in his speech. At the same time, Obama, who is facing massive deficits in the future (WashPost), did not call for new programs. Instead, he pledged a five-year budget freeze on non-defense discretionary spending, which he said had the potential to reduce the deficit by $400 billion over ten years.

Though he laid out the stark challenges facing the nation, Obama was short on details about how to reduce the growing deficit. And stressing the need for new investment over budget cuts led many commentators, especially conservatives, to question Obama's priorities. "No economy can sustain such high levels of debt and taxation," said Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan, who gave the GOP reply speech to the State of the Union. "The next generation will inherit a stagnant economy and a diminished country." When Obama did address foreign policy, he primarily focused on his latest wins--such as ratifying the New START arms control deal with Russia and the trade agreement with South Korea--and bypassed a host of troublesome issues like drug violence in Mexico, instability in Pakistan, and climate change.

Analysis

In this Expert Roundup, CFR's Sebastian Mallaby and James Lindsay examine the economic and foreign policy aspects of the speech.

In a blog, CFR's Michael Levi looks at Obama's pledge to have 80 percent of electricity come from "clean energy" sources by 2035.

David Sanger writes in the New York Times that one of Obama's "subtexts on Tuesday night was that doing big things these days may require a bit more humility, a lot more work, and some international partners that Americans rarely thought about twenty years ago but whose competition they have now grown to fear."

Politico's Daren Samuelsohn says a "clean energy standard" could be the most politically feasible way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on Capitol Hill in this Congress.

The National Journal provides eight pieces of analysis on issues raised in the speech, ranging from education to clean energy to foreign policy.

Background

This CFR Issue Guide provides background on the numerous challenges facing the nation.

MIDDLE EAST: Lebanon Return to Calm after Protests

Lebanese security officials removed barriers and opened transportation in Beirut after two days of protests against the new prime minister chosen by Hezbollah (Haaretz). Prime Minister-designate Najib Miqati is set to start forming a new government and is scheduled to visit former Lebanese leaders on Wednesday.

Egypt: Following Egypt's nationwide "Day of Revolt," in which three demonstrators and one police officer died, the government banned all gatherings (BBC), protests, and marches. Some dissenters began gathering again on Wednesday despite the ban, but it's unclear whether mass protests will continue for a second day.

CFR Senior Fellow Steven Cook blogs from the ground in Egypt on the unrest associated with National Police Day.

Iraq: Heritage Oil, an independent oil exploration company, announced the discovery of the largest gas field in Iraq (Bloomberg) in more than thirty years. Located in Iraq's Kurdistan region, the field could be worth up to $2.7 billion according to company estimates.

PACIFIC RIM: Chinese Leader Urges Public Criticism

In an unusual meeting at China's central complaints department (Guardian), the Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao listened to criticism, urging petitioners “don't hold anything back.” Some critics have dismissed the display as propaganda, while other argue it is the first time a premier has met petitioners face to face since the Communists took power.

Japan: Toyota announced a global recall (NYT) for 1.7 million of its vehicles due to defective fuel pipes and high-pressure fuel pumps. The Japanese carmaker issued a total of eighteen separate recalls in the United States last year, twice its previous record.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Karzai Opens New Parliament

President Hamid Karzai inaugurated a new session of parliament (WashPost) on Wednesday as part of a compromise with national lawmakers that will allow a special court to continue investigating alleged wrongdoing in the elections. In his opening remarks, Karzai claimed that unnamed foreigners interfered with the September elections.

India: India and Indonesia plan to double trade to $25 billion a year by 2015, highlighting a new “South-South” trading trend that economists view as an important growth strategy for emerging economies (WSJ) looking to expand investment beyond the U.S., Europe, and Japan.

AFRICA: World Leaders to Meet on Ivory Coast Presidential Crisis

Leaders from the Economic Council of West African States plan to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon this week in New York to discuss the ongoing presidential election crisis in Ivory Coast (This Day).

AMERICAS: Embassy Bomber Receives Life Sentence

The first Guantanamo Bay detainee to be tried in U.S. federal court under the Obama administration was sentenced to life in prison for conspiring with members of al-Qaeda to destroy two U.S. embassies in Africa in 1998. Experts said the case demonstrated the efficacy of civilian courts for Guantanamo detainees (NPR).

John B. Bellinger argues that the 112th Congress must update and clarify the legal authority for U.S. military and intelligence agencies to kill and detain terrorists who threaten the United States.

EUROPE: World Economic Forum Opens in Davos

Some 2,500 of the world's top business leaders, politicians, and social activists began meetings to address the major economic issues facing the globe, including China's growing clout and the European debt crisis (AP). The theme of this year's meeting is "Shared Norms for the New Reality."

Ireland: Critical rescue funds from the EU and IMF (FT) may not be released unless Ireland's minority government is able to garner legislative support from opposition MPs. According to officials, three independent members are holding out for amendments.

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