Kamis, 27 Januari 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

January 27, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Egypt Protests Continue for Third Day
- Arab Protests Spread to Yemen
- Haitian Ruling Party Pulls Candidate
- Business Leaders Optimistic on Eurozone

Top of the Agenda: Egypt Protests Continue for Third Day

In a third day of anti-government protests inspired in part by the tumult in Tunisia, clashes continued between demonstrators and police in several parts of Egypt, including Cairo and Suez (al-Jazeera). At least four activists have been killed during the unprecedented period of unrest, rallying against rising food costs, failed economic policies, and President Hosni Mubarak's thirty-year rule. Analysts expect the situation to gather steam with the arrival of Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the UN nuclear watchdog and a possible presidential rival to Mubarak (Haaretz). Shortly before his return to join in demonstrations, ElBaradei said it was time for Mubarak to step aside.

The Egyptian government has declared the protests illegal, increasing security and arresting up to a thousand (BBC), according to reports. Experts suggest that even if Mubarak manages to survive the crisis politically, his campaign to install his son as successor (FT) is finished. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on Egypt to "respond to the legitimate needs" of its citizens. Media reports claim there is discussion among protestors about staging a big demonstration on Friday (CNN) following Muslim prayers.

Analysis:

CFR Senior Fellow Steven Cook blogs on the unrest from the ground in Egypt.

On the eve of his return, ElBaradei, the Mubarak regime's most high-profile opponent, writes for the Daily Beast on the young people who've taken to the streets, political Islam, and the role of the United States.

This editorial for the National Review suggests that given the Islamist alternative, Mubarak's exit should be regarded with trepidation.

Background:

This CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum discusses political instability in Egypt and assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take.

MIDDLE EAST: Arab Protests Spread to Yemen

Spurred by the recent waves of unrest in Egypt and Tunisia, thousands of protestors flooded the capital of Yemen (Haaretz) on Thursday to demand a change in government. President Ali Abdullah Saleh has ruled the country for over thirty years and served as a key ally of the United States in its war against al-Qaeda.

PACIFIC RIM: U.S. Says Beijing Wants to Contain North Korea

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen said Chinese leaders expressed renewed commitment to containing Pyongyang (FT) following last week's visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao. In prior statements, Mullen has accused Beijing of giving North Korea "tacit approval" for acts of aggression against its southern neighbor.

Australia: The Australian government proposed a temporary tax (Guardian) to help pay for flood reconstruction efforts expected to top $5.5 billion. Prime Minister Julia Gillard said the tax would apply to Australians on above-average incomes for a year and raise an estimated $1.8 billion.

Australia's continued flooding is expected to cost billions in losses and clean-up, and some scientists believe the devastating floods are a harbinger of increasing extreme weather events to come.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Mass Protests Follow Murder of Indian Official

In the Indian state of Maharashtra, hundreds of thousands of government workers are protesting the murder of an official, Yashwant Sonawane, who was burned to death while investigating a fuel racket. The case has drawn attention to the issue of corruption as the government is blaming the so-called fuel mafia (BBC).

Afghanistan: U.S. diplomats and international Christian organizations are lobbying Afghanistan for the release of two Christian converts who have been were arrested on apostasy charges (WSJ). The two men could face the death penalty if convicted.

AFRICA: Tunisia Likely to Reshuffle Cabinet

Following ongoing nationwide protests (al-Jazeera), Tunisia's interim government is likely to purge its cabinet of several ministers with links to the former President Ben Ali. Tunisian officials are seeking an international arrest warrant to bring Ben Ali and his family to justice for theft and currency offenses during his rule.

Uganda: According to Human Rights Watch, gay rights activist David Kato, who was featured with other gays in a newspaper article headlined "Hang Them," was beaten to death in his Kampala home. It is unclear whether the killing was linked to his activism or to his outing in the newspaper (Reuters).

CFR Africa expert John Campbell discusses the increasing violence and deteriorating human rights situation in Cote d'Ivoire following the disputed elections.

AMERICAS: Haitian Ruling Party Pulls Candidate

Following weeks of international pressure, Haiti's ruling Inite Party withdrew support of its presidential candidate Jude Célestin. Observers expect the move to improve the potential for solving the political impasse from last November's contested presidential election (WSJ).

United States: GOP congressional leaders say they will use their new majority in the House to push for more aggressive deportation of illegal immigrants. In contrast to the Obama administration's proposals for a "path to citizenship," Republican lawmakers argued for returning to workplace raids (LAT).

Some GOP lawmakers have proposed legislation to eliminate birthright citizenship, but legal expert Margaret Stock says these proposals would create vast logistical and social problems and are unlikely to succeed.

EUROPE: Business Leaders Optimistic on Eurozone

Meeting at the World Economic Forum in Davos (Reuters), global business leaders expressed confidence that the European financial community is taking effective action to help weaker members and restore stability in the financial sector. EU leaders are expected to adopt a comprehensive package of economic measures at a summit in late March.

Belarus: The EU decided to reinstitute its visa ban (Guardian) for Belarusian President Aleksander Lukashenko in response to his post-election crackdown of opposition supporters.

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