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January 18, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Chinese President to Arrive in Washington - Tunisian PM Oversees Interim Government - Return of Former Dictator Adds to Haiti Turmoil - Less Anxiety over EU Fund Overhaul Top of the Agenda: Chinese President to Arrive in Washington Chinese President Hu Jintao is set to arrive in Washington, DC, today for a four-day state visit (BBC) that many analysts describe as the most important trip by a Chinese leader in thirty years. U.S. President Barack Obama is expected to take a tougher stance as the two nations address crucial issues like North Korea, trade, and currency policy (CNN). In the weeks leading up to the summit, several U.S. cabinet officials have criticized China on these very issues. In addition, the United States has condemned the Chinese military buildup (NYT) in the Pacific, as well as the country's controversial human rights record. However, there have been recent signs of closer cooperation between the United States and China on issues ranging from climate change to North Korea--some analysts are optimistic that the world's two largest economies might find more common ground (CSMonitor). Analysis: A series of frank statements by U.S. officials before the upcoming summit with Chinese President Hu provides an important new footing for advancing cooperation between the two countries, says CFR's Elizabeth Economy. In this op-ed for the LA Times, Jonah Goldberg argues that despite China's rising global profile, the country still has several impediments to overcome, and he stresses that American leadership will still be the norm. On the CFR Blog "Asia Unbound," Evan Feigenbaum addresses the prospects, politics, and expectations surrounding the historic U.S.-China presidential summit. MIDDLE EAST: Barak's Labor Exit Stirs Israel Politics The decision by Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak to leave the Labor Party and form a smaller centrist faction will likely strengthen the political hand of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Reuters. Despite an overall drop in his majority, Netanyahu is no longer vulnerable to the departure of Labor. Iraq: At least forty-five people were killed in a suicide attack targeting an Iraqi police recruiting station in Tikrit (AP). As the Iraqi government attempts to assume control over its national security, recruiting stations remain preferred targets for insurgent attacks. Mohamad Bazzi says Muqtada al-Sadr has returned home to play a central part in Iraqi politics and to oversee his movement's transition from a militia force to a powerful political group. PACIFIC RIM: Taiwan Holds Missile Tests One day before an historic China-U.S. presidential summit, Taiwan held live-fire missile tests (NYT) with mixed results. Government officials said the timing was mere coincidence, and dates for the exercise had been scheduled far in advance. Korea: Despite ongoing efforts at rekindling international negotiations, Pyongyang and Seoul remain divided over key points. South Korea continues to demand the North apologize for its recent acts of belligerence and promise to denuclearize (Yonhap). SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India Businessmen Issue Anti-Corruption Letter In an open letter to the nation's political establishment, several of India's top executives and prominent citizens expressed alarm at the corruption in the world's second-fastest-growing economy. Last year, India's telecom minister resigned under allegations of corruption associated with the below-market sale of wireless spectrum (CNN). Pakistan: According to U.S. counterinsurgency officials, Pakistan's refusal to strike at militants in its border regions increases the lethality of U.S. drone attacks (NYT). Insurgents congregate in the so-called safe havens and provide a target-rich environment for missile strikes. AFRICA: Tunisian PM Oversees Interim Government Following the overthrow of President Ben Ali last Friday, Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi will manage the transition government (BBC) and has vowed to begin constitutional reforms and preparation for free and fair elections. Ghannouchi hopes the democratic concessions will mollify those angered by the retention of some members of the old regime. Military and popular support for President Ben Ali's departure from power could mean pressure on new leadership for reform, and could also lead to modest concessions to reform in Egypt and elsewhere, says CFR's Steven Cook. Sudan: A leading Islamist opposition leader, Hassan Al-Turabi, was arrested by Sudanese security forces (SudanTribune) for suspected plans to instigate protests similar to those in Tunisia. Al-Turabi was once a close ally of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir until Al-Turabi was removed in a bitter power struggle. AMERICAS: Return of Former Dictator Adds to Haiti Turmoil The return of Jean-Claude Duvalier, the former Haitian dictator (WashPost), adds greater chaos to an already tense political situation. Haiti's presidential runoff vote has been delayed and there is still great uncertainty over whether the country's current president will step down. EUROPE: Less Anxiety over EU Fund Overhaul International pressure to "reinforce" the eurozone's crisis fund has decreased following the recent improvement of the European bond market (DeutscheWelle). Meeting in Brussels on Monday, EU finance ministers indicated a reform package may not be ready until March. Portugal could be the next victim of the eurozone debt crisis, but an EU-IMF led bailout is unlikely to solve the eurozone's larger problems, experts say. Spain: Spanish police seized the "biggest and most sophisticated" cocaine lab in Europe according to the AP. Following a two-year investigation, the record bust included the seizure of over six hundred pounds of cocaine and the arrest of several Spanish and Colombian suspects.

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