Senin, 04 April 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

April 4, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Multiple Efforts to End Libyan Conflict
- Live Fire Kills Protestors in South Yemen
- Japan to Dump Radioactive Water
- Obama Announces Reelection Run

Top of the Agenda: Multiple Efforts Arise to End Libyan Conflict

Libya's deputy foreign minister, Abdelati Obeidi, arrived in Athens on Sunday to discuss an end to hostilities (FT) with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. British diplomats played down the gesture, as there was no indication of the negotiations' terms. The New York Times reports that two of Muammar al-Qaddafi's sons, Seif and Saadi, are also proposing a resolution to the fighting, which would end their father's rule and transition the country to a constitutional democracy under Seif's leadership. It is not clear whether Qaddafi approves of this move, and both coalition forces and the Libyan opposition have, so far, sought a more "radical break" with the regime.

The British government sent envoys to Benghazi over the weekend to meet with key members of the opposition Transitional National Council (al-Jazeera) to obtain further information about the movement and the ongoing conflict. In a renewed offensive, rebel forces pushed toward Brega (BBC) in an effort to recapture the oil town lost to Qaddafi loyalists. Misurata, the only western town still under rebel control, remains under siege by regime soldiers.

Analysis:

The United States needs to "differentiate" among its interests to determine how and when to intervene in protests sweeping the region, and should engage assertively in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, says Middle East expert Edward P. Djerejian.

In the Washington Post, CFR's Meghan O'Sullivan asks if Libya will become Obama's Iraq.

In the National Review Online, Brett Schaefer discusses the complications of multilateralism in the context of the Libyan conflict.

Background:

Read President Obama's speech on Libya on March 28, 2011.

The UN Security Council resolution regarding Libya was passed on March 17, 2011.

MIDDLE EAST: Live Fire Kills Protestors in South Yemen

At least twelve anti-government protestors were killed by security forces in the city of Taiz (al-Jazeera) following the demonstrations of thousands of activists in the city square.

Syria: Hundreds of mourners attended the funerals for eight protestors killed in Friday's violence in Douma. Meanwhile, President Bashar al-Assad (WashPost) asked a former cabinet minister to form a new government in what experts say is a gesture of reform.

PACIFIC RIM: Japan to Dump Radioactive Water

Japanese officials said they will release some 11,500 tons of water contaminated with low levels of radiation into the sea water off the Fukushima nuclear plant (NYT). The measure is needed to prevent the water from flooding generators that are cooling two of the plant's six reactors.

As Japan struggles to control problems at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, it also must grapple with questions about nuclear power in the face of immediate and long-term energy needs.

China: The whereabouts of China's most prominent artist, Ai Weiwei (Guardian), are unknown following his detention by authorities over the weekend. Ai's wife and assistant, who were also detained, were released late Sunday night.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Suicide Attacks Kill Dozens in Pakistan

Two suicide bombers killed at least forty people at a sufi shrine (CBS) in Pakistan's Punjab province. Investigators are focusing the investigation on Taliban militants.

Pakistan's stability is of great consequence to regional and international security. Examine the roots of its challenges, what it means for the region and the world, and explore some plausible futures for the country in CFR's Crisis Guide: Pakistan.

Afghanistan: In northern Afghanistan, two NATO soldiers (AP) were killed by a man wearing the uniform of Afghan border police. Authorities are unsure whether the attack was by a disguised insurgent or a turncoat member of the police.

AFRICA: Ouattara Forces Await Final Assault

Forces loyal to UN-recognized president of Ivory Coast (Reuters), Alassane Ouattara, await a final assault on the city of Abidjan in an effort to oust his rival, Laurent Gbagbo. Gbagbo troops have been able to hold on to positions around the presidential palace.

Conflict in Ivory Coast appears to be nearing a head, with Ouattara poised to triumph. But CFR's Jendayi Frazer notes that inaction by the Security Council is "hypocrisy," particularly in light of its stance on Libya.

AMERICAS: Obama Announces Reelection Run

Via video and email to supporters, U.S. President Barack Obama announced his intention to run for a second term of office (BBC). The move was widely anticipated, and his campaign staff is set to file election papers this week.

United States: Republican lawmakers are set to announce a 2012 budget proposal that will slash $4 trillion (WSJ) from projected federal spending over the next ten years. Observers say the move will significantly shift the budget debate on Capitol Hill.

EUROPE: ECB's Rate Hike Criticized

International economists criticized the European Central Bank's expected interest rate hike (FT) as "premature," given the lingering eurozone debt crisis. Since late 2008, the ECB has met all of the eurozone banks' liquidity demands--a policy that will continue until at least July even as interest rates rise.

Romania: The Romanian Intelligence Service and Harvard University's Black Sea Security Program (AP) will meet to discuss how to improve security in the Black Sea region. Officials from the United States and twelve other nations are attending the conference.

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