Selasa, 15 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 15, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Nuclear Crisis Widens in Japan
- Iran Condemns Saudi Troops in Bahrain
- China Currency Not on G20 Agenda
- Pakistan Delays Davis Immunity Decision

Top of the Agenda: Nuclear Crisis Widens in Japan

Japan's nuclear crisis (NYT) drifted toward catastrophe on Tuesday following an explosion at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant that damaged the core in one reactor, and a fire in another that ejected large amounts of radioactive material into the atmosphere. In statements to the press, Prime Minister Naoto Kan urged calm, but cautioned "a very high risk" of further leakage. The blast is the third in four days at the plant, and appears to have damaged the reactor's containment system (BBC) for the first time. Japanese officials claim that radiation readings (CNN) outside the plant had spiked, but have returned to level not harmful to humans.

Japan's Nikkei stock average (FT) closed down 10.6 percent on Tuesday. A sixth of the market's value has been erased in just two trading days since the earthquake. In response to the Japanese crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel (DeutscheWelle) announced Berlin will shut down all seven of its nuclear power plants that began operation before 1980.

Analysis:

U.S. nuclear power faces renewed scrutiny amid Japan's crisis, but it is far too early to gauge the damage suffered by Japan's industry and the effect on U.S. atomic energy's future, says CFR's Michael Levi.

This editorial for Japan Times examines the nuclear crisis and suggests that the Japanese government and power industry "failed to implement necessary safeguards" and recommends a full review of the country's nuclear generation policy.

Multimedia:

This CFR interactive guide explores the past, present, and future of nuclear power, focusing on its unique benefits and risks.

This interactive map from the Financial Times shows the areas of greatest devastation and the locations of Japan's key energy infrastructure.

This interactive feature from the New York Times demonstrates how a reactor shuts down and what happens in a meltdown.

MIDDLE EAST: Iran Condemns Saudi Troops in Bahrain

Iranian officials denounced the move by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to send fifteen hundred troops into Bahrain (BBC), claiming the decision is "unacceptable and will further complicate the issue." The Shiite-led opposition said the unprecedented deployment of outside military assistance amounted to a "declaration of war."

The Saudis are tense about protests in the neighboring monarchy of Bahrain and U.S. support for the recent revolutionary wave in the Middle East, says Saudi expert Rachel Bronson.

Libya: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (Bloomberg) met with Libyan opposition official Mahmood Jibril in Paris. The opposition urged the United States to bomb the regime's airfields and requested weapons and political and economic aid. Clinton agreed to provide assistance beyond humanitarian aid, but gave no details.

On his CFR blog The Water's Edge, James M. Lindsay asks, "do Americans want Obama to do more on Libya?"

PACIFIC RIM: China Currency Not on G20 Agenda

According to Chinese officials, the exchange rate for Chinese yuan (ABC) will not be part of the G20 negotiations on March 31 in Nanjing. Beijing faces pressure from its trading partners to let the yuan rise in an effort to correct trade imbalances that favor Chinese exports.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Delays Davis Immunity Decision

Pakistan's Punjab High Court decided to leave the ruling of whether or not Raymond Davis (NYT), the U.S. suspect charged with double homicide, will be granted diplomatic immunity to the trial court in the murder case, which may begin on Wednesday.

Increasing distrust between the CIA and Pakistan's ISI over the Raymond Davis case could threaten efforts to fight militancy along the Afghan border. Experts Daniel Markey and Shuja Nawaz discuss policy options to restore the relationship.

India: Japan's nuclear crisis brought renewed protest to India's proposed Jaitapur station (AFP) in the state of Maharashtra, which would be one of the largest nuclear plants in the world. French company Areva is in contract to supply the first two reactors, with the plant scheduled to begin operation in 2018.

AFRICA: Pro-Ouattara on Offensive in Abidjan

Fighters loyal to Ivory Coast's President-elect Alassane Ouattara launched attacks on forces of Laurent Gbagbo in the capital of Abidjan (WSJ). Analysts say the offensive marks a new phase in the post-election violence that has rocked the country.

Niger: Mahamadou Issoufou, the candidate from the Social Democratic Party, won the presidential run-off in Niger (RFI) with nearly 60 percent of the vote. He says he plans to return the nation to civilian rule following a military coup in February 2010 of last year.

AMERICAS: NASDAQ to Bid on NYSE Euronext

According to U.S. media reports, NASDAQ is approaching a $12 billion bid for NYSE Euronext (BBC). The deal would contend with a $10.2 billion agreement between NYSE and Deutsche Boerse made in February.

United States: General David Petraeus is set to appear before Congress to discuss progress on the war in Afghanistan (LATimes). He is likely to face negative appraisals of the war, including pessimistic reviews from the intelligence community.

EUROPE: EU Reaches Deal on Economic Fixes

EU governments agreed on a package of legislation designed to improve budget-making policies, toughen sanctions for countries that don't follow budget rules, and create a system for preventing macroeconomic imbalances (WSJ). However, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said the changes are still inadequate.

UK: Tickets for the London 2012 Olympics (DeutscheWelle) went on sale five-hundred days before the start of the Games. Organizers expect demand to be high for the 6.6 million tickets, so they are being allotted via lottery.

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