Kamis, 24 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 24, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Qaddafi Presses Ground War
- Protestors Shot in Syrian Crackdown
- Countries Ban Japanese Food Imports
- Portugal to Dominate EU Summit

Top of the Agenda: Qaddafi Presses Ground War

Ground forces loyal to the Qaddafi regime pressed on with their assault on key Libyan cities (BBC) despite a fifth night of coalition airstrikes. Pitched battles continued in and around the city of Misurata, east of Tripoli, and the strategic town of Ajdabiya. Allied strikes forced the retreat of Qaddafi tanks from Misurata, only to have them resume their offensive hours later under cover of darkness. Al-Jazeera also reports regime forces marshalling assets near the rebel-held town of Zintan.

Having eliminated Libyan air defenses (NYT), U.S. military officials say the campaign has entered a second phase that will focus on decimating Qaddafi ground forces. Coalition air strikes also increased over Tripoli (WSJ), with warplanes targeting fuel depots and local military installations. Military command of coalition forces remains divided, with the United States maintaining leadership and coordinating separately with various militaries. NATO is expected to resume talks on Thursday to clarify the command structure. Members led by the United States and the UK favor NATO leadership of the coalition (FT), while France and Turkey have voiced opposition.

Analysis:

The U.S. and European allies face increasing questions about the extent of their air bombardment of the Libyan regime's forces, as broader regional unrest, especially in Yemen, also poses troubles for policymakers.

In the New York Times, Nicholas Kristof writes on the merits of military intervention in Libya, claiming it is worth preventing some massacres "even if we can't intervene every time."

In this op-ed for Politico, CFR President Richard N. Haass writes that the United States has now embarked on its third war of choice in less than a decade. And like the 2003 Iraq war and the Afghan war after 2009, this war is ill-advised.

Background:

The UN Security Council resolution regarding Libya was passed on March 17, 2011.

Multimedia:

In this CFR podcast, Peter Ackerman, an expert on civil resistance movements, says nonviolent revolutions that have a shared vision of future governance are more likely to be successful than those that turn violent, such as Libya's.

As allied forces resumed airstrikes on Wednesday against Libyan government targets in Misurata, rebels and government forces battled in Ajdabiya. View these images from the Wall Street Journal.

MIDDLE EAST: Protestors Shot in Syrian Crackdown

In the southern city of Daraa, at least ten are dead and dozens more wounded when Syrian security forces (BBC) fired on protestors attending the funeral of anti-government activists.

On his CFR blog From the Potomac to the Euphrates, Steven A. Cook examines the potential for revolutionary unrest in the Assad regime.

Yemen: President Ali Abdullah Saleh offered to hold a referendum on the constitution, as well as parliamentary and presidential elections, before the end of the year, in a new round of concessions to protestors (al-Jazeera). Opposition groups say they will examine the proposal.

Israel: Israeli planes pounded targets in the Gaza Strip (Haaretz) on Thursday following continued rocket and mortar attacks on southern Israel. Hamas leadership in Gaza claims the strikes targeted smuggling tunnels along the border with Egypt.

PACIFIC RIM: Countries Ban Japanese Food Imports

Fears of food tainted with unsafe levels of radiation (WSJ) prompted an increasing number of countries, including the United States, to ban the import of food from four Japanese provinces. Experts say the effect on Japan's overall trade should be negligible.

On her CFR blog Asia Unbound, Sheila Smith discusses Operation Tomodachi, the U.S. military's humanitarian and disaster relief efforts in Japan.

China: The price of rare-earth metals (Reuters) broke the $100,000 per ton mark for the first time last month, up nearly nine-fold from the prior year. Analysts claim the rise is due to a squeeze instituted by China, the primary source of the world supply.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: U.S. Soldier Pleads Guilty to Murder

Specialist Jeremy Morlock pled guilty to three counts of murder and was sentenced to twenty-four years in prison by a military court martial. As part of his plea agreement, Morlock is set to testify against four other soldiers implicated in the killing of civilians (CNN) in Kandahar last year.

Bangladesh: The Bangladeshi government's campaign to remove Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus (FT) from the renowned micro-lending bank he founded threatens to derail the country's emerging economic growth, according to analysts.

AFRICA: Thousands Displaced on Somalia-Kenya Border

Following days of violent clashes between al-Shabaab militants (Guardian) and Somali federal forces, thousands of refugees remain stranded without food or water in the border regions of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia, according to international aid workers.

Examine significant events in the region through this CFR interactive map of the Horn of Africa.

AMERICAS: Control Tower at DC Airport Goes Silent

Two commercial airliners were forced to land at Reagan Airport in Washington, DC, without the guidance of the radio control tower (WashPost), which is staffed by a single controller between midnight and 6 a.m. The FAA will investigate the incident.

Canada: The government of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Bloomberg) will face a no-confidence vote March 25 following organized Liberal opposition to his proposed budget. Experts say opposition lawmakers will try to exploit the alleged ethics violations by Harper's administration.

EUROPE: Portugal to Dominate EU Summit

The resignation of Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates, following the rejection of his government's austerity package, is likely to dominate the EU economic summit. Despite national opposition, analysts expect Portugal to seek a bailout (Reuters) in the coming weeks.

Brussels: Ahead of its summit, the EU was hit by a "serious" cyber attack (BBC) targeting the Commission and External Action Service. As a preventative measure, the European Commission shut down email and Intranet access, and is launching an investigation into the breach.

Foreign governments, non-state actors, and criminal networks are targeting the digital networks of the United States with increasing frequency and sophistication. This CFR backgrounder examines U.S. cybersecurity policy and the threat environment.

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