Rabu, 23 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 23, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Allies Struggle to Unify over Libya
- Six Dead in Syrian Mosque Raid
- Tokyo Water Deemed Unsafe for Infants
- Portugal Flirts with Financial Bailout

Top of the Agenda: Allies Struggle to Unify over Libya

As the international military campaign against Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime entered its fifth day, U.S. President Barack Obama and leaders from Britain and France worked toward an agreement that would clarify command over joint military operations (NYT). Obama reiterated the U.S. desire to relinquish its leading role "within days." Analysts suggest NATO is likely to take over "command and control" responsibilities, but in a subsidiary role under separate leadership. Speaking in Tripoli in his first outing since air strikes began, Qaddafi (Guardian) remained defiant and vowed not to surrender. In the past twenty-four hours, Qaddafi forces continued their daily assaults on the towns of Misurata, Ajdabiya, and Zintan despite the no-fly zone. Coalition strikes and anti-aircraft fire were heard around Tripoli (al-Jazeera) for a fourth straight night.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (ABC) suggested people close to the Qaddafi regime are "exploring" exit options, and said one of Qaddafi's sons has been killed. Analysts suggest allies have yet to address the potential scenario of a long military standoff, where Libyan civilians are protected, but Qaddafi remains in power (WSJ).

Analysis:

In this op-ed for Politico, CFR President Richard N. Haass writes that the United States has now embarked on its third war of choice in less than a decade. And like the 2003 Iraq war and the Afghan war after 2009, this war is ill-advised.

This blog from the Economist examines what "success" might look like in Libya.

In the New York Times, CFR's Max Boot discusses the problems in a post-Qaddafi Libya.

Background:

The UN Security Council resolution regarding Libya was passed on March 17, 2011.

Multimedia:

In this series of video interviews from the New York Times, more than two dozen people under thirty, from Libya to the West Bank, talk about their generation's moment in history and prospects for the future.

MIDDLE EAST: Six Dead in Syrian Mosque Raid

In the southern city of Daraa, Syrian security forces stormed a mosque (al-Jazeera) known for anti-government protests, killing at least six people. Reform activists pushing for political freedoms had said they would remain in the mosque until their demands were met.

Yemen: Yemen's parliament endorsed a request from President Ali Abdullah Saleh to impose emergency law (AP) for thirty days. The ruling suspends the constitution, bans protests, gives security forces authority to detain and arrest, and tightens media censorship.

This CFR issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa.

Israel: Vice Premier Silvan Shalom said Israel may begin a fresh military offensive on the Gaza Strip (Haaretz) following days of rocket and mortar fire on the western Negev. Officials have compared the situation to the run-up to Israel's 2008-2009 Gaza war.

PACIFIC RIM: Tokyo Water Deemed Unsafe for Infants

Japanese authorities cautioned that very young children in Tokyo should avoid drinking tap water after it was found to have twice the safe level of radioactive iodine (Guardian). Officials said the situation did not pose any immediate threat to the adult population.

This interview with defense expert Seth Cropsey examines the legacy of the U.S. Navy's humanitarian role in recent years, including its current mission in Japan.

Australia: Hundreds of protestors gathered across Australia to denounce the Labor government's proposed carbon tax (BBC). Activists claim that without a globalized agreement, the tax will cost jobs and threaten the competitiveness of Australia businesses.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: U.S. Soldier Faces Murder Trial

A court martial for Specialist Jeremy Morlock, including three counts of murder, is set to begin at a U.S. military base in Washington state. Morlock is one of two soldiers to face trial in the deaths of Afghan civilians (CNN) in 2010.

Afghan security forces will start taking over some areas from NATO in July, but questions persist about the competence of those forces. Analysts say an effective transition requires emphasis on political reforms and anti-corruption measures.

India: Amid a pall of corruption, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is trying to put his administration's legislative agenda back on course by introducing legislation to provide tax and banking reforms (FT) welcomed by the business community.

AFRICA: Gbagbo Threatens Foreign Media

Disputed Ivory Coast President Laurent Gbagbo (AP) warned international journalists that if they failed to be more "balanced" in their coverage of the political crisis, they would be treated "as accomplices to terrorists." Four hundred and thirty-five people have died since the violence began, and nearly four hundred thousand refugees have fled the fighting.

AMERICAS: Obama Pledges Millions to Combat Drug Trade

Speaking in El Salvador, the final stop of his visit to Latin America, President Obama pledged $200 million to help fight drug trafficking (AP).

Cuba: Fidel Castro (MiamiHerald) said he resigned his leadership of the Communist Party when he fell ill five years ago. Analysts claim the move signals that Castro's brother Raul will retain a firm hold on power heading into the Party congress next month.

EUROPE: Portugal Flirts with Financial Bailout

Portuguese lawmakers are set to vote on austerity measures (WSJ) needed to slash the budget deficit and regain investor confidence. Main opposition parties have vowed to vote against the legislation, which would push the country closer to a bailout and a political reshuffling if Prime Minister José Socrates steps down as a result.

Sweden: In the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, plans for the world's first final storage site for radioactive waste (DeutscheWelle) in Forsmark, Sweden, faces increasing opposition. If the site is approved, it could begin construction by 2013 and start receiving waste by 2020.

In this op-ed for Slate, CFR's Michael A. Levi examines the potential consequences for the United States should lawmakers "backpedal" on nuclear power.

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