Senin, 21 Maret 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

March 21, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Allies Intensify Air Attacks on Qaddafi
- Yemeni Army Officials Back Uprising
- Progress Slow at Fukushima Plant
- Obama Stresses Human Rights, Democracy in Brazil

Allies Intensify Air Attacks on Qaddafi

The United States and its allies stepped up air attacks on forces loyal to Colonel Muammar al-Qaddafi (WSJ), preventing anti-regime rebels from being overrun in the short term. Jets and missiles from coalition militaries struck Libyan targets over the weekend, including air defenses and armored units heading to attack the rebel stronghold of Benghazi. Allied spokesman U.S. Vice Admiral Gortney said the coalition acting against Qaddafi, which originally included Britain, France, Italy, Canada, and the United States, had broadened to include Belgium and Qatar (al-Jazeera). The United States, UK, and France are continuing strikes pursuant to the UN Security Council authorization (BBC) to protect Libyan civilians from government forces, including a no-fly zone. U.S. officials say Qaddafi himself is not a target, however a missile strike has apparently destroyed one of his command centers in Tripoli.

Emboldened rebel fighters tried to retake the strategically important town of Ajdabiya, but were repelled by armored pro-Qaddafi forces. Coalition forces said they were continuing operations despite the Libyan announcement on Sunday night of a second ceasefire (NYT). British Foreign Secretary William Hague said Qaddafi would be judged by his actions, not his words. Oil prices (FT) increased sharply on Monday as traders feared the conflict will keep Libya's oil from the market.

Analysis:

With the United States now militarily engaged in Libya and U.S. allies seemingly at odds over goals, it is imperative that President Obama more clearly define the nation's objectives and the means to achieve them, says CFR's Robert Danin.

In this article for ForeignPolicy.com, Josh Rogin examines how Obama made the sudden decision to engage militarily in Libya.

Background:

This UN Security Council resolution regarding Libya was passed on March 17, 2011.

Multimedia:

This interactive map from the New York Times highlights how the rebellion is unfolding across Libya in a day-to-day breakdown.

In this video from CNN, security analyst Peter Bergen discusses why Libya is not Iraq in 2003.

MIDDLE EAST: Yemeni Army Officials Back Uprising

Three top military officials declared their support for Yemen's uprising and deployed tank units to protect anti-regime protestors (al-Jazeera) in the capital of Sanaa. The move comes days after armed men fired at an anti-government protest, killing at least fifty-two.

Syria: Activists set fire to government headquarters and other buildings in the southern city of Dara'a, continuing protests for a third day (NYT). Security forces shot live ammunition into the crowds, killing at least one and wounding many others.

PACIFIC RIM: Progress Slow at Fukushima Plant

Japanese engineers restored electricity to three reactors at Japan's stricken nuclear plant (BBC), but the cooling systems are not yet operable, and the situation remains very serious, according to the IAEA. Some workers at the facility were evacuated temporarily after smoke was seen billowing from reactor three.

Japan bears only some resemblance to the Asian countries ravaged by the 2004 tsunami, but their recovery experiences could provide valuable insights to leaders in Tokyo, writes CFR's Joshua Kurlantzick.

China: Google accused the Chinese government of interfering with its email service inside the country. Analysts say the announcement further complicates the U.S. company's attempt to push into the world's largest Internet market (FT).

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Mine Explosions Trap Dozens

Three powerful mine blasts in Pakistan's Baluchistan province killed at least ten and trapped forty-two others. Officials say rescue workers have begun a massive operation to recover the trapped miners (Dawn), but say survival is slim due to methane gas.

Afghanistan: U.S. commanders are preparing for a public backlash after photographs were published of a rogue U.S. tank unit (Guardian) posing with the dead bodies of Afghan civilians they killed. NATO officials have compared the images to those of soldiers abusing prisoners in Iraq's Abu Ghraib.

AFRICA: Ouattara Urges UN Action

Internationally recognized President Alassane Ouattara called on the UN to do more to protect civilians caught in political violence. He claims he cannot govern, and that Laurent Gbagbo is trying to trap him into fighting a civil war (AFP).

On his CFR blog Africa in Transition, John Campbell highlights some of the important events across the Africa.

AMERICAS: Obama Stresses Human Rights, Democracy in Brazil

President Obama stressed human rights and democracy in a speech on his last day in Brazil (WashPost). The president will speak in Chile today and wrap up his Latin American visit in El Salvador on Wednesday.

Obama's trip to Brazil provides an opportunity for the two countries to reestablish their relationship, setting the stage for future agreements on trade, infrastructure, and foreign policy, says expert Matias Spektor.

Mexico: U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Carlos Pascual resigned over the weekend due to a WikiLeaks cable (CBS) where he questions Mexico's ability to fight against powerful drug cartels. Mexican President Felipe Calderon had called for Pascual's ouster.

EUROPE: Sarkozy Setback in French Elections

French President Nicolas Sarkozy's ruling UMP party suffered setbacks in local elections, where far-right and left-leaning groups gained ground. Analysts say the cantonal elections (RFI) are a test of each party's strength ahead of next year's presidential elections.

Germany: Deutsche Telekom will sell T-Mobile USA to AT&T (MarketWatch) in a deal that will create the largest U.S. wireless operator by subscribers. The agreement outlines a cash-and-stock deal worth about $39 billion.

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