February 24, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Qaddafi Marshals Forces in Tripoli - Yemen President Protects Protestors - Obama Strikes at Defense of Marriage Act - Assange to be Extradited to Sweden Top of the Agenda: Qaddafi Marshals Forces in Tripoli As revolutionaries consolidated their gains in the surrounding countryside, forces loyal to Libyan autocrat Muammar al-Qaddafi congregated in the capital of Tripoli (NYT) and launched fresh attacks on neighboring contested cities like Zawiya and Sabratha. The Financial Times reports Qaddafi has "lost control of the vast majority of his country's Mediterranean coast." Thousands of foreigners have fled the country as the United States, China, and European nations have sent in emergency evacuation transport (BBC). In a speech on Wednesday evening, President Barack Obama demanded an end to the violence and announced he will dispatch Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and top diplomat Bill Burns to Europe to discuss the mounting bloodshed. Oil prices (Reuters) continued their rise as a result of the Libyan chaos, with U.S. crude futures soaring nearly $3 a barrel to $101. Analysis: In this article for the Financial Times, CFR's Michael Levi argues that ongoing oil market turmoil warrants a long-term strategy for energy policy, including strategic reserves, coordination of emergency measures with emerging markets, and possible curbs on market speculation during extraordinary geopolitical stress. As protests in Libya intensified between rebels and forces loyal to Qaddafi, this rebellion continued to be the bloodiest of the uprisings that have swept across the Arab world in recent weeks. CFR's Elliott Abrams discusses Libya's future and the implications of the unrest for U.S. policy in the region. It's unclear whether Qaddafi's regime will survive after a failed, but brutal, crackdown on protesters in Libya. But if Qaddafi goes, CFR's Robert Danin says Libya lacks the elements needed for a smooth and peaceful transition of power. Multimedia: In this podcast from the Economist, the University of Exeter's Tim Niblock explains the historical background to the crisis in Libya and what the future might hold. This video from al-Jazeera English discusses how an intricate tribal structure plays a crucial role in both Libyan politics and the current pro-democracy opposition. MIDDLE EAST: Yemen President Protects Protestors Following recent violence that left at least fifteen dead, President Ali Abdullah Saleh ordered national security forces to defend demonstrators (al-Jazeera) calling for his ouster. While refusing to quit immediately, Saleh vowed not run for reelection at the end of his term in 2013. Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned would-be attackers against testing Israel's "determination" after the Israeli Air Force bombed (Haaretz) eastern Gaza City in retaliation for two terrorist rocket attacks on the southern city of Be'er Sheva. This CFR interactive presents an in-depth look at the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and its geopolitical repercussions. PACIFIC RIM: Fleeting Hope for Hundreds Missing in NZ Quake Close to three hundred people remain unaccounted for after Tuesday's massive earthquake in Christchurch (SMH). Officials put the death toll at ninety-eight, but fear it will rise in the coming days. North Korea: International charity workers report that North Korea may be on the brink of significant food shortages (BBC), sparking memories of a 1990s famine that killed as many as two million. Some nations have suspended food aid to Pyongyang to protest the lack of denuclearization. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India Inflation Sparks Protests Tens of thousands of workers demonstrated in New Delhi against the country's inflation (FT), the highest of any major Asian economy. The opposition march increases political pressure on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, whose administration has endured a wave of corruption scandals. Pakistan: AP reports that Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, is prepared to sever ties with the CIA over the Raymond Davis fiasco, an American contractor accused of double homicide. Analysts say the decision could "seriously damage" the U.S. war effort in Afghanistan. Washington is engaged in direct talks with the Taliban in an effort to end violence in Afghanistan, says Steve Coll. But successful negotiations should seek Afghan national unity and regional diplomacy, he says. AFRICA: Forces Clash in Mogadishu Violence between the African Union-backed Somali army and al-Shabaab militants broke out in the capital of Mogadishu (ShabelleMedia), as AU troops launched an offensive on the defense ministry where the Islamic militant group is based. AMERICAS: Obama Strikes at Defense of Marriage Act President Barack Obama directed the U.S. Justice Department not to uphold the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act (NYT), which bans federal recognition of same-sex marriage. The decision marks a full reversal of the administration's policy during its first two years. Mexico: Mexican defense officials said that last week's murder of a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent was a case of mistaken identity by drug assassins (WSJ). EUROPE: Assange to be Extradited to Sweden A British court ordered WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange (Guardian) to be extradited to Sweden where he will face allegations of rape and sexual assault. Assange will be extradited in ten days unless an appeal goes through. The U.S. State Department will likely push for Assange to be prosecuted under all available statutes, including the Espionage Act, says CFR's John Bellinger, who notes the releases harmed sources and foreign relations. Russia: The Russian Defense Ministry announced an ambitious weapons procurement program totaling 650 billion U.S. dollars over the next decade. The rearmament plan (RIANovosti) includes the purchase of one hundred ships, over six hundred aircraft, a thousand helicopters, and ten new air defense systems. EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook. Privacy Policy The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties. 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