Rabu, 23 Februari 2011

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From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 23, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Qaddafi Defiant Amid Rising Protests
- Saudi King Abdullah Declares New Benefits
- Union Fights Spread in Midwest
- Greeks Protest Austerity Measures

Top of the Agenda: Qaddafi Defiant Amid Rising Protests

Amid mass protests demanding his resignation, Libyan autocrat Muammar al-Qaddafi clung to power as his governmental power structure eroded around him. As international isolation mounts, observers suggest the Libyan state apparatus (al-Jazeera) is facing collapse as officials abandon the government. Qaddafi held his grip on the capital of Tripoli on Wednesday, but large areas of the country's east remain out of his control. Protestors backed by defecting army units (BBC) are thought to have almost the entire eastern half of Libya under their control. Some observers place the death toll from the political unrest at close to a thousand. In a televised speech, Qaddafi vowed to track down and kill protesters (NYT)--who he called cockroaches--"house by house." However, there is little evidence that pro-regime supporters heeded his call. French President Nicolas Sarkozy became the first international leader to call for sanctions (FT) to be imposed on Libya. Libya's turmoil had less of an impact on oil prices than on Tuesday when the price of crude hit a two-and-a-half-year high of $108.70.

Analysis:

It's unclear whether Muammar Qaddafi's regime will survive after a failed, but brutal, crackdown on protesters in Libya. But if Qaddafi goes, CFR's Robert Danin says Libya lacks the elements needed for a smooth and peaceful transition of power.

In this article for the National Review, CFR's Elliott Abrams discusses how the bloody violence being used by the Qaddafi regime is the harbinger of its collapse.

This issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa.

Multimedia:

This interactive map from the Economist provides a statistical hub containing key data from all the countries of the Arab League.

MIDDLE EAST: Saudi King Abdullah Declares New Benefits

In an effort to counteract high inflation and help unemployed youth, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah (al-Jazeera) announced a series of benefits for citizens amounting to just over $10 billion.

Yemen: According to medical workers, two protesters were killed Tuesday night outside Sanaa University in Yemen's capital (WSJ), the first deaths in a week of peaceful demonstrations. Protestors said the gunmen were pro-government supporters.

Bahrain's security forces are loyal to the Sunni regime, which means the unrest isn't likely to lead to collapse, says expert F. Gregory Gause III. Still, the protests pose a dilemma for the United States, which has chided the government but views Bahrain as an ally.

Large numbers of unemployed youth have been behind the protests for change in the Middle East. Demographics expert Ragui Assaad says the region must move toward democracy and open economic systems to turn the youth bulge into an opportunity.

PACIFIC RIM: Nations to Arbitrate Thai-Cambodian Dispute

In an effort to prevent armed conflict, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will send mediators to assist both sides in the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia (CNN). The two countries have been in a stand-off over a nine hundred-year-old temple since 2008.

New Zealand: Police in Christchurch (FT) expect the death toll from Tuesday's earthquake to double, warning that it is unlikely that many people inside the collapsed buildings would be pulled out alive. The quake is the country's worst natural disaster since 1931.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Thousands March in Delhi over Food Prices

Thousands of demonstrators gathered in Indian capital Delhi to march in a rally protesting rising food prices (BBC) and unemployment. Food inflation has been consistently mounting in India, raising household budgets.

This International Food Policy Research Institute report analyzes how the global food crisis happened and recommends how the next one can be prevented.

AFRICA: Post-Election Violence Continues in Ivory Coast

According to advisors of Ivory Coast's internationally recognized president, Alassane Ouattara, soldiers ambushed and killed forces loyal to incumbent president Laurent Gbagbo in the capital of Abidjan (AP). Gbagbo refuses to relinquish power after losing November's presidential election.

AMERICAS: Union Fights Spread in Midwest

Protests that began in Wisconsin over state legislation that would weaken unions spread to the capitals of Indiana and Ohio. Labor experts say the bills amount to the largest assault on collective bargaining (NYT) in recent memory.

Mexico: According to Mexico's National Human Rights Commission, at least 11,333 migrants were kidnapped in Mexico during a six-month span in 2010. The commission says Mexican drug cartels (CanadianPress) took many of the migrants to extort money from their relatives or recruit them to work for gangs.

EUROPE: Greeks Protest Austerity Measures

In a fight against the government's unpopular austerity policies, thousands of Greek protestors embarked on a twenty-four hour general strike in Athens (DeutscheWelle).

Switzerland: Swiss banks lodged dozens of reports of possible money laundering (WSJ) by members of former Tunisian president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali's regime--however all came after the Swiss government froze Ben Ali's assets.

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