February 22, 2011 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Qaddafi Clings to Power amid Growing Unrest - Bahrain Monarchy Seeks Dialogue - Davis's CIA Link Won't Affect Trial - Cameron: Democracy over Stability Top of the Agenda: Qaddafi Clings to Power amid Growing Unrest Forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi are waging a violent battle to keep him in power. As demonstrations enter the second week, al-Jazeera reports that almost three hundred people have been killed across the country in the unrest seeking to oust the Arab region's longest serving autocrat (al-Jazeera). Violent clashes were reported in the capital of Tripoli and other cities, and some observers claim warplanes have been used to "bomb" protestors. According to witnesses, forces loyal to the regime and hired mercenaries (NYT) patrolled the capital and targeted protestors freely. Qaddafi appeared briefly on television (FT) early Tuesday morning to stress that he was still in the country and had not fled as some reports had suggested. Some international observers fear he will employ mass killings to subdue the population. Oil prices surged 7 percent on Tuesday amid fears the crisis in Libya could spread to other oil-producing countries (CNN) in the region, particularly Saudi Arabia. The UN Security Council is scheduled to discuss the violence in a closed session on Tuesday. Libya's deputy ambassador to the UN has requested international intervention (Guardian), suggesting a no-fly zone over the country in order to prevent "a real genocide." Analysis: In this article for the National Review, CFR's Elliott Abrams discusses how the bloody violence being used by the Qaddafi regime is the harbinger of its collapse. Large numbers of unemployed youth have been behind the protests for change in the Middle East. Demographics expert Ragui Assaad says the region must move toward democracy and open economic systems to turn the youth bulge into an opportunity. Multimedia: This interactive map from the Economist provides a statistical hub containing key data from all the countries of the Arab League. In this CFR podcast, the Washington bureau chief for al-Jazeera Arabic, Abderrahim Foukara, suggests Western perceptions of the channel are adapting to its pervasive influence in the Arab and Muslim world. MIDDLE EAST: Bahrain Monarchy Seeks Dialogue Bahrain's king ordered the release of several prisoners and closed cases against numerous Shiite leaders in an effort to encourage dialogue with the opposition movement. Despite the move, thousands of protestors thronged capital Manama's central square (CNN). Bahrain's security forces are loyal to the Sunni regime, which means the unrest isn't likely to lead to collapse, says expert F. Gregory Gause III. Still, the protests pose a dilemma for the United States, which has chided the government but views Bahrain as an ally. Yemen: At least five were injured when thousands of anti-government demonstrators clashed with loyalists of President Ali Abdullah Saleh in the capital of Sanaa (AFP). Thousands of pro-reform demonstrators also marched in the southern city of Aden. PACIFIC RIM: New Zealand Quake Kills Scores At least sixty-five people were killed in a 6.5 magnitude earthquake (NZHerald) that struck Christchurch, New Zealand. Rescue workers are still searching for hundreds who remain trapped under rubble. Japan: Moody's Investors Service reduced Japan's debt rating (Bloomberg) outlook from stable to negative. The judgment comes amid fears that political gridlock my impede the nation's ability to manage its deficit and rising debt. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Davis's CIA Link Not to Affect Trial Pakistani courts will decide the future of accused murderer and American citizen Raymond Davis (Reuters), despite his connection to the CIA and U.S. claims of diplomatic immunity. U.S.-Pakistan tensions over Davis point to the challenges of balancing a long-term partnership with short-term priorities. Analysts say Washington should focus on opening trade and other strategies that help Pakistanis. India: A special court found thirty-one people guilty of setting fire to a train in the town of Godhra, an incident that killed almost sixty people in 2002. Many of the victims were Hindu activists (WSJ) coming back from a pilgrimage to the town of Ayodhya. AFRICA: Dozens Killed in Mali Stampede At least thirty-six people were trampled to death and dozens more injured following a speech given by a prominent imam in Mali at Modibo Keita stadium (CNN). AMERICAS: Government Shutdown Looms in Budget Battle Top Senate Democrat Charles Schumer criticized Republican leaders for raising the threat of a possible government shutdown (Reuters) as a potential outcome in the ongoing budget battle. Lawmakers must reach a budget compromise before March 4. The White House's proposed budget for FY2012 tries to balance spending cuts with investment to boost competitiveness. CFR experts examine how well it handles deficit reduction, defense, foreign aid, and spurring innovation. Venezuela: Venezuelan officials condemned comments made by UK Foreign Secretary William Hague as "irresponsible," after Hague stated that he had unconfirmed information suggesting that Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi (BBC) was heading to Venezuela. EUROPE: Cameron: Democracy over Stability In a speech to the Kuwait national assembly, Prime Minister David Cameron conceded the UK was wrong for supporting autocratic regimes in the name of British strategic interest. The Guardian reported that Cameron chose Kuwait because Britain believes the Gulf state represents a strong example of democracy in the region. Turkey: The Turkish government rushed to evacuate its citizens from the violent unrest erupting in Libya. Three ships were expected to arrive in hard-hit Benghazi to pick up roughly three thousand stranded Turks (AP). EXPLORE CFR's WEBSITE:     Regions      Issues      Experts     Publications     About CFR Find CFR on Twitter and Facebook. Privacy Policy The Council on Foreign Relations does not share email addresses with third parties. Council on Foreign Relations 58 East 68th Street New York, NY 10065 Tel. +1 212.434.9400 Fax: +1 212.434.9800 Learn about this and other newsletters offered by the Council on Foreign Relations. To pause your subscription, to switch between HTML and text-only versions of the newsletter, to change your email address, or to unsubscribe, click here.

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