Kamis, 10 Februari 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 10, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Protests Expand with Egypt Labor Unions
- Iran Opposition Leader Under House Arrest
- India, Pakistan Agree to Resume Peace Talks
- Pentagon Will Not Support Contractor Mergers

Top of the Agenda: Protests Expand with Egypt Labor Unions

Thousands of Egyptian workers--including lawyers, doctors, and transit workers--held nationwide strikes (al-Jazeera) for a second day, increasing the momentum of pro-democracy demonstrations demanding the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. Egypt's foreign minister rejected U.S. demands to abandon its emergency laws allowing for the arbitrary detention of citizens (BBC), and said the U.S. should not try to "impose" its will. He also stated that the army would "intervene to control the country" if events unraveled into chaos (NYT). Until now, the military has vowed not to use force against the protestors, however, it has deployed tanks and reinforcements across Cairo and controlled access points to Tahrir Square. Egypt's largest parliamentary opposition group, the Tagammu Party, announced it will pull out of reform talks with the Mubarak administration due to a lack of concessions (Haaretz). In statements to the media, Vice President Omar Suleiman reiterated that Mubarak will not resign, urged the opposition to compromise, and said the alternative was a "coup" (WSJ).

The protracted protests raised concerns that the Suez Canal--a major oil transport channel--might be closed and send oil prices skyrocketing (CNN). However, Egypt's finance minister said the government will "do its utmost best" to guarantee it remains open.

Analysis:

As Egypt's opposition movement urges new protests, the Egyptian army has emerged as a key player in questions about a replacement government for Mubarak, says expert Bruce K. Rutherford.

In Foreign Policy, Hugh Miles examines "The al-Jazeera Effect"--the inside story of Egypt's TV wars and how Saudi Arabia could be next.

This issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa.

Background:

The anti-government protests in Egypt will likely mean a greater political role for the Muslim Brotherhood, analysts say. But this Backgrounder notes the divide in views over whether the Islamist group will choose a path of moderation or extremism.

This CFR Contingency Planning Memo discusses political instability in Egypt and assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take.

Read a collection of Foreign Affairs articles on Egypt, including essays by Anwar el-Sadat, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, and Fouad Ajami.

MIDDLE EAST: Iran Opposition Leader under House Arrest

According to a report posted on his website, the Iranian opposition leader Mehdi Karroubi was placed under house arrest (BBC) by police following his calls for protests in support of the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia.

Review this interactive timeline exploring the history of U.S.-Iran relations.

PACIFIC RIM: Trial of Jemaah Islamiah Cleric Adjourned

The trial of Indonesia's Bakar Bashir, the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiah (al-Jazeera), adjourned Thursday on a technicality, but is set to resume next week. Bashir is charged with helping launch a terror training camp and funding terror organizations--crimes that warrant the death penalty in Indonesia.

China: According to a forthcoming report from McAfee (WSJ), hackers based in China have conducted a campaign of cyberespionage against five major Western energy companies. The cyberattacks stole highly sensitive internal documents, including proprietary information about oil- and gas-field operations.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: India, Pakistan Agree to Resume Peace Talks

India and Pakistan agreed to restart peace talks "on all issues," which were suspended after Pakistan-based militants attacked Mumbai in 2008. Pakistan said its foreign minister would visit India by July to assess progress in the peace dialogue (HindustanTimes).

Pakistan: A teen suicide bomber killed thirty troops outside an army recruitment center (Reuters) in the town of Mardan. No militant faction immediately claimed responsibility for the violence, though the Pakistani Taliban has perpetrated such attacks in the past.

High food prices, lack of jobs, and widespread corruption are as rampant in Pakistan as they are in Egypt. Analysts warn against a return to military rule in search of stability and recommend greater economic reforms.

AFRICA: Bashir Seeks Reprieve from War Crimes Warrant

Sudan's UN ambassador pressed the international body to grant President Omar al-Bashir a reprieve from charges related to war crimes in the Darfur region in return for his peaceful acknowledgement of the nation's independence referendum (BBC).

Ivory Coast: The post-election violence in Ivory Coast has poured over thirty thousand refugees into neighboring Liberia, according to the UN refugee agency (allAfrica). Negotiators from the African Union are in capital Abidjan to mediate a resolution to the political impasse.

AMERICAS: Pentagon Will Not Support Contractor Mergers

The Defense Department will not support mergers between the largest defense contractors (FT), even though consolidation deals are expected to increase as U.S. defense spending comes increasingly under pressure.

In an op-ed for the Weekly Standard, CFR's Max Boot argues that plans for further cuts in defense spending will have detrimental effects on the international security commitments of the United States.

Brazil: Brazil's government announced plans to slice $30 billion from spending in an effort to relax pressure on the central bank (Bloomberg) and raise interest rates. According to analysts, the size of the proposed cuts was expected, but questions remain as to how these reductions will be achieved.

EUROPE: Former WikiLeaks Employee Condemns Assange

In a new book, Daniel Domscheit-Berg, a former WikiLeaks colleague of Julian Assange (CNN), describes his old boss as having "a very free and easy relationship with the truth." WikiLeaks staff accuses Domscheit-Berg of theft and sabotage, and are taking legal action against him.

France: Protesting judges have caused almost all of France's courthouses to close (DeutscheWelle) this week in a confrontation with President Nicolas Sarkozy, who accused them of incompetence and dysfunction relating to the murder case of an eighteen-year-old girl.

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