Rabu, 09 Februari 2011

From the Council on Foreign Relations

February 9, 2011

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

- Egypt's Protests Gaining Ground
- North-South Korea Military Talks Collapse
- Trial Sought for Italian PM
- U.S. House Rejects Patriot Act Extension

Top of the Agenda: Egypt's Protests Gaining Ground

Pro-democracy demonstrations are gaining momentum in Cairo (al-Jazeera), with some protestors moving from Tahrir Square to set up camp in the area beyond the parliament buildings. Protestors are demanding the Egyptian assembly's immediate dissolution, and the cabinet building in Cairo has been evacuated. The largest crowd of protesters in two weeks piled into the square and into Cairo's streets yesterday and today, as workers joined protestors (NYT) and went out on strike. As pressure for free and fair elections grows, some democracy advocates worry that a ballot slated for September (WashPost) could set back the country's reform movement.

Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates, all of which are concerned about the events in Egypt, asked the United States not to pressure Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak (NYT) too hard. According to a poll (LAT) by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 57 percent say the Obama administration is handling the situation in Egypt "about right." Republicans are less likely than Democrats or independents to give the president high marks.

Analysis

High food prices, lack of jobs, and widespread corruption are as rampant in Pakistan as they are in Egypt. Analysts warn against a return to military rule in search of stability and recommend Islamabad press for greater economic reforms.

With food prices at historic levels, unrest is mounting around the world, particularly in import-dependent regions like the Middle East. CFR's Laurie Garrett says to meet demand going forward, countries will need to enhance food production and efficiencies.

Former secretary of state James A. Baker says the crucial U.S. alliance with a politically stunted Egyptian regime poses major difficulties for the Obama administration as it tries to balance U.S. values with national interests.

This issue guide provides a range of background and analysis on the protests in the Middle East and North Africa.

Background:

The anti-government protests in Egypt will likely mean a greater political role for the Muslim Brotherhood, analysts say. But this Backgrounder notes the divide in views over whether the Islamist group will choose a path of moderation or extremism.

This CFR Contingency Planning Memo discusses political instability in Egypt and assesses the possibility of a troubled leadership succession or an Islamist push for political power, the implications for the United States, and policy steps the U.S. government might take.

Read a collection of Foreign Affairs articles on Egypt, including essays by Anwar el-Sadat, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, and Fouad Ajami.

MIDDLE EAST: Bombs Kill Seven in Iraq

Three bombs exploded (BBC) near a Kurdish security headquarters in Kirkuk, killing at least seven people and wounding more than seventy, police say.

PACIFIC RIM: North-South Korea Military Talks Collapse

Military talks aimed at easing tension between North and South Korea broke down after no progress (KoreaHerald) Wednesday, officials in Seoul say. The talks were the first since the North shelled a South Korean island in November, killing four people. The two sides failed to reach a consensus over the agenda for higher-level talks.

This CFR Contingency Planning Memo says further provocations by North Korea, as well as other dangerous military interactions on or around the Korean peninsula, remain a serious risk and carry the danger of unintended escalation.

Taiwan: Taiwan has detained a senior general on suspicion of spying for China (BBC), the highest ranking officer involved in alleged espionage in decades. Taiwan's defense ministry says Major General Lo Hsien-che was recruited by China in 2004 while he was stationed in Thailand.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Pakistan Cabinet Quits for Revamp

Pakistan's cabinet quit as part of plans to reduce the number of ministers by more than a third and cut government spending (AFP) amid an economic crisis. The government is under huge pressure from the opposition to implement reforms, in order to head off any possible threat of a call for early elections.

Afghanistan: An Afghan government probe of private security companies has accused sixteen firms of violations (WashPost) that include employing too many guards, failing to pay taxes for up to two years, and keeping unregistered weapons and armored vehicles. Several prominent U.S. and British security firms in Afghanistan were among the accused. The government has moved away from threatening to disband these firms, and appears intent on imposing fines.

AFRICA: Southern Sudanese Minister Killed

The minister of cooperatives and rural development in South Sudan, Jimmy Lemi, was shot dead (Xinhua) in his office in Juba, days after referendum results confirmed that the oil-rich South Sudan will become Africa's newest independent state.

AMERICAS: U.S. House Rejects Patriot Act Extension

The U.S. House of Representatives rejected a measure that would have extended Patriot Act provisions (LAT) through December 2011. As it stands, many of the key components of the terrorist surveillance law expire at the end of February.

Brazil/Chile: Global commodity prices will continue to drive inflation in Brazil and Chile, according to a report from Capital Economics (MercoPress). However, currency concerns should keep the hikes gradual.

EUROPE: Trial Sought for Italian PM

Italian prosecutors have requested an immediate trial for Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi (NYT) on charges related to abuse of power and sex with an underage prostitute. Berlusconi denied the charges.

Russia: Authorities have identified the suicide bomber responsible for last month's explosion at a Moscow airport (DeutscheWelle), which killed more than thirty people. Security officials say the twenty-year-old attacker was from the North Caucasus region, and they detained his brother and sister for their alleged involvement.

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