January 3, 2010 View this newsletter as a web page on CFR's website. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY - Pakistan Government Struggles to Persevere - Egypt's Christians Protest Following Attack - Ivory Coast Crisis Negotiations Continue - Rouseff Takes Power in Brazil Top of the Agenda: Pakistan Government Struggles to Persevere The government of Pakistan experienced a dramatic shock on Sunday when the country's ruling parliamentary majority, led by the Pakistan People's party (PPP) and Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani (BBC), lost the support of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), a critical member of its governing alliance in the National Assembly. Senior MQM leaders cited frustration over new increases in state-controlled gas prices and higher taxation as the basis for their withdrawal. The decision makes PPP a minority and raises the specter of a no-confidence vote (al-Jazeera) that would trigger new elections for the U.S.-allied government. Some analysts fear the resulting political uproar could result in another intervention by the Pakistani military (Guardian). In the short term, analysts predict the episode will distract from the government's pursuit of the Taliban and hinder an effort to broaden taxes, rein in the country's balance of payments, and secure future lending agreements from the IMF (BusinessWeek). Since 2001, the United States has provided billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan in order to strengthen its civilian government and preserve a strategic military alliance in the fight against a Taliban and al-Qaeda insurgency (WashPost) based largely in the country's vital border regions. Analysis: The Taliban needs to be convinced of a firm U.S. commitment in Afghanistan before it will negotiate a settlement, says CFR's Stephen Biddle, and any deal will have to also involve the Pakistani, U.S., and Afghan governments. This op-ed from the LA Times discusses the far-reaching damage done by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Kahn and his nuclear proliferation network. Background: This CFR Task Force Report assesses U.S. objectives, strategy, and policy options in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan's stability is of great consequence to regional and international security. CFR's Crisis Guide: Pakistan examines the roots of the country's challenges, what it means for the region and the world, and some plausible futures for the country. MIDDLE EAST: Egypt's Christians Protest Following Attack Following Saturday's suicide bombing of a Coptic Christian church (al-Jazeera) that killed twenty-one people, hundreds gathered in Cairo and Alexandria to demand greater government protection for the nation's 10 percent Christian minority. Egyptian police said they are targeting their investigation on an Alexandria-based group inspired by al-Qaeda. Iraq: Two U.S. servicemen were killed in central Iraq yesterday. Despite the August 2010 withdrawal of combat troops, the deaths coincide with a spate of assassinations (WashPost) targeting Iraqi police officers, government officials, and Christians. Iraq's coalition government is a promising resolution to nine months of political wrangling, says expert Joost Hiltermann, but questions loom about how effective the power-sharing agreement will be. PACIFIC RIM: Seoul Stresses Talks Ahead of U.S. Envoy Visit One day before a visit from the U.S. envoy for North Korea, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak reiterated his country's support for a return to stalled Six Party Talks (BBC). In addition, three state-run North Korean papers issued a joint editorial over the weekend, stressing Pyongyang's desire to denuclearize the peninsula (Xinhua) and reunify the country. Japan: Diplomatic cables revealed by WikiLeaks on Monday referenced discussions between the United States and Japan regarding potential action against the prominent anti-whaling group Sea Shepherds Conservation Society (AP). The cables describe the group's controversial actions as an "irritant" in U.S.-Japanese relations and mention revoking the U.S.-based group's tax-exempt status. SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Developing Nations Narrow Manufacturing Gap December factory output growth (FT) slowed in India and China, but strengthened in South Korea and Taiwan, decreasing a gap in manufacturing activity between Asia's developing countries and the region's established economic powerhouses. The expansionary trends add to fears that the region may be at risk for inflation. CFR Senior Fellow Jagdish Bhagwati testifies before the Indian parliament about the impact of economic reforms made in the early 1990s, and the way forward. AFRICA: Ivory Coast Crisis Negotiations Continue Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga will represent the African Union in another round of talks aimed at brokering a peaceful resolution to the stand-off between Ivorian presidential contenders (al-Jazeera) Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara. Gbagbo refuses to yield to international calls for his removal. The UN says that at least 179 people have been killed thus far in post-election violence. East Africa: Uganda and Kenya have increased military preparedness in anticipation of Sudan's referendum (allAfrica) on independence and the potential for associated violence. AMERICAS: Rouseff Takes Power in Brazil In her inaugural address, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff foreshadowed a "preserved and deepened" relationship with the United States and alluded to the potential for a permanent seat for Brazil on the UN Security Council. United States: Ahead of his ascension to speaker of the House on Wednesday, John Boehner will highlight a commitment to austerity and frugality. Boehner will oversee a new Republican majority (WashPost) in the U.S. House of Representatives that has vowed to overturn several pieces of Obama-endorsed legislation. This CFR Expert Roundup examines how resolving pressing domestic policy issues, from education to infrastructure, could help bolster U.S. leadership internationally. EUROPE: Russia Suspends Tupolev Flights Following Crash The Russian transportation authority grounded all Tupolev-154B (RIANovosti) aircraft indefinitely pending an investigation of a fatal jet explosion over the weekend that killed three passengers. There are fourteen Tu-154Bs currently in operation nationwide. Belarus: International observers criticized Minsk for its decision to oust the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (WashPost), a prominent UN watchdog group focusing on human rights and freedom of the press. The removal comes amid widespread allegations of fraud and political repression linked to the disputed reelection of President Alexander Lukashenko.

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