Senin, 20 Desember 2010

From the Council on Foreign Relations

December 20, 2010

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Executive Summary

- South Korea Holds Drills despite Pressure
- New Delays in Forming Iraqi Government
- Republican Opposition to New START
- Election Sparks Mass Protests in Belarus

Top of the Agenda: South Korea Holds Drill amid Pressure

In the face of mounting international tension, South Korea went ahead with scheduled live-fire drills from Yeonpyeong Island (NYT), the target of shelling by the North last month that killed four South Koreans. North Korea condemned the training exercises, but did not respond with military force despite threats of retaliation. South Korean military officials say the country remains on “high alert."

On Sunday, fears of escalation moved Russia to request an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council (WSJ) aimed at averting potential conflict. Member nations were unable to reach a consensus on language regarding the dispute. The Council's failure to reach a compromise stemmed from disagreement over whether to directly condemn North Korea for the crisis. China, in particular, objected to condemnation of the North.

Observers say South Korea was determined to proceed with the drills after facing a wave of domestic criticism (FT) over a perceived weak response to the North's attacks last month. Ahead of the maneuvers, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson held high-level talks with North Korea's military and, according to CNN, reached an accord that would allow UN nuclear inspectors (CNN) back into the country. There has been no official comment on this.

Analysis:

Robert Haddick at ForeignPolicy.com asks whether North Korea could be the next Afghanistan.

This Contingency Planning Memo from CFR's Paul Stares suggests further provocations by North Korea as well as other dangerous military interactions on or around the Korean peninsula remain a serious risk and carry the danger of unintended escalation.

In this recent CFR.org interview, Leon V. Sigal calls for the United States and South Korea to support a peace process and political and economic engagement with North Korea.

MIDDLE EAST: Al-Maliki Delays Announcing New Govt

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was scheduled to announce some important cabinet positions on Monday, but some lawmakers say the decision could be postponed until later in the week. Al-Maliki has until this weekend to form a government before a constitutionally set deadline (CNN).

CFR's Mohamad Bazzi examines al-Maliki's second term as prime minister of Iraq.

Iran: The Iranian government decided to cut food and fuel subsidies (al-Jazeera) in a move that some observers believe may risk a round of protests similar to those in 2007.

PACIFIC RIM: South Korea Holds Chinese Fishermen

South Korea detained eight Chinese fishermen (FT) after their boat struck a patrol ship and capsized in Korean waters. Experts suggest the incident will harm relations with China at a time when the U.S. is urging the country to play a larger role in mediating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA: Indian PM Ready for Telecom Probe

India Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says he has nothing to hide in the telecom scandal (CNN) embroiling his government. Singh's administration has faced opposition criticism since a public audit discovered potentially corrupt transactions with telecom companies.

Afghanistan: In the Wall Street Journal, CFR President Richard Haass says the U.S. commitment in troops and treasure in Afghanistan, reaffirmed last week, is not justified and al-Qaeda can be deterred there with many fewer troops.

AFRICA: Obama Forges Diplomacy in Sudan

Ahead of the historic independence referendum (allAfrica), the Obama Administration urged African leaders “that an on-time referendum is the best means of preventing the resumption of a full-scale war.”

Ivory Coast: UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned against attacks on the United Nations peacekeeping force deployed to document human rights violations (UN News Service) following the nation's contested presidential elections.

AMERICAS: Republican Maintain Opposition to START

Two top Senate Republicans declared they would vote against the New START strategic nuclear arms treaty (NYT) with Russia as Democrats continue trying to forge the two thirds majority necessary for ratification.

CFR's James M. Lindsay discusses the political maneuvering taking place in the final hours of START debate.

A U.S company plans to re-open a California mine that contains rare earth metals (WSJ) that serve as critical manufacturing components of high-tech products. The decision was made following China's recent restrictions placed on global supply.

Colombia: According to a leaked diplomatic cable, former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe considered allowing U.S. military forces access to seven Colombian bases (MercoPress). The bilateral agreement, later ruled unconstitutional, came amid Colombian fears of a military threat from Venezuela.

EUROPE: Election Sparks Mass Protests in Belarus

Belarusian police arrested hundreds of protestors following a contested presidential election in which incumbent Aleksandr Lukashenko (DeutscheWelle) won a third term.

U.K.: British police arrested twelve men suspected of planning a terrorist attack (CNN). The arrests were made as part of large-scale, MI5 coordinated raid involving three British cities.

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